‘A planned economic recession’: Global warming prof. Kevin Anderson – who has ‘cut back on showering’ to save planet – asserts economic ‘de-growth’ is needed to fight climate change


By: - Climate DepotNovember 25, 2013 4:10 PM with 8 comments

Kevin Anderson, a professor of Energy and Climate Change at the University of Manchester and Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK, reaffirms his analysis that economic ‘de-growth’ is necessary to fight global warming.  (kevin.anderson@manchester.ac.uk)

Excerpts from his latest essay dated November 25, 2013: 

Avoiding dangerous climate change demands de-growth strategies from wealthier nations

 Don’t shoot the messenger: why disliking a conclusion is not a good basis for disregarding it. 

“… for a reasonable probability of avoiding the 2°C characterization of dangerous climate change, the wealthier (Annex 1) nations need, temporarily, to adopt a de-growth strategy.”

Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows-Larkin
Climate Change negotiations; Warsaw 2013

Anderson Excerpts: This article summaries the reasoning behind the contentious conclusion arising from Alice Bows-Larkin and my research – that continuing with economic growth over the coming two decades is incompatible with meeting our international obligations on climate change. The piece was catalysed by a twitter dialogue between Nikolai Astrup (a Norwegian MP), Glen Peters (a researcher at Cicero), Paul Price and me, and followed the Tyndall Centre/Cicero event (slides available from the Tyndall site) at the Warsaw climate change negotiations (COP19, Nov. 2013).

To summaries, if: 
1.  reductions in emissions greater than 3-4% p.a. are incompatible with a growing economy,
2.  the 2°C obligation relates to a twenty-first century carbon budget,
3.  a 50% chance of exceeding 2°C is adjudged an acceptable risk of failure,
4.  and Non-Annex 1 nations peak emissions by 2025 & subsequently reduce at ~7% p.a.,
5.  then the wealthier nations’ carbon budget is the global 2°C budget minus the poorer nations’ budget,
6.  and consequently wealthier nations must reduce emissions at 8 to 10% p.a.,
7. Q.E.D. Annex 1 mitigation rates for 2°C are incompatible with economic growth

For Anderson’s full analysis see here.

[Climate Depot NoteClimategate’s Phil Jones admitted the 2C target temperature was was ‘plucked out of thin air’]

Related Links: 

Update: Warmist Kevin Anderson, who advocates ‘planned recessions’ and cut back on his showering, tells UN climate summit: ‘Nations should give up growth obsession’ – Focus instead on ‘health and food and shelter’  - Anderson: ‘Industrialized countries need a 70% reduction in emissions consumption in 10 years to give us an outside chance of holding temperatures to a 2C rise. They need to cut emissions by 10% annually.’

Flashback: Kevin Anderson ‘cuts back on washing and showering’ to fight climate change – Admits at UN climate summit: ‘That is why I smell’ – Defends his call for ‘a planned economic recession’  – Excerpts: 

‘A planned economic recession’ to fight global warming

Morano then asked about Anderson’s advocacy of “planned recessions” to help reduce emissions and allegedly reduce man-made global warming. See: ‘Planned recession’ could avoid catastrophic climate change

Anderson responded: “First, it’s not ‘believe’. I concluded. And it’s related to some caveats that went with it.”

Anderson and his colleague Alice Bows wrote in 2008: “Unless economic growth can be reconciled with unprecedented rates of decarbonization (in excess of 6% per year15), it is difficult to envisage anything other than a planned economic recession being compatible with stabilization at or below 650 ppmv CO2e.”

Anderson and Bows explained that global warming was such an urgent problem that it “demands a radical reframing of both the climate change agenda, and the economic characterization of contemporary society.”

Morano concluded the interview with Anderson by stating: “So you don’t shower, you don’t bathe regularly. You believe in planned recessions.”

moranoanderson

More Links: 

Warmist Kevin Anderson on his personal efforts to prevent CO2-induced bad weather: ‘I’ve done without a fridge for 12 years, but recently relented…I’ve cut back on washing and showering’ – 2012 – -kevin.anderson@manchester.ac.uk

‘Planned recession’ could avoid catastrophic climate change – A new report from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research said these targets are inadequate to keep global warming below two degrees C above pre-industrial levels. The report says the only way to avoid going beyond the dangerous tipping point is to double the target to 70 per cent by 2020. This would mean reducing the size of the economy through a “planned recession”. Kevin Anderson, director of the research body, said the building of new airports, petrol cars and dirty coal-fired power stations will have to be halted in the UK until new technology provides an alternative to burning fossil fuels.

Flashback 2012: Warmist Kevin Anderson weighs in again: our best and possibly only hope for survival is an economic crash, or at least a planned ‘recession’

Flashback 2011: Warmist Kevin Anderson, dir. of UK’s Tyndall Centre: ‘I think it’s extremely unlikely that we wouldn’t have mass death at 4 degrees’ rise in temps — ‘terrifying’  [Note: Anderson told Climate Depot that he was misquoted about the ‘mass death’ in the 2011 news article and registered a complaint with the newspaper]

Physicist slams Tyndall’s Kevin Anderson for doomsday preaching: ‘I wonder whether those loons actively realize what they are saying’ — Suggests Anderson belongs ‘in a psychiatric asylum’

2011: Warmist Kevin Anderson: Global warming ‘requires radical changes in behavior, particularly from those of us with very high energy consumption’ – ‘Models guiding climate policy are ‘dangerously optimistic’ — ‘Sweeping changes necessary for industrialized nations to drastically reduce their emissions’

2009: Ramp up the fear! The Whole World is Laughing at UK Professor Kevin Anderson: Claims global warming will ‘wipe out billions’ — only around half a billion people – will survive!’

Climate Depot’s Morano At UN Press Conference in Warsaw Denounces Exploitation of Typhoon to ‘an unappreciative audience’: Morano ‘compared the belief that policy can change the weather to ‘medieval witchcraft’

Climate Depot’s Morano & Apollo 7 Astronaut Walt Cunningham featured at ‘a UN-sanctioned press conference’ at UN Climate Summit in Warsaw, Poland: Skeptics Met By Hostile UN Crowd, told their skeptical views are ‘bullshit’ asked ‘How do you sleep at night?’ – Morano congratulates Australia for pulling out of UN climate talks

UN Climate Summit Rejects Its Own Science – Links Typhoon Haiyan to Global Warming – UN Summit Degenerates Into Unscientific Claims to Advance Political Agenda – Climate Depot Special Report

 


  • cwon1

    This policy has been in place for decades.

  • GoBeeJay

    The man is not in touch reality along with Al Gore, Jim Hansen, Jim Cameron, Michael Mann, or other ‘save the planters’ who must also believe in Witches, Dragons, Papal Indulgences, Tulip Trading and Fool’s Gold……….

  • spyeatte

    Prof. Anderson needs to be retired to the asylum. He is deranged.

  • Tj B

    The population growth is going to cause the use of more energy. Ways to make energy more efficiently can be achieved. Cleaning out excess CO2 from coal furnaces is do-able. These carbon taxes, etc. they want to impose need to be more of a partnership between people, companies and govs. Not as a tax but, as a research effort. Then we’ll see what can really be done to clean up after our selves!
    I’m all in favor for clean water and clean air but, there methods are not the answer. Curbing of population growth could help, that’s a slippery slope. Telling someone you can have kids…I say you can have them if you can afford to raise them, educate them and not make them a burden on society because you can’t! I made sure all my children were provided for!

    climate change is really not in our control, maybe a small,small,small part. The wise use of natural resources is!

  • SaneSage

    This is a curious mix of intelligence, on one side, and delusion, on the other side. The belief that someone can lower the earth temperature by taking less showers is a blatant and pathological delusion, something common among warmists.

  • Terry Field

    Anderson does not understand the world. He will drive most people away from him; he is indulging his northern fantasy to experience basic, miserable conditions. He should get on with it on his own.
    Lovelock is correct in saying that democracy cannot provide these radical changes.
    The alternative is autocracy.
    That is fine if it is the only way.
    But it won’t happen – peoples will compete to survive, be willing to kill strangers and neighbours, believing they can be the ‘winners’ – that will give them hope rather than experience the despair of the destruction of their 250 year old civilisation.
    The americans know that climate change will be far more severe for China and others than it will be for them and their component part, Canada; they will therefore use global climate change as an instrument of policy – they know that the projections make most of China uninhabitable, but that is not the case for the US/Canada.
    Since Clausewitz, war has been an instrument of policy, and this is a form of war; it is understood by the serious players precisely what is happening and what will happen, give or take a decade or so.
    Democracy and social structures will be reinforced by conflicts over resources if total nuclear catastrophe is avoided; but Mr Anderson’s suggested global ‘dirty protest’ will destroy social order, since societies need optimism like they need water.
    So conflict it will be.
    And the United States will be the relative winner. And after the cold war trained us to understand horror, relative success will do nicely.

  • TruckerMark

    I will say this. Current sustainability planning policy in-force by the government of India assumes that nations with greater supplies of water and food will have to accept several hundred million excess people from India as their water and food supplies become increasingly stretched due to climate change.

    How about since Great Britain at one time ruled India as a colony that they accept at least 50-100 million climate refugees from India along with the US and Canada too, on top of at least 50-100 million surplus Chinese citizens each once China’s own water and food supplies also exceed critical supply shortage limits?

    Have you read recently that the entire country of Pakistan only has 30 days of water supply on hand, or that the Brazilian cities of Sao Paulo and Recife are down to their last 45 days of water supply, along with Mexico City too? How many people out of the total of almost 300 million between those cities and countries are also going to be forced to move elsewhere to survive, and where will they move without destabilizing the dwindling sustainability of anywhere else?

    Have you read the latest bad news out of the Arctic where warming is proceeding at a pace several times more-rapidly than it is in more-temperate parts of our world, which has been causing an immense and ever-growing record amount of natural methane emissions to flood into our common atmosphere from melting permafrost and glacial cover, as well as from melting methyl hydrates in shallow-depth Arctic sea beds?

    Have you read the recent forecast that says that if we can’t reduce man-made GHG emissions by 80-90% by 2030 that by 2060 there is a very high chance of human extinction on our planet, caused by ever-greater annual man-made carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions plus record amounts of Asian black carbon soot, which including Arctic methane feedbacks will cause a global average temperature rise of as much as 20 degrees Celsius?

    If global average temperatures increase by just 5 degrees Celsius between 1.5 and 2 billion people worldwide will be driven from their homes due to record heatwaves projected to increase in severity and longevity by quadruple by 2050, along with declining annual runoff, greater surface water-supply evaporation, shallow-depth groundwater evaporation, drying soils, and the resultant ever greater overuse of our remaining aquifers.

    On down the road a piece if we last that long the human race is also looking at the end of phosphate fertilizers, which will cut crop yields by half, while at the same time water-supplies will be in critical shortage, which means that anyone alive then will have to learn not only to drink a lot less water but also to eat a lot less too!

    Have you ever seen this chart? Personally I think that the actual amount of climate change will be somewhere in the middle between the white and blue lines, which would only give us another 10-15 years before 95-99% of the human race is driven extinct, as about the only places remaining that would be survivable would be underground or in areas of perpetual shadow near large deep bodies of fresh water. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HFOv5xtsctE/Uq952iCqRgI/AAAAAAAAMLs/jmrvFuEjR3w/s1600/Three-kinds-of-warming-Nov-2013.jpg

    This is the caption that goes with the chart:

    [quote] “As above image shows, a polynomial trendline already points at global
    temperature anomalies of 5°C by 2060. Even worse, a polynomial trendline
    for the Arctic shows temperature anomalies of 4°C by 2020, 7°C by 2030
    and 11°C by 2040, threatening to cause major feedbacks to kick in,
    including albedo changes and methane releases that will trigger runaway
    global warming that looks set to eventually catch up with accelerated
    warming in the Arctic and result in global temperature anomalies of
    20°C+ by 2050″. [end quote]

    Here are the scientific findings on runaway global warming:

    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/a-runaway-greenhouse-event.html

    Here is a November, 2013 scientific statement on runaway Arctic natural methane emissions:

    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/methane-levels-going-through-the-roof.html

    Here is a December, 2013 warning on Arctic natural methane emissions:

    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-time-has-come-to-spread-the-message.html

    As well as another dire warning from a different writer:

    Summary:

    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/12/act-now-on-methane.html

    Full Scientific Study:

    https://sites.google.com/site/runawayglobalwarming/the-non-disclosed-extreme-arctic-methane-threat

    Here is a video on the same subject:

    Press release:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/09/thom-hartmann-idUSnPNLA94934+1e0+PRN20131009

    Video:

    http://lasthours.org/

    This item is only 2 & 1/2 weeks old.

    http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/01/28/arctic-heat-wave-sets-off-hottest-ever-winter-time-temperatures-major-melt-disasters-for-coastal-and-interior-alaska/

    Check this chart of temperature anomalies for January 26-28th, 2014 out:

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vBW56Q6CsJI/UuiNsE0_srI/AAAAAAAAMls/m7Tp1Qncr-M/s1600/Jan-26-28-2014.jpg

    This item about the growing lack of world food supply security is only a week old:

    http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/world-food-security-in-the-cross-hairs-of-human-caused-climate-change-mangled-jet-stream-ocean-heat-and-melting-sea-ice-to-deliver-500-year-drought-to-california-brazil-turkey-australia-and-more/

    This item is only 8 days old too:

    http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/02/05/arctic-warmth-in-early-february-sees-200000-square-kilometers-of-sea-ice-lost-greenland-melt-as-new-study-finds-massive-glacier-triples-its-seaward-velocity/

    Carbon dioxide growth for 2013 was the highest annual increase on-record! (6 days old)

    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/02/co2-growth-highest-on-record.html

    Actually, Kevin Anderson is quite right, perhaps even a bit on the conservative side. This is no laughing matter, it is deadly serious. Either we act immediately and vigorously to rapidly reduce man-made GHG emissions or our grandchildren aren’t going to have a planet to live on, and I am afraid that economic growth, continuing population growth, and profits are not considerations that we can afford any longer, as otherwise a whole lot of people are going to die.

    • Frank Black

      Sorry mate, but us brits have enough muslims here as it is.