Analysis: Glaciers Defy Alarmist Predictions
By Jack Dini
The world’s glaciers have not been following along with the CO2 driven catastrophic melting narrative.
Climatologists stunned, baffled: new scientific studies show glacier ice sheet melt rates, rapidly decelerating, reports Kenneth Richard. 1
Studies revealed that glaciers and ice caps only contributed 0.41 mm/yr (~1.6 inches per century) to sea level rise between 2003 and 2010. This was an overall 30% deceleration from previous year’s estimates, with glaciers in the high mountains of Asia effectively in balance.
This rate is well less than half the melt rate contribution for the first 5 or 6 years of the 21st century, and even slightly less than the rate for the entire 1961-2004 period (0.4 to 0.5 mm/yr).
Furthermore, the high mountain glaciers of Asia have actually begun advancing since 2009 through 2014.
Greenland’s largest glacier (Jakobshavn has quite abruptly thickened since 2016. The thickening has been so profound the ice elevations are nearly back to 2010-2011 levels. The nearby ocean has cooled ~ 1.5C, a return to 1980s era-temperatures. 2
In the 2000s, Jacobshavn was the fastest flowing ice stream on the island, traveling at 17 km a year. But now it’s all change. Jacobshavn is traveling much more slowly, and its trunk has even begun to thicken and lengthen.
Where previously this was dropping in height by 20m a year, it’s now thickening by 20m a year.3
The 47 largest Greenland glaciers also experienced a ‘relatively stable’ period of rather insignificant retreat from 2013 to 2018. 4
In a study of 50 Alaskan glaciers for the warming period between 1972-2012, there was; “no corresponding change in the number of glaciers retreating nor do we see corresponding accelerations of retreat rates. To the contrary, many glaciers in the region have advanced.” 5
In the Southern Hemisphere, an accumulating collection of (29) referenced studies indicate that not only has the Southern Ocean, Antarctic Peninsula, West Antarctica, and East Antarctica been cooling or not warming in recent decades, but many regional glaciers have begun advancing again. 6
The New York Times reported scientists in Antarctica have recorded, for the first time, unusually warm water beneath a glacier the size of Florida that is already melting and contributing to a rise in sea levels. The researchers, working on the Thwaites Glacier, recorded water temperatures at the base of the ice more than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, above the normal freezing point. 7
However, both the quoted scientists and the New York Times article failed to mention that the Thwaites Glacier is subject to volcanic activity.
Research in 2018 funded by the National Science reported: Previously unsuspected volcanic activity confirmed under (WAIS) West Antarctic Ice Sheet at Pine Island Glacier. 8 The Times missed this or simply ignored it.
Recent data have been presented for 11 Antarctic stations under operation, scattered along the Antarctic coastline and operated by various countries. These results are not impacted by volcanic activity. Results? Zero warming which is really inconvenient news for global warming activists. 9
Glaciers in Sweden melted ~ 7 times faster during the 1920s to 1960s than from 1970 to 2015. 10
A study on Swiss glaciers showed that the fastest melting was in the 1860s and 1870s, long before the first coal fired power. The glaciers have been going back and forth in cycles that somehow have no correlation with human emissions. 11
In 2007, IPCC claimed the Himalayan region has been warming so rapidly its glaciers would disappear by 2035. IPCC’s fake glacier melt claim came from activists. It rests on two 1999 magazine (phone) interviews with glaciologist Syed Hasnain, which were then recycled without further investigation in a 2005 report by the environmental activist group WWF. The bottom line: 88% of Himalayan glaciers are stable or advancing. 12
Joanne Nova sums this up well, “Climate models can’t predict any of these turning points, don’t understand any of these cycles, but ‘doom is coming.” 11
- Kenneth Richard, “Glacier, ice sheet melt rates slowing”
- Kenneth Richard, “New study: Greenland’s largest glacier has rapidly thickened since 2016…fueled by 1,5 C regional ocean cooling”
- Jonathan Amos, “Jacobshavn Isbrae: Mighty Greenland glacier slams on brakes”
- Jonas K. Andersen et al., “Update of annual calving front lines for 47 marine terminating outlet glaciers in Greenland (1999-2018), Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
- R. W. McNabb and R. Hock, “Alaska tidewater glacier terminus positions, 1948-2012”
- Sebastian Luning et al., “The medieval climate anomaly in Antarctica,” Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
- Shola Lawal, “Temperatures at Florida-size glacier in Antarctica alarm scientists”
- “Previously unsuspected volcanic activity confirmed under West Antarctic Ice Sheet at Pine Island Glacier,” National Science Foundation
- P. Gosselin, “10 of 10 coastal Antarctic stations show zero warming over past decades. Failed scientists need to resign”
- Kenneth Richard, “New paper: Sweden glaciers gained mass from 1970-2001 after rapid 1920s-60s retreat”
- Joanne Nova, “Evil nature caused Swiss glaciers to melt faster in 1860”
- Marc Morano, “Observations show no warming trend, mostly stable glaciers in the Himalayas contradicting IPCC’s fake news’