Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: ‘Against the 100-Year Flood’ —
Pielke Jr. : 'As might be expected the biggest claims (a 1,000-year event has the record so far!) are made by those who seek to link causality of Colorado disaster to human-caused climate change in a simplistic way'
Live Science: 'The Rocky Mountains have long been prone to flash floods. Native Americans warned Boulder's founders of flooding, according to historical accounts. The U.S. Geological Survey has mapped the remnants of ancient flash floods all along the Colorado Front Range, where steep mountain canyons send debris pouring into town, along with the rocks that give Boulder its name. The last 100-year flood in Boulder was in 1894, so the city was statistically overdue for another disaster. (Note that even though a100-year flood appears on average once a century, it's possible for two 100-year events to hit in back-to-back years; the term actually refers to the 1 percent chance of the event happening in any given year.)'
‘The 100-year standard refers to a flood that has a one percent chance of being exceeded in any given year. It does not refer to a flood that occurs ‘once every 100 years’. In fact, for a home in a 100-year flood zone there is a greater than 26% chance that it will see at least one 100-year flood over a period of 30 years (and, similarly, more than a 74% chance over 100 years).’
