Claim: ‘Global warming may have been part of cause that Harvey rapidly intensified’
Meteorologist Paul Gross: Did global warming cause Harvey? No. Harvey could have developed regardless of the warming climate.
Could global warming have affected Harvey's strength at landfall? Since global warming is warming our oceans, it is possible that the warmer Gulf temperatures have been impacted by the warming climate. So global warming may have been part of the cause that Harvey rapidly intensified Friday.
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The bottom line is that, while global warming may have provided Harvey with extra water vapor to generate increased rainfall, the bigger reason for the catastrophic rain amounts is the storm's unusually slow movement.
By the way, there is no way to know, based upon our current knowledge, whether or not global warming has had any impact on Harvey's slow movement. Hopefully, future research will answer that question.
Scientists are uncertain about whether or not global warming will cause more hurricanes. In fact, some scientists say that a warmer planet will actually result in fewer hurricanes. However, that is not the entire story. A warming world means that ocean temperatures increase too, and we all know that warm ocean water is the fuel that powers hurricanes.
So even if the coming decades show a decrease in overall hurricanes, those hurricanes that do develop in otherwise favorable conditions will likely be stronger.
The bottom line is that our future may be one of fewer but stronger hurricanes. Is that good or bad news? Fewer hurricanes mean a lower chance that one hits the U.S. coastline. But a hurricane that does form and heads toward the U.S. will likely be stronger, with a more severe storm surge and higher winds.
Something else to consider is that, as the world warms, more ocean water evaporates into the atmosphere (which has been documented — it’s happening).This water vapor is what hurricanes turn into rainfall.
