NOAA bastardizes science in Louisiana rain modeling study – Climatologists, data, & history refute NOAA’s claims
Climate skeptics scoff as NOAA quickly links global warming, La. floods – Wash Times features Climate Depot – Heidi Cullen’s involvement came as a red flag for Georgia Tech climate scientist Judith A. Curry, who also raised questions about releasing the study before a peer review. “This study involves several scientists from NOAA, along with a scientist that works for an advocacy group,” said Ms. Curry in an email. “NOAAhas a team in Boulder, Colorado (led by Marty Hoerling) that typically conducts quite sensible analyses of such extreme events. So I don’t know why NOAA issued such a press release about a new publication without checking with this other team at NOAA.”
Flashback NOAA 1974: ‘Extreme weather events blamed on global cooling’ – NOAA October 1974: ‘Many climatologists have associated this drought and other recent weather anomalies with a global cooling trend and changes in atmospheric circulation which, if prolonged, pose serious threats to major food-producing regions of the world’
Chicago Tribune – Nov. 25, 1981 http://archives.chicagotribune.com/1981/11/25/page/27/article/perspective …
Analysis: NOAA rain modeling study ‘has no scientific basis, and ignores all available actual data’ – ‘Man-Made Modeling Abuse Increases The Odds Of NOAA Fraud’ – Real Climate Science website: ‘The NOAA study has no scientific basis, and ignores all available actual data. Software models can be written to produce any result the author wants to produce. They are not evidence of anything other than deep corruption at NOAA.’ –
‘There has been no increase in heavy rains in Louisiana.’
On April 15, 1927 New Orleans got 15 inches of rain in 18 hours during the largest flood in US history.
‘New Orleans was founded in 1717, against the objections of the chief engineer who said it flooded all the time.’
‘Floods are not increasing’: Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. slams ‘global warming’ link to floods & extreme weather – How does media ‘get away with this?’ – Pielke Jr. on how extreme weather is NOT getting worse: ‘Flood disasters are sharply down. U.S. floods not increasing either.’
25 New Papers Confirm A Remarkably Stable Modern Climate: Fewer Intense Storms, Hurricanes, Droughts, Floods, Fires… – Unreliable climate models do not simulate variability or extremes – warming stabilizes the climate:
Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations
“The framework illustrates that unreliable climate simulations are prone to overestimate the attributable risk to climate change. Climate model ensembles tend to be overconfident in their representation of the climate variability which leads to systematic increase in the attributable risk to an extreme event. Our results suggest that event attribution approaches comprising of a single climate model would benefit from ensemble calibration in order to account for model inadequacies similarly as operational forecasting systems.”
“[T]he intensification of the twentieth-century-mean hydroclimate anomalies in the simulations, as compared to previous centuries, is not supported by our new multi-proxy reconstruction. This finding suggests that much work remains before we can model hydroclimate variability accurately, and highlights the importance of using palaeoclimate data to place recent and predicted hydroclimate changes in a millennium-long context.”
According to a new study, the Northern Hemisphere has experienced considerably larger variations in precipitation during the past twelve centuries than in the twentieth century. Researchers from Sweden, Germany, and Switzerland have found that climate models overestimated the increase in wet and dry extremes as temperatures increased during the twentieth century.
“‘Tipping points’ (TPs) are thresholds of potentially disproportionate changes in the Earth’s climate system associated with future global warming and are considered today as a ‘hot’ topic in environmental sciences. In this study, TP interactions are analysed from an integrated and conceptual point of view using two qualitative Boolean models built on graph grammars. They allow an accurate study of the node TP interactions previously identified by expert elicitation and take into account a range of various large-scale climate processes potentially able to trigger, alone or jointly, instability in the global climate. Our findings show that, contrary to commonly held beliefs, far from causing runaway changes in the Earth’s climate, such as self-acceleration due to additive positive feedbacks, successive perturbations might actually lead to its stabilization.”
“Substantial changes in the hydrological cycle are projected for the 21st century, but these projections are subject to major uncertainties. In this context, the ‘dry gets drier, wet gets wetter’ (DDWW) paradigm is often used as a simplifying summary. However, recent studies cast doubt on the validity of the paradigm and also on applying the widely used P-E (precipitation-evapotranspiration) metric over global land surfaces. Here we show in a comprehensive CMIP5-based assessment that projected changes in mean annual P-E are generally not significant, except for high-latitude regions showing wetting conditions until the end of the 21st century. Significant increases in aridity do occur in many subtropical, but also adjacent humid regions. However, combining both metrics still shows that ca. 70% of all land area will not experience significant changes. Based on these findings we conclude that the DDWW paradigm is generally not confirmed for projected changes in most land areas.”
Reality Check on Salon Mag.: “Extreme Rainfall Records In The States” Most are pre-1950, none since 1996:
No new records have been set since 1996 and most are pre-1950. Not much sign of global warming having any effect there.
Dr. Robert Holmes, USGS National Flood Hazard Coordinator: ‘The data shows no systematic increases in flooding through time’ – ‘USGS research has shown no linkage between flooding (either increases or decreases) and the increase in greenhouse gases. Essentially, from USGS long-term streamgage data for sites across the country with no regulation or other changes to the watershed that could influence the streamflow, the data shows no systematic increases in flooding through time.’
1000 year flood? ‘The majority of USGS streamgages had flood peaks that were less than 10-year floods.’ – ‘Analysis show NO indication that a 1000-year flood discharge occurred at any USGSstreamgages’