Analysis of new ‘Hockey Stick’ paper: ‘The MWP did not completely disappear in this new paper, it turned into a <0.1°C blip colder than 1961- 1990. This is quite curious’
'There are at least 96 proxy studies of Europe, N. America, S. America, Asia, & Aus/NZ with quantitative estimates of MWP temps, plus 109 more with qualitative estimates, & an additional 116 providing evidence that it was a significant, centuries long event that came & went fairly suddenly. How has MWP almost disappeared again, just in time to perhaps go missing in UN IPCC AR5?'
The paper itself said, “…our temperature stack does not fully resolve variability at periods shorter than 2000 years…”
Evaluate a 300-year MWP using methods lacking 300 year resolution and voila! The MWP turns into a blip diminished by the colder periods on each side.
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The misinformation highway took the paper’s figure S3 (below) as a spaghetti chart hockey stick of the proxy temperatures. It is not. It shows 1000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 73 data sets, perturbed by inserting random temperature and age calibration errors to establish the blue statistical band in Figure 1B. S3 doesn’t say the last century’s temperature has risen above the Holocene peak. It only says uncertainty about the combined recent paleotemperature has risen.
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Marcott neglected to tell NPR his methodology did not recognize ‘fast’ century changes at all–until recent thermometer records were spliced onto the 73 paleosites
