Climate Skeptics turn tables on ‘attribution’ studies – Ask: Is ‘global warming’ causing a decrease in ‘extreme weather’ events?


By: - Climate DepotMarch 17, 2016 4:35 PM with 13 comments

Washington DC — Despite the fact that the climate data clearly shows declining or no trends in many major indicators of “extreme weather” like tornadoes, hurricanes, rainfall, droughts and heatwaves, climate activists are once again seemingly trying to link every storm to “global warming.”

Man-made global warming proponents are touting yet another study claiming to attribute “extreme weather” to man-made global warming. See: Scientists: ‘Links Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather Are Clear

While such studies rely on modeling claims and other assorted statistical methods to “attribute” “global warming” to specific storms, these studies never examine why “extreme weather” is not increasing. The Associated Press is claiming that “Starting in 2004, dozens of complex peer-reviewed studies found the odds of some extreme events — but by no means all — were goosed by man-made climate change.”

Yes, the AP is claiming that “complex” studies found “the odds of some extreme events” are being “goosed by man-made climate change.” Complex? Odds? Goosed? Really?

The AP’s resident climate activist writer Seth Borenstein continued: “When it comes to heat waves, droughts, heavy rain and some other events, scientists who do rigorous research can say whether they was more likely or more severe because of man-made global warming.” Rigorous? (Note: AP’s Borenstein relies on a small cadre of activist scientists to support the “rigorous” claims. Activists like UN IPCC’s Michael Oppenheimer, David Titley and Katharine Hayhoe)

Climate Depot’s Rebuttal:

If “global warming” can cause specific storms or extreme weather events to occur, how come “global warming” can’t cause the significant lack of “extreme weather?” NOAA: Number of major tornadoes in 2015 was ‘one of the lowest on record’ – Tornadoes below average for 4th year in a row –

Is “global warming” causing a decrease in “extreme weather” events? A 2015 study found just that. See: New paper finds global warming reduces intense storms & extreme weather – A paper published in Science contradicts the prior belief that global warming, if it resumes, will fuel more intense storms, finding instead that an increase in water vapor and strengthened hydrological cycle will reduce the atmosphere’s ability to perform thermodynamic Work, thus decreasing the formation of intense winds, storms, and hurricanes.

The media is indulging in what extreme weather expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has called “climate porn.” See: Flashback: Apocalyptic ‘climate porn’ is wrong – Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: Disasters Cost More Than Ever — But Not Because of Climate Change – Pielke Jr.

Paul Homewood has an excellent analysis of the recent declining trends in “extreme weather.”  

Viahttps://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/03/17/explaining-the-extreme-weather-events-that-did-not-happen/

Explaining The Extreme Weather Events That Did Not Happen

MARCH 17, 2016 

By Paul Homewood

image_thumb67

https://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/

Unable to persuade the public that a slightly warmer world is a bad thing, the climate establishment has turned to peddling the myth that global warming is leading to more extreme weather.

There have been a number of studies which have attempted to connect the two. Even then, as I showed with the above AMS attempt a few months ago, most extreme events cannot be linked, and those that are claimed to be are extremely tenuous.

Of course, weather is an impossibly complex affair, and it is inevitable that some weather events may be made more likely or more intense in a warmer world. But, equally, the opposite is also true – that some events are less likely. Naturally, we never hear the absence of extreme weather analysed in this way by the likes of the AMS or Met Office.

So, I invite them to have a go at these examples:

Hurricanes

US land falling hurricanes have been at record low levels in recent years, and it is now more than ten years since a major hurricane hit.

image

image

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

Tornadoes

There has been a long term decline in both the number of tornadoes, and particularly, the frequency of stronger ones.

image_thumb54

image_thumb55

Droughts

Droughts were much more commonplace, prolonged and severe prior to the 1970s.

mudltigraph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/0/pdsi/ytd/12/1895-2016?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

Summer Heatwaves

There has been a marked absence of extreme heatwaves in recent years, and nothing approaches the run of intensely hot summers in the 1930s.

mulstigraph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/0/tmax/3/8/1895-2016?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

Bitter Winters

According to NOAA’s albeit highly adjusted data, extremely cold winters are a thing of the past in the US.

multigramph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/0/tmin/3/2/1895-2016?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

Precipitation

As with drought indicators, US rainfall has tended to be greater since the pre 1970 period.

There is no indication, however, of precipitation becoming more extreme since then. The wettest year was 1973.

multigrapph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/0/pcp/ytd/12/1895-2016?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

Regional Precipitation Extremes

National totals can, of course, cover up regional imbalances.The NOAA chart below shows the balance of extremely wet and dry areas. As with PDSI, very dry areas are much less common, while the area of very wet weather is stable.

(NOAA’s graph is not well presented; although it says “December”, it is in fact for all months since 1895. Each bar represents a single month)

multigraph

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/uspa/?area=wet-dry&month=0&submitted=View

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  • Dorian

    If you think all this is crazy, just wait, soon the morons will be making the oxymoron(ic) claim that global warming is the cause of global cooling.
    I can see the headlines now, Global Warming Kills Hurricanes, Global Warming Stops Rain, Global Warming Lowers Temperatures, Global Warming Increases Snow! And of course, they will have their rigged models all showing how this works. Then there will be a grand mia culpa from the global warming science crowd stating they’ve made major breakthroughs in their models only to expose how wrong they were before, but now, this time they have got it right, all because of the super complicated intricate systemic inter-forces at play that they are trying to model, they now know that global warming actually kills off hurricanes and alike! Then we will see the government coming and praising these genius morons on solving this super difficult problem. Never mind that the last 20 years of billions of dollars were falsely and erroneously spent. Never mind all those laws created to punish those with large carbon foot prints, were made on false pretences. No, these morons in the global warming asylum are all going to be protected, and the rest of us suckers are going to pay even more to keep those morons and fraudsters in their cushy jobs, namely, looking for new and novel ways to tweak their goose like computer programs to keep on laying golden eggs.

    We have definitely have now gone from criminal intent and fraud, to now all out INSANITY. And when I say insanity, I’m talking cracker-jack, padded wall, straight jacket INSANITY!

    When Science is being led by mad-scientists, the government being led by Orwellian megalomaniacs, and the justice system is pandering to these social misfits, we are then living in a dystopia.

    Everybody, watch out for the arrival of the Ministry of Truth! This is one time ladies and gentlemen you don’t need to find a rabbit hole to go down, so to enter a world that has upside-down logic and a smiling Cheshire cat, for we have it here now in Wonderland, yep that’s right, we have been living in Wonderland all along. We have a Red Queen going around with the name Hillary, a Cheshire cat with the name Obama, we have a White Rabbit known as Al, and of course Hatta, the mad-scientist. I’ll let you all figure out the rest.

    My apologises to George Orwell and Lewis Carroll, but truly we are living in very much an Oceania society with Wonderland characters. And things are only going to get worse 🙁

    Oh, I hope I don’t run into Humpty Dumpty, for he makes an awful mess!

  • ScienceABC123

    Ah, more data that needs to be “adjusted” to show that climate change is real.

    • Clara Wehner

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    • Hillarygpadua3

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  • Dec 8, 2015 Climate Change is Unfaslifiable *Woo-Woo Pseudoscience*

    Karl Popper famously said, “A theory that explains everything explains nothing.” So what do you make of the theory that catastrophic manmade CO2-driven “climate change” can account for harsher winters and lighter winters, more snow and less snow, droughts and floods, more hurricanes and less hurricanes, more rain and less rain, more malaria and less malaria, saltier seas and less salty seas, Antarctica ice melting and Antarctic ice gaining and dozens of other contradictions? Popper gave a name to “theories” like this: pseudoscience.

    https://youtu.be/huKY5DzrcLI

    • Dorian

      Pseudo-science, eh! Hmmm, sounds too respectable. I prefer calling it Voodoo Science, or just what it used to be called, Alchemy.

      When there is no accountability in a system, you get exactly what we have now. The criminals, morons and unscrupulous take over.

      We now have these misfits running the economy and government. When you have the crazies running the asylum, those crazies lock up the sane people, and all definitions of sanity are turned on its head. That is what is now starting to occur, where these misfit criminals now what to indict and jail the sane people. This is not pseudo science this is dystopian tyranny.

      And academics study why societies collapse! You don’t have to study the past to answer this question, you look at what is going on now. Eventually all of present society will collapse because those who contribute absolutely nothing to society, like those mad-scientist global warmers, will suck all the wealth out of the system that is being contributed by those who do positive useful work, and when there are many more of the useless than of the useful, society collapses.

      And in 10,000 years in the future, they will be studying our time, for reasons why our society collapsed and fell into a black dark age for a thousand years.

      We humans never learn. We are too corrupt, too selfish, too greedy and just plain too arrogant. Soon the witch trials and inquisitions will start, and the next Dark Age will have begun.

      • You are spot on as this video will show how we get played in these cycles. Enjoy and share if you like!

        Mar 20, 2015 The Cycle of The State

        Daniel Sanchez combines the theories of Robert Higgs and Hans-Hermann Hoppe to form a theory of the cycle of the state.

        https://youtu.be/zqTmZoQn5Y0

        • Dorian

          Just viewed the video, Lincoln. Higgs’ thesis is all very good, but it is just an intellectualization of a problem of States undermining other States. Same argument for Hoppe.

          The last thing we need is more intellectualizing of these problems. And that is also a big problem, intellectuals! Our problem in society is much more simpler, we The People, do not take responsibility for actions, and do not demand accountability for actions from our Leaders. Humanity is not a complicated intellectual problem. Humans are very simple to understand; we betray, we cheat, we lie, we steal, we commit fraud, we falsify.

          Things will never get better until we put greater demands of accountability upon our leaders and ourselves. As a Libertarian, I hate the idea of having bigger government and the idea of a Big Brother government. But people with greater responsibility, and greater powers, should have greater oversight. I don’t believe any government should have a blanket power to rule over its People. Furthermore, as a scientist (physics) myself, I believe we should not put any faith and very little capital into theories that can’t be tested or falsifiable as Karl Popper put it, and that’s the problem! Academics are the last people on Earth that would follow what Popper advocated. Academia is a Church onto itself and has become that pretty much in the last 25 years.

          The issue is this Lincoln. Can Man stop this progression of Social Entropy? Can Man stop our next Collapse? CAN MAN CHANGE? The answer is, NO. Civilizations and societies do not collapse from the outside. Like the Roman Empire, societies collapse from within. All because, those within the society are too arrogant to admit wrong doing, are too devious to admit misadventure, are too greedy to let go.

          Post all the videos you like Lincoln, it means nothing. I do understand you are trying to broaden and enlighten with the message here. But you have to understand, WE ALL KNOW, AND HAVE KNOWN WHY THINGS ARE THE WAY THEY ARE. We don’t need more academics writing books. The answers have been around for 5,000 years! It is just that, MAN will not do what needs to be done!

          Example, 3,000 years ago, usury was illegal. That is lending money out for profit. Why is that? It isn’t a religious observance. It is because, economically, and mathematically, charging interest of lending money only leads to one eventual outcome….the rich get richer. Think about it like this, in an economic universe with a finite amount of money, those with more money than others, will always slowly eat away the money from those with less, why? Because if those with more money get, even if they receive the same interest rate with those with less, MORE absolute money than those will with less fortunes. Thus eventually, those with more will eventually cannibalize the fortunes of the lesser. They understood this 5,000 years ago! And that is why usury was illegal. This is the underlining argument why many people advocate getting rid of the Central Banks.

          Lincoln, it doesn’t matter what field of endeavour you examine. Physics, economics, history, geography, philosophy, constructions and so on, Man has learnt the lessons many, many times. These lessons have been documented all the way back to when they were writing cuneiform tablets. Karl Popper and all the other philosophers and great thinkers of the last 500 years have not said anything that has not been said before! Or even hard core science, we have cuneiform tablets that state the planets going around our Sun, accounting for Uranus, Neptune and Pluto, planets that can only be observed with a telescope, how can that be! You see Lincoln, we have been through many enlightened periods in the past. But do we learn from them? NO!

          MAN, doesn’t learn, all because, MAN is corrupt. And until we don’t accept that we can’t trust ourselves, we will always build a society that has an inbuilt mechanism that will eventually lead to our own collapse. Then repeat the cycle again.

          In short Lincoln, we need less Popper’s, and more Policing. We need people to start accepting responsibility, not learning about how others are irresponsible. We need people to start demanding more from our leaders, not understanding how or why our leaders are behaving badly. We need people to become MORE involved in society and not just learning about their society.

          Our problem Lincoln, is we listen and read too much about what other people say, and don’t do enough ourselves! We all know what is right, we don’t need a Philosophy department to event Ethics to tell us so. What we need is people to start accepting their responsibilities.

          • Without doing some outreach how will those who are clueless get a clue without our dedication and outreach? I know how far at the bottom we are currently in, and I am prepared as I can be for the inevitable. I refuse to make folks freak out by yelling fire in the theater. This is just who I am calm cool and collected, and yelling the sky is falling or fire in the middle of the theater is not my way.

          • Dorian

            Lincoln, you are absolutely correct!!! Bravo. And I say that with absolute respect and sincerity!

            That is the BIG PROBLEM. How do we get people to get more involved and demand more from not just our leaders but ourselves. There always comes a point, once you have grown up and now and adult, you need to apply all that you have learnt. And Man, does that terribly, unless there is a buck to made, and if that buck screws someone else, tough! It is that philosophy that we need to change about ourselves.

            Enough has been written. Enough has been videoed. Enough has been preached. Take a look a physics, as a physicist myself I can’t for the life of myself understand how many times do we (the physics community) have to write about the same physics that has been written about for the last 100 years after already 1,000s of perfectly good books have been written, and usually better than anything written today (perfectly good example is MIR Publishers, their books on physics have been the best ever written). And yet we need to redo everything, over and over and over and over again. To what avail? The same goes with all the other fields of endeavour. Somewhere along the way we need to stop this insanity. Remember what insanity is, repeating the same process over and over again, and expecting a different outcome. How many times have the same introduction to electromagnetism has been written, or how about how many times do we have to write about the Roman Empire! This is Social Insanity!

            We have a sick society. So how do we stop this insanity? Good question!

            I THE HELL DON’T KNOW!

          • Dorian

            I am not denying we don’t have serious problems, for as I have stated many times, we do. But our problems are not epistemological. Our problems is much more ingrained in our psyche. We, that is us Humans, are terrible at managing our own weaknesses, especially our responsibility to expect better leadership from our leaders. We just give our leaders the task to lead and then just whine about them. When in reality we need to understand that it is we ourselves allow our leaders to betray us, all because we, let our leaders to buy our votes so cheaply. People need to be more demanding and need to value their vote more. But don’t.

            So how to change that? I don’t know. People have too cheap a value set, as far as I can say. We value many important things too cheaply until it is too late. This is a big and difficult problem we have among ourselves. One thing is for sure, this is not something that schools or academics try to change. And why not? Because if you made people to smart and too thoughtful then they may just start demanding things that you don’t want them to demand. That is why school curricula are managed by the state, and why so many history books are filled with lies.

            Man is destined to eventually fail, we are programmed to deceive, cheat, steal, lie and kill. Don’t need a philosophy degree to figure that one out, they have been talking about this issue for the last 5,000 years.

          • Go to Town hall meetings, and any gatherings at a church, or social events in any and all cities. There are plenty of outreach opportunities everywhere! I am also a man of faith, and know my final destination already. You should listen to the lady below for a little over the minute and 42 second mark.

            (Phili 1:21) I will forever love christ. For me to live is christ and to die is gain

            (John 14:27) “Peace I leave with you; my peace I give you. I do not give to you as the world gives. Do not let your hearts be troubled and do not be afraid.”

            This lady says more in 1:42 than some preachers say in an hour. I love this!

          • Dorian

            No disrespect intended Lincoln, but there have been people like her for the last 5,000 years too, it hasn’t changed a thing, in fact, most of the time, it made things worse.

            Man’s problem is not about a belief or lack of a belief in God. Some of the greatest people in history did things because they were God fearing, and at the same time, destroyed nations, all in the name of God, what makes their doings and sayings any more or less relevant than that women’s!

            Man has a problem, and God is not the solution. What problems Man creates, Man must also solve. Using God as an answer, is a cop out, and I think God too would see it that way. Why would God want anything to do with Man, if Man kept on running to Him every time he got into trouble. God expects us to solve our problems ourselves, and our reward would then be His grace. Nope Lincoln, if you’re going to use Him as an answer, I think you are doing a very big dis-service to Man and God. This is our greatest test, and we need to over come it, and over come it, ourselves.

            Our problem is not about our relationship with God, it is with us and each other. It is not about also what we should be doing for what God wants us to do. We need to find respect among ourselves not because we all have a belief in God, we need to have a respect among ourselves because have learnt that we need to respect each other for the sake that value we share among ourselves is something that we praise for ourselves and not because of a fear of God’s Will. Our relationship with God is on an individual level. But our relationship with each other, is independent of our relationship with God. That is why, we need to fix our problems for ourselves, not for Him.

            Our problems are Earthly. Worry about your relationship with God on an individual level. The problem we have among ourselves is societal. This is our test, if we can’t solve our problems with each other, why should we even consider thinking we can have a relationship with no one less than God, Himself!

            On that note, i’m going to leave this touchy topic there.