BBC put up a deliberately apocalyptic picture while telling us the world is on course for the warmest year on record. What they failed to tell us was that the more accurate satellites, which monitor atmospheric temperatures over nearly all of the globe, say no such thing. Figures from UAH are out for November, and these show a drop from the October anomaly of 0.27C to 0.33C. This means that at the end of November, this year is only in a tie for 3rd with 2005, and well below the record year of 1998, and 2010.
Spencer: 'I claim 2014 won’t be the warmest global-average year on record...if for no other reason than this: thermometers cannot measure global averages — only satellites can. The satellite instruments measure nearly every cubic kilometer – hell, every cubic inch — of the lower atmosphere on a daily basis. You can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometers without finding a thermometer nearby.'
'The thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research quality instruments that were never made to monitor long-term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree, and the huge data voids around the world are either ignored or in-filled with fictitious data.'
RSS was originally supposed to provide a quality check on our product (a worthy and necessary goal) and was heralded by the global warming alarmist community. But since RSS shows a slight cooling trend since the 1998 super El Nino, and the UAH dataset doesn’t, it is more referenced by the skeptic community now. Too funny.
We are arguing over the significance of hundredths of a degree, which no one can actually feel. Not surprisingly, the effects on severe weather are also unmeasurable …despite what some creative-writing “journalists” are trying to get you to believe.
As at the end of September, RSS is only ranking 7th hottest since 1998, and UAH tie 3rd. On both datasets, 1998 and 2010 were much, much warmer, and in both cases this year’s temperature is barely above last year’s (0.01C and 0.02C for RSS and UAH respectively).
The whole idea that we can measure global temperatures by any method to such small margins is, of course, a nonsense. Nevertheless, satellite monitoring does not have the substantial issues of UHI and minimal coverage which surface datasets have.
'In order to reach the desired”hottest August ever” – start at 0.66, extrapolate that out 1200 km to 0.68, and then extrapolate that out across multiple regions of the planet to get to 0.70. As a final step, you then ignore the huge discrepancy vs multiple sources of much more accurate satellite data'