Despite rising CO2, the global mean surface temperature has remained rather steady and has even decreased
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2018/02/despite-ongoing-increase-in-atmospheric.html
Although it is obvious from data that there has been a 20 year plateau in global warming even as atmospheric CO2 keeps rising; the denying alarmists keep trying to hide the hiatus.
Here are a few denying reports:
From Scientific American (Jan 17): No Pause in Ocean Warming
Various studies have debunked the idea of a pause, or hiatus, in global warming—the contention that global surface temperatures stopped rising during the first decade of this century.
From Inside Climate News (May 17):
Global Warming ‘Hiatus’ Is Debunked Again by Researchers
For years, the idea of a hiatus, or a “pause” in global warming between 1998 and 2012, was used by climate change skeptics as evidence that the earth wasn’t actually getting that much hotter. This was despite a significant body of science showing that the data underpinning the doubters’ argument was flawed and that it was unlikely that any meaningful hiatus had occurred.
Inside Climate News cited a paper in Nature.com:
Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’
‘global warming hiatus’
Iselin Medhaug
1
‘global warming hiatus’
Iselin Medhaug
1
1
, Erich M. Fischer
1
&
Martin B. Stolpe
1
, Erich M. Fischer
1
& Reto Knutti
Iselin Medhaug
1
, Martin B. Stolpe
1
, Erich M. Fischer
1
& Reto Knutt
1
, Erich M. Fischer
1
& Reto Knutt
1
, Erich M. Fischer
1
& Reto Knutt
Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warmingMeehl et al: Nature Climate Change volume4, pages898–902 (2014) :10.1038/nclimate2357AbstractThe slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.
And the second:
Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction, pages898–902 (2014) :10.1038/nclimate2357AbstractThe slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.
And the second:
Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction, pages898–902 (2014) :10.1038/nclimate2357AbstractThe slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction
Meehl et al: Nature Climate Change volume4, pages898–902 (2014) :10.1038/nclimate2357AbstractThe slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.
And the second:
Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction, pages898–902 (2014) :10.1038/nclimate2357AbstractThe slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.
And the second:
Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction, pages898–902 (2014) :10.1038/nclimate2357AbstractThe slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction
Meehl et al: Nature Climate Change volume4, pages898–902 (2014) :10.1038/nclimate2357AbstractThe slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.
And the second:
Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction, pages898–902 (2014) :10.1038/nclimate2357AbstractThe slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.
And the second:
Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction
- pages898–902 (2014) :10.1038/nclimate2357AbstractThe slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.
And the second:Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction
AbstractThe slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.
And the second:
Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature
Zhou & Wang: Scientific Reports 6, Article #31789 (2016) :10.1038/srep31789|Introduction