The Thousand Year Rainfall Fallacy: ‘Conflating odds of one individual station getting a 20 inch rain, with odds of any station getting a 20 inch rain.’
'Your odds of winning the lottery are very small, but the odds of someone winning the lottery are quite high. What these geniuses are doing is conflating the odds of one individual station getting a 20 inch rain, with the odds of any station getting a 20 inch rain.'