New paper finds climate models offer little beyond simulating a random walk — Paper published in the Journal of Climate
Study 'finds that climate models have little to no ability to provide skillful forecasts of global surface temperatures on timescales of a decade or more. According to the author, 'These results suggest that current coupled model decadal forecasts may not yet have much skill beyond that captured by multivariate red noise.'
Translation: state-of-the-art climate models that simulate the ocean and atmosphere together [called ‘coupled models’] offer little predictive ability beyond simulating a random walk [also called ‘red noise’] over periods of 10 or more years’
