New paper by Russian solar physicist by Habibullo Abdussamatov predicts another Little Ice Age within the next 30 years


By: - Climate DepotDecember 4, 2013 1:54 PM with 9 comments

New paper predicts another Little Ice Age within the next 30 years

A new paper by solar physicist by Habibullo Abdussamatov predicts the current lull in solar activity will continue and lead to a new Little Ice Age within the next 30 years.
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[Illustrations, footnotes and references available in PDF version]
Excerpts:
Significant climate variations during the past 7.5 millennia indicate that bicentennial quasi-periodic TSI variations define a corresponding cyclic mechanism of climatic changes from global warmings to Little Ice Ages and set the timescales of practically all physical processes taking place in the Sun-Earth system. Quasi-bicentennial cyclic variations of the TSI entering the Earth’s upper atmosphere are the main fundamental cause of corresponding alternations of climate variations. At the same time, more long-term variations of the annual average of the TSI due to changes in the shape of the Earth’s orbit, inclination of the Earth’s axis relative to its orbital plane, and precession, known as the astronomical Milankovitch cycles, together with the subsequent feedback effects, lead to the Big Glacial Periods (with the period of about 100,000 years).
The start of Grand Maunder-type Minimum of the TSI of the quasibicentennial cycle is anticipated in solar cycle 27±1 about the year 2043±11 and the beginning of the phase of deep cooling of the 19th Little Ice Age in the past 7,500 years in the year 2060±11 Figure 1, 2). Now we witness the transitional period from warming to deep cooling characterized by unstable climate changes when the global temperature will oscillate (approximately until 2014) around the maximum achieved in 1998-005. these prognoses are confirmed by the Sun itself and the course of global temperature changes and the level of the World ocean for the past 16 years.  In general, by analogy with the seasons on Earth there is also a similar alternation of climatic conditions in the Solar System, dictated by the quasi-bicentennial cycle variation of the TSI.
From this point of view, ow the whole of our Solar System after season of the “solar summer” is moving to the season of the “solar autumn” and then will move to the season of the “solar winter” of the quasibicentennial solar cycle. There is simultaneous warming of the Earth, Mars and the whole Solar System which has a natural solar origin and confirms the action of “solar summer” throughout the Solar system and alternation of climate conditions in it.  
The content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere largely depends on the World Ocean, and the content of dust depends on volcanic activity and on the rise of aerosols rom and. The amounts of natural flows (carbon dioxide, water vapour, and dust) from the Ocean and land to the atmosphere Min) and from the atmosphere (Mout) to the Ocean and land exceed many times the anthropogenic discharges of these substances into the atmosphere (Mant) (Nigmatulin R.I. The Ocean: climate, resources, and natural disasters. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2010; 80(4): 338-349).
The overall content of carbon dioxide in the Ocean is 50 times higher than in the atmosphere, and even a weak “breath” of the Ocean can change dramatically the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere. Natural causes play the most important role in climate variations rather than human activity since natural factors are substantially more powerful. Antarctic ice cores provide clear evidence of a close coupling between variations of temperature and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide during the glacial/interglacial cycles of at least the past 800-thousand years. Analysis of ice cores shows that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere follows the rise temperatures very closely and lagged warmings by 800±400 years. During the glacial/interglacial cycles the peaks of carbon dioxide concentration have never preceded the warmings. Therefore there is no evidence that carbon dioxide is a major factor in the warming of the Earth now. Considerable changes of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide always determined by corresponding temperature fluctuations of the World Ocean.
Thus, the quasi-bicentennial variations of the TSI (allowing for their direct and secondary impacts, with the latter being due to the secondary feedback effects) are the major and essential cause of climate changes.The Sun is the main factor controlling the climatic system and even non-significant long-term TSI variations may have serious consequences for the climate of the Earth and other planets of the Solar system. Quasi-bicentennial solar cycles are the key to understanding cyclic changes in both the nature and the society. The sign and value of the energy imbalance in the Earth-atmosphere system over a long time span (excess of incoming TSI accumulated by the Ocean, or its deficiency) determine a corresponding change of the energy state of the system and, hence, a forthcoming climate variation and its amplitude. That is why the Earth’s climate will change every 200±70 years; and it is the result of bicentennial cyclic TSI variation. The observed long-term decline of TSI and forthcoming deep cooling will, first of all, essentially affect climate-dependent natural resources and, hence, influence, in the first place, economic closely connected with state of the climate. The most reasonable way to fight against the coming Little Ice Age is a complex of special steps aimed at support of economic growth and energy-saving production in order to adapt mankind to forthcoming period of deep cooling which will last approximately until the beginning of the 22nd century. Early understanding of reality of the forthcoming global cooling and physical mechanisms responsible for it directly determines a choice of adequate and reliable measures which will allow the mankind, in particular, population of countries situated far from the equator, to adapt to the future global cooling.

  • Dr Norman Page

    The conclusions of this paper are similar to the cooling forecast in several posts at
    http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
    These forecasst are based on recognizing quasi periodic – quasi repetitive cycles in the temperature data and not on the completely discredited IPCC type model forecasting methods.
    Here is a summary of the conclusions.
    “I have combined the PDO, ,Millennial cycle and neutron trends to estimate the timing and extent of the coming cooling in both the Northern Hemisphere and Globally.
    Here are the conclusions of those posts.
    1/22/13 (NH)
    1) The millennial peak is sharp – perhaps 18 years +/-. We have now had 16 years since 1997 with no net warming – and so might expect a sharp drop in a year or two – 2014/16 -with a net cooling by 2035 of about 0.35.Within that time frame however there could well be some exceptional years with NH temperatures +/- 0.25 degrees colder than that.
    2) The cooling gradient might be fairly steep down to the Oort minimum equivalent which would occur about 2100. (about 1100 on Fig 5) ( Fig 3 here) with a total cooling in 2100 from the present estimated at about 1.2 +/-
    3) From 2100 on through the Wolf and Sporer minima equivalents with intervening highs to the Maunder Minimum equivalent which could occur from about 2600 – 2700 a further net cooling of about 0.7 degrees could occur for a total drop of 1.9 +/- degrees
    4)The time frame for the significant cooling in 2014 – 16 is strengthened by recent developments already seen in solar activity. With a time lag of about 12 years between the solar driver proxy and climate we should see the effects of the sharp drop in the Ap Index which took place in 2004/5 in 2016-17.

    4/02/13 ( Global)

    1 Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17
    2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22
    3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024
    4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 – 0.15
    5 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 – 0.5
    6 General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,
    7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.
    8 The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial – they may slightly ameliorate the forecast cooling and help maintain crop yields .
    9 Warning !! There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent – with a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario.

    How confident should one be in these above predictions? The pattern method doesn’t lend itself easily to statistical measures. However statistical calculations only provide an apparent rigor for the uninitiated and in relation to the IPCC climate models are entirely misleading because they make no allowance for the structural uncertainties in the model set up.This is where scientific judgment comes in – some people are better at pattern recognition and meaningful correlation than others. A past record of successful forecasting such as indicated above is a useful but not infallible measure. In this case I am reasonably sure – say 65/35 for about 20 years ahead. Beyond that certainty drops rapidly. I am sure, however, that it will prove closer to reality than anything put out by the IPCC, Met Office or the NASA group. In any case this is a Bayesian type forecast- in that it can easily be amended on an ongoing basis as the Temperature and Solar data accumulate. If there is not a 0.15 – 0.20. drop in Global SSTs by 2018 -20 I would need to re-evaluate.”

    • Dmh

      Thanks for the link to “Climatesense-norpag”. Very interesting analysis.

    • Dmh

      I also like very much the following analysis of WeatherPhil at
      “westernusawx.info”, based on the AAM and global atmospheric
      circulation, driven mainly by EM interactions with the Sun (including
      the present excursion of Earth’s magnetic NP),
      http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?s=d849115772c374235012a73f7ac760ef&showtopic=33725&page=1

      The whole point IMO is the solar forcing, we’re in the hands of the Sun, so to speak. If we really enter a grand minimum now, of the Maunder type as many are predicting (including Leif Svalgaard, based on the L&P effect) I believe we’ll be at LIA levels already at the end of the 2020′s.

    • zlop

      Seems like reasoning from the 1,050 cycle peaks is likely to be more accurate. From other predictions, Indications are that it is past peak.

      The 4,500 year cycle is missing, and the drop could be quicker than expected http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0147e2d17582970b-pi

  • http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/ Joseph G Figliola

    With some luck, then, Michael Mann will live long enough to experience the irrefutable evidence of what a putz he is.

  • http://www.shbew.com SHBEW

    The one flaw is the assumption of a pattern in the solar cycles that will repeat. It is possible that density and magnetic strength of the local interstellar cloud through which the sun is traveling control the output of the sun. and it is possible that there are “waves” of density/intensity in the interstellar medium. I’d go so far as to say this is likely. if so, the ability to predict future climate, hinges on our ability to measure or predict these waves. patterns and repetition within this medium are not necessarily perpetual. also exists the possibility that they can be over-ridden by larger waves or troughs. with that said, I think it is likely that the prediction of an upcoming cool period is likely. I don’t agree it can be said, “it is so”.

  • AnimeGuy

    I hope it happens but so sad most of us wont be around when it happens

  • MT Keef

    No one knows what the climate will be like a week from now let alone a hundred years from now but we do know somethings going by the past. We know there are periods of warmth and cold on regular cycles from small, mid the the drastic levels of changes and climate is always changing. In a human lifetime, one will see either two warming phases and one cold or two cold and one warming since these last about 30 years. We just came out of a warm phase from the early 1980s and are starting into a cold phase again in which winters will start out feeling much colder like what we just saw and will grow longer but no more than the 1950-80 climatology. We can toss out western graphs since a picture is a thousand words and the so called 1979 lines of the Arctic Ice mass now show it growing outside the 79 levels in some areas and starting to fill in the lines in other areas over the last three years rather than what we were told would happen so out goes global warming and anyone can type in and see global warming scientists gave up and admitted defeat. There are the mid sized phases that lasts about 200 or 250 years of extreme warmth or cooling such as a mini ice age like Russian scientists believe is happening but that is as extreme as the global warming scientists we had yapping for years in the States so not likely this century but it would cause snows even in Miami some winters with heavy snows each winter in Atlanta. The great extremes that come ever 20 or more thousand years cause palm trees to grow in northern Canada or ice to stay on the ground as far south as Atlanta in summer months with heavy snows in Tampa and the last one cause the Great Lakes to form in that Ice Age. I see no evidence of either extreme this century so going by most likely yet not knowing the future, I have to go along with we are simply back in a 30 year phase of cooling that will later change back to 30 years of warming yet not as warm as the last warm phase. Humans have little to do with climate change but sure have big egos. We do cause a City Heat Island Effect and nothing more than that other than pollution but we are normal to earth so the planet is capable of controlling things as a living planet. Best advice is never worry about climate, it is going to be okay and just enjoy the seasons of the year you like most. I like fall and winter some like spring and summer. It’s all going to be okay even a hundred years from now.

  • JH

    This reminds me what our USA scientists used to say in the early 80′s until it became a political football and about staying funded