Ocean data shows IPCC exaggerates anthropogenic global warming by factor of ~4.6 times – Published in Nature Geoscience


By: - Climate DepotOctober 25, 2014 10:57 AM

Ocean data shows IPCC exaggerates anthropogenic global warming by factor of ~4.6 times

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/10/ocean-data-shows-ipcc-exaggerates.html

A paper published in Nature Geoscience attempts to explain away Trenberth’s “missing heat” as being “within uncertainty” of the dicey ocean heat content data. According to the authors, “We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50 ± 0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.” However, the small “steadily accumulating energy” of only 0.50 W/m2 is far less than even the most conservative estimates from the IPCC AR5 of total anthropogenic radiative forcing. According to the IPCC’s “high confidence” estimates, total anthropogenic radiative forcing in 2011 relative to 1750 was 2.29 W/m2 [range 1.13-3.33]. Thus, Earth is accumulating heat at 4.6 times [2.29/.5] less than the IPCC central estimate, and 2.3 times less than the IPCC lower bound estimate. Thus, the alleged energy accumulation of “0.50 ± 0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level)” is not even within the IPCC bounded estimates for energy accumulation, therefore, most of the “missing heat” remains AWOL, or most likely, never existed. Further, the fact that Earth has accumulated energy does not imply it has to be from anthropogenic sources. Solar amplification mechanisms, including driving of ocean oscillations, cannot be conveniently ruled out as the source or a contributing source. In addition, the figures below from the paper show the warming rates of the oceans have generally declined since 1993 and since 2001, opposite of the warmist’s claims that more of the “missing heat” has recently decided to hide in the oceans. From IPCC latest AR5 report, chart of radiative forcings relative to 1750. Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty Norman G. Loeb, John M. Lyman, Gregory C. Johnson, Richard P. Allan, David R. Doelling, Takmeng Wong, Brian J. Soden & Graeme L. Stephens Affiliations Contributions Corresponding author Nature Geoscience 5, 110–113 (2012) doi:10.1038/ngeo1375 Received  11 August 2011 Accepted  16 December 2011 Published online  22 January 2012 Article tools Full text PDF Citation Reprints Rights & permissions Article metrics Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space1. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system2. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements3, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

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