Another article that given current actual trends, needs to be challenged:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200827130612.htm
The global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is not going up. This is the objective measurement of the total energy of storms over the planet. So lets, in a nice way, bring up some challenges to this.
First of all, one severe year in the Caribbean does not a trend make. Since then and before then and in fact in many years, the Caribbean has been referred to as the graveyard of storms, partly because of the warming! How so? If the waters west of NW South America are warm, then pressures are naturally lower over NW S America, This increases low level easterlies through the western and central Caribbean. When that happens, when air is accelerating away from an area (the surrounding Atlantic basin) then there is large scale sinking air to replace it for one, and more wind shear for 2. Both are the reason why many meteorologists see the Caribbean as a gauntlet that the storms have to run. In fact, back in the 1960s, when I was young, I overheard something I dubbed “ The Texas A and M rule” on Caribbean storms. While Hurricane Flora was entering the Caribbean, my father, a student there at the time, brought me up to the weather station. ( He was the oldest freshman on the A and M campus in 1961 and got his degree in meteorology at age 35, so little Joey was on board for the ride). In any case one of the other students had remarked that for a Caribbean storm to intensify it has to increase its distance from South America and move between 8 and 18 MPH. The aforementioned phenomena I talked about with the low pressures over NW south America actually cause these to accelerate west away from that rule and the distance does not increase from the S American coast east of 70 west. . BTW I learned that from Gil Clark in the National Hurricane Center in the 1980s, so forecasters have been aware of these things for many years.
The Caribbean has always been a feast or famine place. Hispaniola got hit by 3 major hurricanes in 4 years, Flora in 1963 (which then stalled over Cuba, prompting Castro to accuse the U.S. of manipulating the weather to destroy his island… good to know that the usual suspects were on board with controlling climate back then too eh?) Cleo in 1964 and Inez in 1966. Throw in Betsy which struck the Bahamas, Florida and Louisiana in 1965,. Then Beulah 1967 which reached Texas as a major and you get 5 years in a row back in the 1960s where major hurricane hits ran, if not thru the Caribbean, then close by, that impacted people. 2018/2019 no such thing happened after the big year in 2017 and this year, the weatherbell.com pre-season forecast, just like in 2017 had the islands targeted but so far only 2 tropical storms there. I showed that scoreboard in the Laura post.
Now if the water is a bit warmer and you get the right conditions, then yes, a storm could be a tad bit stronger than it might have been before. Or will it? Hurricanes, despite using warm water for energy, don’t always have everything lined up for the worst case. In fact the worst case is rare, which we are seeing this year. While the media is fixated on total number, the intensity of the storms on an individual basis is one of the lowest on record (ACE/Storm) 2017 was one of the highest on record, over 13/storm, but the DECADE of the 1950s was the highest on record, over 10/storm. Its like the difference between having a SEC schedule (1950s ACE) and this years big 10. Wait a minute, that would be 0/storm so pick another conference.
So let me concede one point. If the freak event lines up then the storms can be strong. But how does one explain the 1935 hurricane then, how did that get so strong? or Camille?. While people gawked at Laura, she came through the Caribbean as a tropical storm, not some cat 3,4,or 5 major. Isaias, why didn’t it explode? Why did Gonzalo die (hint rule above)
There are many factors involved in tropical cyclones and just because it’s a bit warmer does not mean everything has to be worse. In fact the warming may be distorting the overall global weather pattern enough so while you might see more small storms further north, but there is a disruption of the big classic long tracked beast that maintained intensity all the way to the coast. Each storm is different and each storm has to be looked at individually.
But its hurricane season and hurricanes are fun to weaponize for the man made climate change agenda, hence the articles like this. I just like to point out there are 2 sides to every story. And while I marvel at the power of these storms like everyone else, I marvel even more at the people that report on these things without even bothering to get another perspective. While I show things from the old days like the examples above, being similar, when it comes to the reporting now, its nothing like it used to be. A time when people reporting things always looked for a different angle to what they were being told, not just relay something that everyone simply smiles and nods at.
