90 Leading Italian Scientists Sign Climate Petition: ‘UNPROVEN HYPOTHESIS’ – Catastrophic Predictions ‘NOT REALISTIC’
To the President of the Republic
To the President of the Senate
To the President of the Chamber of Deputies
To the President of the Council
PETITION ON GLOBAL ANTHROPIC HEATING (Anthropogenic Global Warming, human-caused global warming)
The undersigned, citizens and scientists, send a warm invitation to political leaders to adopt environmental protection policies consistent with scientific knowledge.
In particular, it is urgent to combat pollution where it occurs, according to the indications of the best science. In this regard, the delay with which the wealth of knowledge made available by the world of research is used to reduce the anthropogenic pollutant emissions widely present in both continental and marine environmental systems is deplorable.
But we must be aware that CARBON DIOXIDE IS ITSELF NOT A POLLUTANT. On the contrary, it is indispensable for life on our planet.
In recent decades, a thesis has spread that the heating of the Earth’s surface of around 0.9°C observed from 1850 onwards would be anomalous and caused exclusively by human activities, in particular by the emission of CO2 from the use of fossil fuels in the atmosphere.
This is the thesis of anthropic global warming [Anthropogenic Global Warming] promoted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations, whose consequences would be environmental changes so serious as to fear enormous damage in an imminent future, unless drastic and costly mitigation measures do not are immediately adopted.
In this regard, many nations of the world have joined programs to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and are pressed, even by a throbbing propaganda, to adopt increasingly demanding programs whose implementation, which involves heavy burdens on the economies of the individual member states, it would depend on climate control and, therefore, the “salvation” of the planet.
However, the anthropic origin of global warming IS AN UNPROVEN HYPOTHESIS, deduced only from some climate models, that is complex computer programs, called General Circulation Models .
On the contrary, the scientific literature has increasingly highlighted the existence of a natural climatic variability that the models are not able to reproduce.
This natural variability explains a substantial part of global warming observed since 1850.
The anthropic responsibility for climate change observed in the last century is therefore UNJUSTIFIABLY EXAGGERATED and catastrophic predictions ARE NOT REALISTIC.
The climate is the most complex system on our planet, so it needs to be addressed with methods that are adequate and consistent with its level of complexity.
Climate simulation models do not reproduce the observed natural variability of the climate and, in particular, do not reconstruct the warm periods of the last 10,000 years. These were repeated about every thousand years and include the well-known Medieval Warm Period , the Hot Roman Period, and generally warm periods during the Optimal Holocene period.
These PERIODS OF THE PAST HAVE ALSO BEEN WARMER THAN THE PRESENT PERIOD, despite the CO2 concentration being lower than the current, while they are related to the millennial cycles of solar activity. These effects are not reproduced by the models.
It should be remembered that the heating observed since 1900 has actually started in the 1700s, i.e. at the minimum of the Little Ice Age , the coldest period of the last 10,000 years (corresponding to the millennial minimum of solar activity that astrophysicists call Maunder Minimal Solar ). Since then, solar activity, following its millennial cycle, has increased by heating the earth’s surface.
Furthermore, the models fail to reproduce the known climatic oscillations of about 60 years.
These were responsible, for example, for a warming period (1850-1880) followed by a cooling period (1880-1910), a heating (1910-40), a cooling (1940-70) and a a new warming period (1970-2000) similar to that observed 60 years earlier.
The following years (2000-2019) saw the increase not predicted by the models of about 0.2 ° C [two one-hundredths of a degree]per decade, but a substantial climatic stability that was sporadically interrupted by the rapid natural oscillations of the equatorial Pacific ocean, known as the El Nino Southern Oscillations , like the one that led to temporary warming between 2015 and 2016.
The media also claim that extreme events, such as hurricanes and cyclones, have increased alarmingly. Conversely, these events, like many climate systems, have been modulated since the aforementioned 60-year cycle.
For example, if we consider the official data from 1880 on tropical Atlantic cyclones that hit North America, they appear to have a strong 60-year oscillation, correlated with the Atlantic Ocean’s thermal oscillation called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation .
The peaks observed per decade are compatible with each other in the years 1880-90, 1940-50 and 1995-2005. From 2005 to 2015 the number of cyclones decreased precisely following the aforementioned cycle. Thus, in the period 1880-2015, between number of cyclones (which oscillates) and CO 2 (which increases monotonically) there is no correlation.
The climate system is not yet sufficiently understood. Although it is true that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, according to the IPCC itself the climate sensitivity to its increase in the atmosphere is still extremely uncertain.
It is estimated that a doubling of the concentration of atmospheric CO2, from around 300 ppm pre-industrial to 600 ppm, can raise the average temperature of the planet from a minimum of 1 ° C to a maximum of 5 ° C.
This uncertainty is enormous.
In any case, many recent studies based on experimental data estimate that the climate sensitivity to CO2 is CONSIDERABLY LOWER than that estimated by the IPCC models.
Then, it is scientifically unrealistic to attribute to humans the responsibility for warming observed from the past century to today. The advanced alarmist forecasts, therefore, are not credible, since they are based on models whose results contradict the experimental data.
All the evidence suggests that these MODELS OVERESTIMATE the anthropic contribution and underestimate the natural climatic variability, especially that induced by the sun, the moon, and ocean oscillations.
Finally, the media release the message according to which, with regard to the human cause
of current climate change, there would be an almost unanimous consensus among scientists that the scientific debate would be closed.
However, first of all we must be aware that the scientific method dictates that the facts, and not the number of adherents, make a conjecture a consolidated scientific theory .
In any case, the same alleged consensus DOES NOT EXIST. In fact, there is a remarkable variability of opinions among specialists – climatologists, meteorologists, geologists, geophysicists, astrophysicists – many of whom recognize an important natural contribution to global warming observed from the pre-industrial period and even from the post-war period to today.
There have also been petitions signed by thousands of scientists who have expressed dissent with the conjecture of anthropic global warming.
These include the one promoted in 2007 by the physicist F. Seitz, former president of the American National Academy of Sciences, and the one promoted by the Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), whose 2009 report concludes that “Nature does not the activity of Man governs the climate ”.
In conclusion, given the CRUCIAL IMPORTANCE THAT FOSSIL FUELS have for the energy supply of humanity, we suggest that they do not adhere to policies of uncritical reduction of the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere with THE ILLUSORY PRETENSE OF GOVERNING THE CLIMATE.
- Uberto Crescenti, Emeritus Professor of Applied Geology, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara, formerly Rector and President of the Italian Geological Society.
- Giuliano Panza, Professor of Seismology, University of Trieste, Academician of the Lincei and of the National Academy of Sciences, called of the XL, 2018 International Award of the American Geophysical Union.
- Alberto Prestininzi, Professor of Applied Geology, La Sapienza University, Rome, formerly Scientific Editor in Chief of the magazine International IJEGE and Director of the Geological Risk Forecasting and Control Research Center.
- Franco Prodi, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, University of Ferrara.
- Franco Battaglia, Professor of Physical Chemistry, University of Modena; Galileo Movement 2001.
- Mario Giaccio, Professor of Technology and Economics of Energy Sources, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara, former Dean of the Faculty of Economics.
- Enrico Miccadei, Professor of Physical Geography and Geomorphology, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.
- Nicola Scafetta, Professor of Atmospheric Physics and Oceanography, Federico II University, Naples.
- Antonino Zichichi, Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Bologna, Founder and President of the Ettore Center for Scientific Culture Majorana di Erice.
- Renato Angelo Ricci, Professor Emeritus of Physics, University of Padua, former President of the Italian Society of Physics and Society European Physics; Galileo Movement 2001.
- Aurelio Misiti, Professor of Health-Environmental Engineering, University of Sapienza, Rome.
- Antonio Brambati, Professor of Sedimentology, University of Trieste, Project Manager Paleoclima-mare of PNRA, already President of the National Oceanography Commission.
- Cesare Barbieri, Professor Emeritus of Astronomy, University of Padua.
6. Sergio Bartalucci, Physicist, President of the Association of Scientists and Tecnolgi for Italian Research.
7. Antonio Bianchini, Professor of Astronomy, University of Padua.
8. Paolo Bonifazi, former Director of the Institute of Interplanetary Space Physics, National Astrophysical Institute.
9. Francesca Bozzano, Professor of Applied Geology, Sapienza University of Rome, Director of the CERI Research Center.
10. Marcello Buccolini, Professor of Geomorphology, University University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.
11. Paolo Budetta, Professor of Applied Geology, University of Naples.
12. Monia Calista, Researcher in Applied Geology, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.
13. Giovanni Carboni, Professor of Physics, Tor Vergata University, Rome; Galileo Movement 2001.
14. Franco Casali, Professor of Physics, University of Bologna and Bologna Academy of Sciences.
15. Giuliano Ceradelli, Engineer and climatologist, ALDAI.
16. Domenico Corradini, Professor of Historical Geology, University of Modena.
17. Fulvio Crisciani, Professor of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, University of Trieste and Marine Sciences Institute, Cnr, Trieste.
18. Carlo Esposito, Professor of Remote Sensing, La Sapienza University, Rome.
19. Mario Floris, Professor of Remote Sensing, University of Padua.
20. Gianni Fochi, Chemist, Scuola Normale Superiore of Pisa; scientific journalist.
21. Mario Gaeta, Professor of Volcanology, La Sapienza University, Rome.
22. Giuseppe Gambolati, Fellow of the American Geophysica Union, Professor of Numerical Methods, University of Padua.
23. Rinaldo Genevois, Professor of Applied Geology, University of Padua.
24. Carlo Lombardi, Professor of Nuclear Plants, Milan Polytechnic.
25. Luigi Marino, Geologist, Geological Risk Forecasting and Control Research Center, La Sapienza University, Rome.
26. Salvatore Martino, Professor of Seismic Microzonation, La Sapienza University, Rome.
27. Paolo Mazzanti, Professor of Satellite Interferometry, La Sapienza University, Rome.
28. Adriano Mazzarella, Professor of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Naples.
29. Carlo Merli, Professor of Environmental Technologies, La Sapienza University, Rome.
30. Alberto Mirandola, Professor of Applied Energetics and President of the Research Doctorate in Energy, University of Padua.
31. Renzo Mosetti, Professor of Oceanography, University of Trieste, former Director of the Department of Oceanography, Istituto OGS, Trieste.
- 32.Daniela Novembre, Researcher in Mining Geological Resources and Mineralogical Applications, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti Pescara.
33. Sergio Ortolani, Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Padua.
34. Antonio Pasculli, Researcher of Applied Geology, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.
35. Ernesto Pedrocchi, Professor Emeritus of Energetics, Polytechnic of Milan.
36. Tommaso Piacentini, Professor of Physical Geography and Geomorphology, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.
37. Guido Possa, nuclear engineer, formerly Deputy Minister Miur.
38. Mario Luigi Rainone, Professor of Applied Geology, University of Chieti-Pescara.
39. Francesca Quercia, Geologist, Research Director, Ispra.
40. Giancarlo Ruocco, Professor of Structure of Matter, La Sapienza University, Rome.
41. Sergio Rusi, Professor of Hydrogeology, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.
42. Massimo Salleolini, Professor of Applied Hydrogeology and Environmental Hydrology, University of Siena.
43. Emanuele Scalcione, Head of Regional Agrometeorological Service Alsia, Basilicata.
44. Nicola Sciarra, Professor of Applied Geology, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.
45. Leonello Serva, Geologist, Director of Geological Services of Italy; Galileo Movement 2001.
46. Luigi Stedile, Geologist, Geological Risk Review and Control Research Center, La Sapienza University, Rome.
47. Giorgio Trenta, Physicist and Physician, President Emeritus of the Italian Association of Medical Radiation Protection; Galileo Movement 2001.
48. Gianluca Valenzise, Director of Research, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome.
49. Corrado Venturini, Professor of Structural Geology, University of Bologna.
50. Franco Zavatti, Astronomy Researcher, University of Bologna.
51. Achille Balduzzi, Geologist, Agip-Eni.
52. Claudio Borri, Professor of Construction Sciences, University of Florence, Coordinator of the International Doctorate in Engineering Civil.
53. Pino Cippitelli, Agip-Eni Geologist.
54. Franco Di Cesare, Executive, Agip-Eni.
55. Serena Doria, Researcher of Probability and Mathematical Statistics, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.
56. Enzo Siviero, Professor of Ponti, University of Venice, Rector of the e-Campus University.
57. Pietro Agostini, Engineer, Association of Scientists and Tecnolgi for Italian Research.
58. Donato Barone, Engineer.
59. Roberto Bonucchi, Teacher.
60. Gianfranco Brignoli, Geologist.
61. Alessandro Chiaudani, Ph.D. agronomist, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.
62. Antonio Clemente, Researcher in Urban Planning, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.
63. Luigi Fressoia, urban architect, Perugia.
64. Sabino Gallo, nuclear engineer.
65. Daniela Giannessi, First Researcher, Ipcf-Cnr, Pisa.
66. Roberto Grassi, Engineer, Director of G&G, Rome.
67. Alberto Lagi, Engineer, President of Restoration of Complex Damaged Plants.
68. Luciano Lepori, Ipcf-Cnr Researcher, Pisa.
69. Roberto Madrigali, Metereologo.
70. Ludovica Manusardi, Nuclear physicist and scientific journalist, Ugis.
71. Maria Massullo, Technologist, Enea-Casaccia, Rome.
72. Enrico Matteoli, First Researcher, Ipcf-Cnr, Pisa.
73. Gabriella Mincione, Professor of Sciences and Techniques of Laboratory Medicine, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.
74. Massimo Pallotta, First Technologist, National Institute for Nuclear Physics.
75. Enzo Pennetta, Professor of Natural Sciences and scientific divulger.
76. Nunzia Radatti, Chemist, Sogin.
77. Vincenzo Romanello, Nuclear Engineer, Research Center, Rez, Czech Republic.
78. Alberto Rota, Engineer, Researcher at Cise and Enel.
79. Massimo Sepielli, Director of Research, Enea, Rome.
80. Ugo Spezia, Engineer, Industrial Safety Manager, Sogin; Galileo Movement 2001.
81. Emilio Stefani, Professor of Plant Pathology, University of Modena.
82. Umberto Tirelli, Visiting Senior Scientist, Istituto Tumori d’Aviano; Galileo Movement 2001.
83. Roberto Vacca, Engineer and scientific writer.