Update: ‘Hottest Year’ in U.S. Called into Question — 1930s Still Reign as Hottest? — Global Temps remain stagnant


By: - Climate DepotJanuary 9, 2013 10:48 AM

Climate Depot Round Up — (For more on ‘hottest year’ claims see: Claims of ‘Warmest Year’ For Continental U.S. (Less than 2% of Earth’s Surface) Ignore Flat Global Temperature Trend — UK Telegraph: ‘Global warming at a standstill’, new Met Office figures show — ‘by 2017 temps will have remained about same for 2 decades’)

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2012 Didn’t Crack The Top Ten For Record Maximums: ‘NOAA has inflated 2012 record maximum number by adding new stations which didn’t exist during the hot years of 1930s” — ‘That is a completely illegitimate approach. An apples to apples comparison uses only the same stations. When that is done, 2012 doesn’t even crack the ten hottest years’

Feds caught altering past temperature data: NOAA claims 1998 was previous ‘hottest on record’ on record — But in 1999, the same year was only the 5th warmest before ‘adjustments’ — ‘In an article which NASA published in 1999, Hansen showed that 1998 was only the fifth warmest year, after 1934, 1921, 1931 and 1953. In fact, 1998 was 0.6C cooler than 1934′ — ‘Over the past decade, NASA and NOAA have continuously altered the temperature record to cool the past and warm the present. Their claims are straight out Orwell’s 1984, and have nothing to do with science’

Experts cool on global warming: UK Weather office cuts temperature predictions by 20% in ‘return to humility’ ‘Global warming has stalled and will not raise world temps over the next 5 years’ — Prof. Ross McKitrick: ‘There are so many models that are now so far off that it suggests a wider problem with the technique…It’s like Keynesian economic models in 1970s that kept predicting high inflation would bring down unemployment. Eventually they were so far off reality that it was no longer a case of trying to fine tune bits that didn’t fit, economists had to admit the underlying theory was wrong and start over.’

’2012 was the 11th warmest year GLOBALLY on their 34-year-long record, rather close to the median’ according to RSS AMSU satellite data — Therefore warmists focus on 1.6% of the globe — ‘Because the global mean temperature in 2012 (and most of the previous years) looked so unspectacular, the media focused on a different quantity. 2012 was warmest year in (continental) U.S. on record…Look at other regions such as Europe or Asia or Australia or… even the notorious Arctic… and you will see that 2012 wasn’t spectacular as far as its temperature went’

NASA & RealClimate.org’s Gavin Schmidt: Remember when the U.S. was cold, & I told you that U.S. temps weren’t meaningful? Now that U.S. was warm, I just remembered that U.S. temps *are* meaningful

Flashback 2010: Gavin Schmidt during continental U.S. cooler times: ‘Keep in mind that that the contiguous United States represents just 1.5 percent of Earth’s surface’

Flashback: 2009: NASA’s James Hansen: ‘Of course, the contiguous 48 states cover only 1.5 percent of the world area, so the U.S. temperature does not affect the global temperature much’

Media Progress! NY Times admits no global warming: 2012 was warm continental U.S-wise, but not globally — admits the New York Times — NYT: “Even so, the last year’s record for the U.S. is not expected to translate into a global temperature record when figures are released in the coming weeks’

Physicist Dr. Clive Best mocks global temp predictions: ‘What is really going on is their sophisticated climate models are being continuously tuned so as to ‘backcast’ & agree with past temp data’ — Dr. Best: ‘There has been no warming for 17 years. As a result the parameters are now showing little AGW at all for the next 10 years. A scientist should ask the following question. If predictions of global climate models from just 2 years ago have now been invalidated by the data, how can we now have any faith in new predictions made with the same models but with various fudge factors added?’

Shhhhhh. Global warming slowly fading away: ‘The fact that UK Met Office had changed its near-term global warming forecast quietly on Christmas Eve was noticed by some Met Office watchers’

Is NOAA Misleading the Public by Including Tropical Cyclones in its 2012 Climate Extremes Index Ranking? — ‘NOAA fails to note in the summary that the landfalling tropical cyclones were so low that NOAA lowered the ranking on its Climate Extremes Index by including them. That is, without landfalling tropical cyclones, 2012 would have ranked number one on Climate Extremes Index’

Was ‘Hottest Year on Record’ Based on Phony Data? ‘It appears that NCDC has been keeping two sets of data: one for public (and gullible MSM) consumption and the other the actual stats’

The Australian Heatwave Of 1923-1924: ‘ The worst heatwave ever recorded was at Marble Bar, Australia in 1923 and 1924. They had 160 days in a row over one hundred degrees’

Question for NYT’s Andrew Revkin: ‘On Dot Earth recently, why have you found time to write about warm weather in Australia, yet you haven’t found time to write about cold weather in lots of other places?’

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For previous report on ‘Hottest Year’ in U.S. claims see:

Claims of ‘Warmest Year’ For Continental U.S. (Less than 2% of Earth’s Surface) Ignore Flat Global Temperature Trend — UK Telegraph: ‘Global warming at a standstill’, new Met Office figures show — ‘by 2017 temps will have remained about same for 2 decades’)

NOAA Claim: 2012 was warmest year ever for US, second most ‘extreme’

Reality Check: Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: ‘If you used the stations used in 1930s — in other words –measured temps today with what we used in 1930s, it is not warmest year on record’ –‘We have many more stations and so many, many more records that can be broken over shorter time spans. US is only 2% of the globe that’s only .04 above’

 
 

New Report: ‘Extreme Weather Report 2012′: ‘Latest peer-reviewed studies, data & analyses undermine claims that current weather is ‘unprecedented’ or a ‘new normal’
Leading German Daily Announces: ‘Global Warming Has Stopped’, Questions IPCC Models It took them 15 years to notice it: CO2 is not driving the climate — ‘German online daily Hamburger Abendblatt here has a story titled: Global Warming Takes A Break, citing the leaked copy of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, which is due to be released in September, 2013′

UK Daily Mail: ‘GLOBAL warming is NOT as bad as feared’: Met Office under fire as it claims Earth’s temperature is rising more slowly than first thought (and could even have stalled) — ‘Global warming is not causing temperatures to rise as quickly as previously feared, the Met Office has claimed. Today the weather agency released its revised forecast which was quickly seized upon by climate change skeptics who used the data to claim global warming has stopped’

 
UK Met Office cuts projected 2017 temperature by 38%: ‘The big story of the day is that the UK Met Office has cut its projection for global temperature in 2017 by ’20 percent.’ However, graphs supplied by the UK Met Office actually show a 38% cut in projected 2017 temperature, from a ~ 0.7C anomaly projected last year, to the new projection of 0.43C’
 
BBC: A new global temperature forecast ‘has scaled back projections of the amount of warming they expect’ — ‘The UK Met Office explained that the leveling off of global temperatures that we were experiencing can be expected at time periods of a decade or less, because of the computer models internal climate variability. But intriguingly, the research ruled out zero trends for time periods of 15 years or more. The new projection, if correct, would mean there will have been little additional warming for two decades despite rising greenhouse gases’The other big story today: BBC forced to admit global warming ‘static’: ‘Forecast for warming revised downward’ — ‘The UK Met Office has revised one of its forecasts for how much the world may warm in the next few years’

Dr. David Whitehouse of Global Warming Policy Foundation on global temps: ‘We are at the point where the temperature standstill is becoming the dominant feature of the post-1980 warming’ ‘…and as such cannot be dismissed as being unimportant even when viewed over 30 years. ‘It is time that the scientific community in general and the IPCC in particular acknowledged the reality of the global temperature standstill and the very real challenge it implies for our understanding of climate change and estimates of its future effects’

AP warmist reporter Seth Borenstein cranks the hype meter to 12: In describing an average temperature of 55.32 degrees F, uses words like ‘superhot’ and ‘roasts’

Meteorologist discovers U.S. government announcing records before all data analyzed; ‘warmest ever’ July not true — Meteorologist Anthony Watts announced on Sunday that he has discovered serious inconsistencies in the temperature data released to the public by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of NOAA. This finding is important since it reveals that the widely-reported assertion that July 2012 was the hottest month in the instrumental record for the contiguous U.S. is wrong’

Claim: UN IPCC Temperature Projections Have Been Exceptionally Accurate
Reality Check: ‘There’s been no warming since the mid-1990s despite 8% more CO2 in the atmosphere’

2010 tied for ‘hottest’ year?! Relax, it is ‘purely a political statement’ — Even NASA’s Hansen admits it is ‘not particularly important’ — Prof. mocks ‘hottest decade’ claim as ‘a joke’ — ‘Claims based on year-to-year temperature data that differs by only a few HUNDREDTHS of a degree’

Related links on 16 years of a lack of GLOBAL warming:

UK Daily Mail: ‘Global warming stopped 16 years ago’ according to UK Met Office ‘quietly released’ report — ‘Pause’ in warming lasted about same time as when temps rose, 1980 to 1996′ — ‘The new data, compiled from more than 3,000 measuring points on land & sea, was issued quietly on internet, without any media fanfare, & , until today, it has not been reported. This stands in sharp contrast to release of previous figures 6 months ago, which went only to end of 2010 – a very warm year…From beginning of 1997 until August 2012 there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temps.’UK Daily Mail: ‘Claim that there has been any statistically significant warming for past 16 years is therefore unsustainable’ — Reaffirms ‘a 16-year ‘pause’ in rising temps’ — ‘Two new separate peer-reviewed studies, published in prestigious academic journals last week [challenged 'Hockey Stick'] — ‘The level of warmth during the peak of the MWP in the second half of the 10th Century, equaled or slightly exceeded the mid-20th Century warming.’ There was also a pronounced warming period in Roman times’

Flashback 2011: A PNAS peer-reviewed admission that ‘global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008′

Prof. Judith Curry on 16 year global temps: ‘ Nothing in Met Office’s statement…effectively refutes [UK Daily Mail] Rose’s argument that there has been no increase in global avg. surface temps for past 16 years’ — Curry defends UK Daily Mail article: ‘How does this refute Rose’s argument? No statistically significant positive trend, and it makes it look like [warmist Skeptical Science] hasn’t done their homework with the latest data’

Prof. Curry: ‘I think Rose’s 2nd article is well done. He lays out arguments the other ‘side’ is making, & provides his response. It is a reasonable portrayal of debate surrounding this issue’ — Judith Curry: ‘The trend since 1997 is very small, much smaller than the decadal trend of 0.2C that we have been led to expect by the IPCC for the early part of the 21st century…’

Analysis on 16 year ‘pause’ in global warmng: ‘Regarding the significance of the period from 1997, recall that Dr. Ben Santer claimed 17 years was the period needed’ — ‘They find that tropospheric temperature records must be at least 17 years long to discriminate between internal climate noise and the signal of human-caused changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere.’ — MIT Professor Richard Lindzen said something similar in a WUWT guest post: ‘There has been no warming since 1997 and no statistically significant warming since 1995.’

Lüning/Vahrenholt On HadCRUT’s 16 Years Of No Warming: ‘Tough Times Ahead For Climate Science’ — ‘It turns out that everything that had been suspected was confirmed’ — ‘This is a completely unexpected development when one considers how all the boldly confident forecasts from the IPCC predicted more warming. The release of new HadCRUT figures occurred almost in absolute silence, without any media buzz whatsoever…One really has got to wonder that Jones has suddenly extended his personal threshold of pain to 20 years, and now claims that phases of no warming 15-16 years long had always been expected.’

Prof. Judith Curry: ‘The data confirms existence of a ‘pause’ in warming’: ‘The natural variability has been shown over past 2 decades to have a magnitude that dominates greenhouse warming signal’ — Curry: ‘It is becoming increasingly apparent that our attribution of warming since 1980 and future projections of climate change needs to consider natural internal variability as a factor of fundamental importance. I sincerely hope that the AR5 provides an assessment of what we know and what we don’t know and areas of disagreement, rather than trying to manufacture a consensus.’

New Phil Jones quote: ‘We don’t know what natural variability is doing’ — ‘We don’t fully understand how to input things like changes in the oceans’ — ‘…and because we don’t fully understand it you could say that natural variability is now working to suppress the warming. We don’t know what natural variability is doing..’

Climategate’s Phil Jones ‘insisted that 15 or 16 years is not a significant period: pauses of such length had always been expected, he said’ in 2012 — ‘Yet in 2009, when the [temperature] plateau was already becoming apparent and being discussed by scientists, Jones told a colleague in one of the Climategate emails: ‘Bottom line: the ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.’ — ‘In other words, though 5 years ago he seemed to be saying that 15 years without warming would make him ‘worried’, that period has now become 20 years’

Flashback 2009: Prof. Pielke Jr.: ‘Kudos to NOAA for being among the first to explicitly state what sort of observation would be inconsistent with model predictions — 15 years of no warming’

‘The UK Met Office says world has warmed by 0.03 deg C per decade since 1997…But what the Met Office doesn’t say is that this is statistically insignificant’ — ‘There is no case to be made for a statistically significant increase in global temperatures as given in the Hadcrut4 dataset between 1997 and August 2012. The Met Office says the 15-year standstill is not unusual. This is true but again the Met Office is being economical with the truth’

NOAA’s ’15 year statement’ from 2008 puts a kibosh on the current Met Office ‘insignificance’ claims that global warming flatlined for 16 years — ‘Yet, today, we see evidence of the goalposts being moved again as the Met Office tries to paint this lack of warming ‘plateau’ as being insignificant…So we are at 16 years, soon to be 17 years. What happens when we hit 20 years? Either the models are worth something or they aren’t. In this case it seems they aren’t’

UK Met Office: CO2 causes warming; other factors cause cooling — ‘We have known for some time that [multi-decadal oceanic cycles] may act to slow down or accelerate observed warming trend’ — ‘We also know that changes in the surface temperature occur not just due to internal variability, but are also influenced by ‘external forcings’, such as changes in solar activity, volcanic eruptions or aerosol emissions. Combined, several of these factors could account for some or all of the reduced warming trend seen over the last decade – but this is an area of ongoing research’

Analysis: Global Warming Standstill Confirmed: ‘There is now no consistent increase in temperature seen in this data. The data, displayed this way, reveals that far from showing a steady underlying rate of warming the global temperature has had two standstills, with curiously, the 1998 super El Nino delineating them.’

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