New paper finds climate sensitivity to CO2 is only 0.43C, about 7 times less than the IPCC claims


By: - Climate DepotOctober 12, 2014 8:14 AM

New paper finds climate sensitivity to CO2 is only 0.43C, about 7 times less than the IPCC claims

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/10/new-paper-finds-climate-sensitivity-to.html

A new paper published in the Open Journal of Atmospheric and Climate Change by renowned professor of physics and expert on spectroscopy Dr. Hermann Harde finds that climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 levels is only about 0.43C, about 7 times less than the IPCC claims, but in line with many other published low estimates of climate sensitivity. The paper further establishes that climate sensitivity to tiny changes in solar activity is comparable to that of CO2 and by no means insignificant as the IPCC prefers to claim. The following is a Google translation from the German EIKE site with an overview of the main findings of the paper, followed by a link to the full paper [in English]. Assessment of global warming due to CO2 and solar influence Currently climate sensitivity (eg (is again called times much about the value of. Discussed. example here )) Your size was determined by the IPCC on the Middle 3.0 K (AR4) as most probable value, determine other values ​​of 1.73 or 1 or even 0.43 K. In is arguing violently. Our author Prof. Hermann Harde, renowned physicist and Spektral analytiker has its results written this. Its value is 0.43 C Only a few spectral lines from CO2 absorbed Image Editor’s note: The “climate sensitivity” said quantity was invented to carry the presumption in meaningful ways into account that the global mean temperature of the atmosphere could possibly be driven in a certain way by increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the air. To this end, forces defined (postulated) called. “Forcings”, whose influence, by means of certain physically based and mostly plausible assumptions, to accomplish this increase as migration out of balance. One of the factors is required for the climate sensitivity. It indicates how much K (° C) doubling the heating of the CO2 concentration rises. Assessment of global warming by CO2 and Solar influence Hermann Harde Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg, Holstenhofweg 85, 22043 Hamburg Our understanding of past and current changes in our climate is based partly on observations, but also on studies of feedback processes and modeling for climate. In this work, an advanced two-layer climate model is presented, which is specifically geared to the influence of rising CO2 to calculate concentration in the atmosphere on global warming and the effects of a changing solar activity on our climate. The model describes the atmosphere and the earth surface than two layers, which act simultaneously as absorber and Planck radiator. In equilibrium, thereby giving the earth as the atmosphere about the radiation and the heat exchange between the layers as much power again, as they absorb from the sun and the neighboring location. An external fault, which may have their origin in a change in solar activity or the concentration of greenhouse gases, changes the balance and thus leads to altered average temperatures of the earth and the atmosphere. The model takes into account the short-wave and long-wave scattering of radiation in the atmosphere and clouds, in particular multiple-scattering and reflections between the surface and the clouds is included. It also takes into account the usual feedback processes such as changes in water vapor concentration, the temperature gradient with height (lapse rate), or albedo. In addition, but also the temperature-dependent heat fluxes by convection and evapotranspiration as well as induced by temperature and solar influence changes in cloud cover degree and whose repercussions are included on the balance with. While climate models radiation losses and their impact on the energy balance usually describe for the radiative forcing, in this work, changes in greenhouse gas concentrations are directly attributed to the short-term and long-wavelength absorption of these gases so that the key parameters in the representative model shown here. The absorptions by the major greenhouse gases water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane and ozone are determined from single-line calculations that rely on the HITRAN08 database and for the solar radiation the spectral range from 0.1 to 8 microns , for the infrared range the spectrum of 3-100 microns cover. Due to the changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and atmospheric pressure with the ambient temperature and the height above the ground, the calculations for up to 228 sub-layers of the earth’s surface into 86 km altitude, and additionally for three climate zones, the tropics, middle latitudes and the polar regions is performed. Then the absorbance change with increasing CO2 concentration to detect these bills for 14 different concentrations are 0 – 770 ppm repeated under otherwise identical conditions. The changing propagation length of sunlight in a lower layer, which depends on the angle of incidence of the radiation to the atmosphere and thus on the latitude and longitude is taken into account by representing the earth as a truncated icosahedron (bucky ball) that the 32 surface elements with well-defined angles incident radiation is and then each of these areas is assigned to a climate zone. The propagation of long-wave radiation, especially the radiation emitted by the atmosphere itself radiation in downward and upward direction which is substantially dependent on the temperature distribution in the vertical direction is calculated separately with an extended model for radiative transfer for each climate zone. The short and long wavelength spectra show a pronounced saturation behavior with increasing water vapor and CO2concentration and a strong mutual overlap. Both effects lead to a significant weakening of the greenhouse effect with increasing concentration. The method presented here relies on the climate model calculated in this work short-term and long-wavelength absorptions to Decrease the surface temperature and lower troposphere temperature as a function of CO2 to determine concentration. The temperature rise in a doubled CO2 concentration then provides directly the CO2equilibrium climate sensitivity. Different scenarios for cloud-free and cloudy sky regularly be examined in detail, this. Taking into account all significant feedback effects and solar influences Corresponding simulations show the dominant influence of cloud cover change on global warming, this is triggered by a thermal and / or solar-induced cloud feedback. In particular, is clearly due to this strong influence of clouds that the measured warming in the last century can only be explained satisfactorily if a significant fraction is associated with an increased solar activity. The simulations yield a CO2 -initiated warming of 0.2 ° C ( 100 ppm CO2 -Anstieg) and a solar fraction of 0.54 ° C over this period. This corresponds to a CO2 climate sensitivity of 00:56 ° C (doubling of CO2 ) and a solar sensitivity of12:54 ° C ( 0.1% increase in the solar constant). These results are in clear contradiction to the representations of the IPCC , the temperature rise over the last century exclusively anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases ( 95%assigns probability) and a climate sensitivity between 1.5 ° C and 4.4 ° C starts, during any influence is denied by the sun. Peculiarities and differences with other studies Spectral calculations The spectral absorption of greenhouse gases as well as to the floor and looking to the all emitted long-wave radiation are the key parameters are for a climate model to hereby the CO2 to calculate climate sensitivity. Therefore, the essential foundations and results of these calculations are summarized in this paper first. These include in particular: – New lines-lines-Spectra the absorption (not forcing): short-wave absorption of 0.1 – 8 microns for water vapor, CO2, CH4 , long-wavelength absorption of 3-100 microns for water vapor, CO2, CH4 and O3 , all essential calculations with high spectral resolution (better than 1 GHz), with high local resolution for 228 atmospheric layers above 86 km altitude and for three climate zones. – Detailed radiative transfer calculations for the downward and upward infrared radiation, based on a novel and generalized radiative transfer model. Climate model The model calculates the impact of a growing CO2 concentration as well as increased solar activity on global warming: – It determines the energy balance and heat transfer by radiation between Earth’s surface and atmosphere under equilibrium conditions. – It uses the calculated short-term and long-wavelength absorption and the upward and downward radiative fluxes in the atmosphere as a key parameter for the climate model. – It takes into account clouds influences and multiple scattering of short and long wave radiation by clouds and the atmosphere. – The radiation and heat fluxes are calibrated to the corresponding satellite data. – The model reacts to changes Bewölkungs with a bottom temperature change applied to the ISCCP -Observations over the period 1983 – 2010 are adjusted. – It takes into account the well-known feedback processes by water vapor, changes in the vertical temperature distribution of the atmosphere as well as by changes in reflectance at the surface. – In addition, a temperature-dependent heat transfer by convection and evapotranspiration is incorporated, processes, which are not considered in other climate models. – The model also takes into account a thermally induced cloudiness change as a feedback process that is driven determined by both the greenhouse gases such as by a change in radiation intensity of the sun and the instrumental climate as well as the solar sensitivity. – Alternatively, a non-thermally induced, purely solar stimulated cloudiness change is considered, which acts exclusively on the solar sensitivity and the climate sensitivity unchanged. Results The essential results of this work are to perform: – The spectra show very strong saturated absorption for water vapor and CO2 and a significant overlap and mutual influence of these gases the amount of CO2 significantly limit the greenhouse effect. – For the radiative transfer calculations for the three climate zones, the ratio of the votes of the atmosphere heat radiation to the ground and all can be determined. – There are first presented calculations on the influence of clouds on the global temperature at the ISCCP based -Observations. – The presented simulations allow a clear distinction between results that are valid for cloud-free and cloudy sky and the dominant influence of cloudiness on global temperature as reflect on the climate sensitivity. – Climate sensitivity over medium cloud cover ( 66% ) is only half as large as under cloud-free conditions. – feedback : o water vapor feedback: It is determined from the Spektralberechnungen for the three climate zones and provides a significantly lower contribution than in the IPCC Reports with listed. It consists of a stronger positive part, caused by the long-wave absorption increases with the temperature, and a smaller damping share by short-wave radiation. The linear increase in absorbance with temperature arises from the exponential increase in water vapor concentration according to the Clausius-Clapeyron -law other hand, a logarithmic increase in the absorption of the vapor concentration due to the spectral saturation effects. o Vertical temperature change : Due to the changing radiation fluxes in upward or downward direction in modified vertical temperature distribution in the atmosphere (lapse rate) results in a resultant positive feedback contribution in contrast to those in the literature, where ia is assumed to be slightly negative feedback. o surface albedo : From the IPCC accepted. o Convection: With increasing CO2 concentration, the temperature of the lower troposphere increases less rapidly than the ground temperature. As a result of heat flow increases due to convection and conduction of heat from soil to the atmosphere, and further contributes to a negative feedback on. o Evapotranspiration : Also increases with increasing soil temperature of the latent heat flux and thus contributes to a significant negative feedback contribution. o Thermally induced cloudiness change : A thermally driven change of cloudiness can be caused by greenhouse gases, in this case CO2 , and also by variations in the solar radiation power. Changes in cloudiness cause a strong positive feedback, which in this case affects both the climate like in the solar sensitivity. o Non-thermal solar induced cloudiness change : The cloud cover can also be affected by cosmic radiation and / or increased UV radiation, both of which are caused by changes in solar activity. This feedback acts only on the solar sensitivity and lets the climate sensitivity unaffected. – Due to the different effects of the two cloud effects on global warming, the simulations allow a distinction between thermal and solar-induced cloud changes as well as an indication of the weighting of these contributions. – Calculated climate and solar sensitivities: o Without any thermal or solar-induced cloudiness change, but taking into account all other relevant feedback processes (water vapor, vertical distribution of temperature, albedo, convection and evapotranspiration), the climate sensitivity to calculate CS = 00:43 ° C . This very low value is due to the highly saturated steam – and CO2 absorption, low water vapor feedback and the negative feedback by convection and evapotranspiration. o CO2 induced thermal Bewölkungs feedback (in accordance with the ISCCP -Observations for cloudiness change), but not including the solar thermal component results in a maximum climate sensitivity of CS = 1.73 ° C . A rise to 100 ppm CO2 over the last century would under these assumptions, then to a global warming of 0.6 ° Ccontribute. o With thermally induced Bewölkungs feedback, caused by CO2 and increased solar activity of 0.2% over the last century, an unrealistically high global warming would 1:32 ° C ( 0.6 + 0.72 ° C ) result. o Without thermal but solar induced Bewölkungs feedback (in accordance with the ISCCP -Observations for cloud modification) a climate sensitivity of is CS = 12:43 ° C and a solar sensitivity of SS = 12:32 ° C calculated. With an increased solar activity of 0.2% over the last century then controls the solar heating of 0.64 ° C and CO2only 0.1 ° C when measured in accordance with the global warming of 0.74 ° C . o For a lower solar activity of only 0.1% and also a smaller underlying negative convection and Evapotransipirations feedback results in a climate sensitivity of CS = 0.56 ° C, the solar sensitivity to SS = 0.54 ° C . then controls CO2 0.2 ° C and the Sun 0.54 ° C warming effect. To all boundary conditions of increased solar activity and CO2 concentration over the last century to meet, and this is in agreement with the observed warming and the change of cloud cover during the period 1983-2010 , is a combination of both cloudiness influencing mechanisms used with a thermal share of 9% and a dominant solar contribution of 91%. o A value for the equilibrium climate sensitivity of ~ 0.6 ° C makes it more likely represents an upper limit for this. If a solar anomaly of 0.2% based on, this value is reduced to only ~ 0.4 ° ​​C. Full paper available here: http: //www.scipublish .com / journals / ACC / recent Abstract: We present an advanced two-layer climate model, especially appropriate to calculate the influence of an increasing CO2-concentration and a varying solar activity on global warming. The model describes the atmosphere and the ground as two layers acting simultaneously as absorbers and Planck radiators, and it includes additional heat transfer between these layers due to convection and evaporation. The model considers all relevant feedback processes caused by changes of water vapour, lapse-rate, surface albedo or convection and evaporation. In particular, the influence of clouds with a thermally or solar induced feedback is investigated in some detail. The short- and long-wave absorptivities of the most important greenhouse gases water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and ozone are derived from line-by-line calculations based on the HITRAN08-databasis and are integrated in the model. Simulations including an increased solar activity over the last century give a CO2 initiated warming of 0.2 ˚ C and a solar influence of 0.54 ˚ C over this period, corresponding to a CO2 climate sensitivity of 0.6 ˚ C (doubling of CO2) and a solar sensitivity of 0.5 ˚ C (0.1 % increase of the solar constant). Other related articles & comments: article answer this this 

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