Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: ‘Record 3,151 days and counting with no Florida hurricane and no major U.S. hurricane’ – Longest stretch in over 100 years
'In fact, from 1900 through 2013, the United States experienced a decrease in hurricane landfalls of more than 20%, and the strength of each year's landfalling storms has also decreased by more than 20%...the choice of time period makes a difference. For instance, starting the analysis in 1970, at the lowest point of 20th century hurricane activity, leads to an increasing trend.
But make no mistake: We can say with some certainty that there is little evidence to suggest that U.S. hurricanes have become more common or stronger. The recent report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change agrees: "No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin."
Arguably, we are living in a lull of hurricanes, at least in the context of the past 100 years or so.'
It would be a big mistake to conflate hurricane damage with storm frequency or intensity. Consider that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 resulted in $76 million in damage when it devastated what is today downtown Miami. Without a doubt, a repeat of that storm would result in much more damage, but how much?
