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Analysis: Trump KO’s ’60 Minutes’ on ‘climate change’ – Trump’s skeptical remarks were ‘scientifically, politically and economically accurate’

The mainstream media once again attempted to challenge President Donald Trump on “climate change,” but Trump emerged unscathed by refuting typical climate claims with accurate and remarkably scientific comments in an October 14, 2018, 60 Minutes interview. (Even the mainstream media acknowledged Trump’s overall interview victory: See:  Variety: ’60 Minutes’ Was Outmatched by Trump – ‘He won every segment of the interview’) Video here:  A Climate Depot analysis finds that President Trump’s climate remarks were scientifically, politically and economically accurate. Finally, the United States has a president who understands “global warming”! See: Full climate transcript: Trump: Scientists who promote ‘climate’ fears ‘have a very big political agenda’ – [As Variety noted, Trump understands how to battle the mainstream media: Reporter Lesley Stahl asked Trump about “the scientists who say [the effects of climate change are] worse than ever,” but was [she] unprepared to cite one; knowing, now, that the human factor will not work on Trump, a broadcaster should be prepared to cite hard facts in a faceoff with the President.] President Trump to 60 Minutes: “I think something’s happening. Something’s changing and it’ll change back again,” he said. “I don’t think it’s a hoax. I think there’s probably a difference. But I don’t know that it’s manmade. I will say this: I don’t want to give trillions and trillions of dollars. I don’t want to lose millions and millions of jobs.” … “I’m not denying climate change,” he said in the interview. Reality Check: President Trump is frankly giving his assessment of man-made climate change and his understanding is in agreement with some very high profile scientists. Trump has been remarkably consistent with his climate views, demanding that the “The Nobel committee should take the Nobel Prize back from Al Gore” in the wake of the Climategate revelations in 2010. Trump is also correct on so-called climate “solutions” costing “trillions and trillions” of dollars. See: ‘GLOBAL WARMING’ ‘SOLUTIONS”  COULD COST $122 TRILLION  & Bjorn Lomborg on UN climate deal: ‘This is likely to be among most expensive treaties in the history of the world’ The peer-reviewed scientific literature is also bolstering Trump’s comments: 368 New 2018 Papers Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Claims Prominent scientists agree with President Trump: Nobel Prize-winning physicist Dr. Ivar Giever told the new book, “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change,” that “The Earth has existed for maybe 4.5 billion years, and now the alarmists will have us believe that because of the small rise in temperature for roughly 150 years (which, by the way, I believe you cannot really measure) we are doomed unless we stop using fossil fuels…You and I breathe out at least thirty tons of CO2 in a normal lifespan, but nevertheless, the Environmental Protection Agency decided to classify rising carbon-dioxide emissions as a hazard to human health.” The claim here is that carbon dioxide can have a warming impact on the atmosphere, but this does not mean CO2 is the control knob of the climate. As the University of London professor emeritus Philip Stott has noted: “The fundamental point has always been this. Climate change is governed by hundreds of factors, or variables, and the very idea that we can manage climate change predictably by understanding and manipulating at the margins one politically-selected factor (CO2), is as misguided as it gets.” “It’s scientific nonsense,” Stott added. Even the global warming activists at RealClimate.org acknowledged this in a September 20, 2008 article, stating, “The actual temperature rise is an emergent property resulting from interactions among hundreds of factors.” Atmospheric scientist Hendrik Tennekes, a pioneer in development of numerical weather prediction and former director of research at the Netherlands’ Royal National Meteorological Institute, has declared (as quoted in my book): “I protest vigorously the idea that the climate reacts like a home heating system to a changed setting of the thermostat: just turn the dial, and the desired temperature will soon be reached.” Richard Lindzen, an MIT climate scientist, said that believing CO2 controls the climate “is pretty close to believing in magic.” Climate Depot revealed the real way they find the “fingerprint” of CO2. “We are creating great anxiety without it being justified … there are no indications that the warming is so severe that we need to panic,” award-winning climate scientist Lennart Bengtsson said. “The warming we have had the last 100 years is so small that if we didn’t have meteorologists and climatologists to measure it we wouldn’t have noticed it at all.” University of Pennsylvania Geologist Dr. Robert Giegengack noted in 2014, “None of the strategies that have been offered by the U.S. government or by the EPA or by anybody else has the remotest chance of altering climate if in fact climate is controlled by carbon dioxide.” In layman’s terms: All of the so-called ‘solutions’ to global warming are purely symbolic when it comes to climate. So, even if we actually faced a climate catastrophe and we had to rely on a UN climate agreement, we would all be doomed! Renowned Princeton Physicist Freeman Dyson: ‘I’m 100% Democrat and I like Obama. But he took the wrong side on climate issue, and the Republicans took the right side’ – An Obama supporter who describes himself as “100 per cent Democrat,” Dyson is disappointed that the President “chose the wrong side.” Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere does more good than harm, he argues, and humanity doesn’t face an existential crisis. ‘What has happened in the past 10 years is that the discrepancies between what’s observed and what’s predicted have become much stronger. Nobel Prize-Winning Scientist Dr. Ivar Giaever, Who Endorsed Obama Now Says Prez. is ‘Ridiculous’ & ‘Dead Wrong’ on ‘Global Warming’ – Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Dr. Ivar Giaever: ‘Global warming is a non-problem’ – ‘I say this to Obama: Excuse me, Mr. President, but you’re wrong. Dead wrong.’ ‘Global warming really has become a new religion.’ – “I am worried very much about the [UN] conference in Paris in 2015…I think that the people who are alarmist are in a very strong position.’ Green Guru James Lovelock reverses belief in ‘global warming’: Now says ‘I’m not sure the whole thing isn’t crazy’ – Condemns green movement: ‘It’s a religion really, It’s totally unscientific’ – Lovelock rips scientists attempting to predict temperatures as ‘idiots’: “Anyone who tries to predict more than five to 10 years is a bit of an idiot, because so many things can change unexpectedly.” – Lovelock Featured in Climate Hustle – Watch Lovelock transform from climate fear promoter to climate doubter! # Trump on 60 Minutes: Lesley Stahl tells Trump: “I wish you could go to Greenland, watch these huge chunks of ice just falling into the ocean, raising the sea levels.” – President Trump responds: “And you don’t know whether or not that would have happened with or without man. You don’t know.” Reality Check: Once again, President Trump has peer-reviewed science on his side. See: ‘Staggering’ Ice Melt ‘Deceptions’: Greenland’s Ice Sheet Melt Has Added Just 0.39 Of A Centimeter To Global Sea Levels Since 1993 2017: Greenland Ice Mass Increases To Near Record  Analysis of Greenland temperatures finds they ‘were just as high in 1930s & 40s as they have been in recent years’ – Recent Summer temps are lower – Summer ‘temperatures since 2000 for the main part are, if anything, lower then the 1930s and 40s’ Climatologists: ‘The death of the Greenland disaster story’ – ‘Taming the Greenland Melting Global Warming Hype’ – Climatologists: ‘Humans just can’t make it warm enough up there to melt all that much ice’ Study finds ice isn’t being lost from Greenland’s interior – Published in journal Science New paper shows N. Greenland was warmer during the early 20th century (1920-1940) & during Medieval Warm Period Defying Climate Models, Greenland Cooled By -1.5°C During 1940-1995 As Human CO2 Emissions Rates Rose 600% Flashback 1939: Scientist warns of ‘catastrophic collapse’ of Greenland’s ice Flashback 1947: Warming in Arctic, Antarctic & Greenland to cause sea level ‘rise in catastrophic proportions’ Update: Climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels applauds President Trump’s accurate climate claims: “Another reasonable response. For reasons having nothing to do with humans, ice-covered areas in Greenland endured 6,000 years of warming centering around 118,000 years ago that, in terms of integrated heating, was larger than anything humans can do to it. Yet it only lost about 30% of its ice. There were certainly more “huge chunks of ice just falling into the ocean raising sea levels” back then, with no human influence on climate.” # President Trump to 60 Minutes: “But it (climate change) could very well go back. You know, we’re talking about over a … millions of years.” Reality Check: Once again, President Trump is accurately citing Earth’s history. The climate has varied over billions of years, millions of years, hundreds of thousands of years, thousands of years, hundreds of years and decades. Ivy League geologist Robert Giegengack, former chairman of the Department of Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Pennsylvania, spoke out against fears of rising CO2 impacts promoted by Al Gore and others. Giegengack noted that “for most of Earth’s history, the globe has been warmer than it has been for the last 200 years. It has rarely been cooler.” He explained: “[Gore] claims that temperature increases solely because more CO2 in the atmosphere traps the sun’s heat. That’s just wrong … It’s a natural interplay. As temperature rises, CO2 rises, and vice versa. … It’s hard for us to say that CO2 drives temperature. It’s easier to say temperature drives CO2.” In 2014, Giegengack told Climate Depot: “The Earth has experienced very few periods when CO2 was lower than it is today.” Paper finds the Alps were nearly ice-free 2000 years ago during the Roman Warming Period New paper finds Norway glaciers much larger today than during Roman & Egyptian warming periods & Holocene climate optimum — Published in Quaternary Science Reviews Study: It was WARMER in Roman and Medieval times – ‘Previous estimates of historical temperatures during the Roman era and the Middle Ages were too low’ Don’t let history be rewritten! The facts about the 1970s global cooling ‘consensus’ # President Trump to 60 Minutes: “They say that we had hurricanes that were far worse than what we just had with Michael,” said Trump, who identified “they” as “people” after being pressed by “60 Minutes” correspondent Leslie Stahl. Reality Check: Bravo, President Trump. The “they” that President Trump is referring to even include the UN IPCC reports! See: UN IPCC Report Admits Extreme Weather Events Have Not Increased Meteorologist Joe Bastardi explains Hurricane Michael: ‘This is not climate change’ Extreme Weather Expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.: Category 4+ land-falling hurricanes have decreased over 70% since 1970 Blaming bad weather/hurricanes on Trump and/or ‘global warming’ is a throwback to medieval witchcraft – Book Excerpt Analysis: Many of Hurricane Michael’s ‘record-breaking’ claims don’t stand up to scrutiny Sen Schumer goes full witchcraft: ‘If We Would Do More on Climate Change, We’d Have Fewer of These Hurricanes’ – Schumer claims: Human Beings Could Reduce Frequency of Hurricanes Meteorologist Joe Bastardi explains Hurricane Michael: ‘This is not climate change’ Book counters media hype on 1 in 100-year and beyond weather events: ‘It is perfectly normal to have a 1 in 100-year event every year’ Update: Climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels applauds President Trump’s accurate climate claims: “Trump’s comment is also is consistent with what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) said in its September 20 statement titled “Global Warming and Hurricanes”: “In the Atlantic, it is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on hurricane activity.” # President Trump to 60 Minutes: Stahl asked Trump, “What about the scientists who say it’s worse than ever?” the president replied, “You’d have to show me the scientists because they have a very big political agenda.” Reality Check: Yes! Once again, President Trump is correct.  ‘Global warming’ fears are predicated on “a very big political agenda” and that agenda is pushed hard by the activist scientists. See: Update: Climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels applauds President Trump’s accurate climate claims: “Al Gore may have been on to something in his comments on the recent UN report claiming temperature increases of a mere 0.6°C will be catastrophic. He said it was “torqued up a little bit, appropriately – how [else] do they get the attention of policy-makers around the world”[?]. Hmmm. Seems like a political agenda.” Media touts UN IPCC as World’s Top Scientists — But who are they? Answer: Activists German Climate Scientist Accuses IPCC Of Alarmism: Calls climate fears ‘fictional’ UN: Humans given only 12 more years to make ‘unprecedented changes in all aspects of society’ Warmist Eric Holthaus: New IPCC report calls for ‘rigorous backing to systematically dismantle capitalism’ UN scientist claims Trump ‘poses the single greatest threat’ to Earth’s climate UN IPCC is ‘a purely political body posing as a scientific institution’ – The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change – Book excerpt ‘Same old, same old’ –  Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry on New UN IPCC report – ‘The IPCC still has not made a strong case for this massive investment to prevent 1.5C warming’ Former Harvard U. Physicist rejects new UN IPCC report: ‘I am no longer reading this garbage’ – ‘Similar claims are on par with the spam about penis enlargement’ New UN IPCC report warns of yet another tipping point! Give UN trillions or we die! Trump ‘poses the single greatest threat’ to climate The following is an excerpt from the new 2018 best-selling book, The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change. Prof. John Brignell: “The creation of the UN IPCC was a cataclysmic event in the history of science. Here was a purely political body posing as a scientific institution. Through the power of patronage, it rapidly attracted acolytes. ‘Peer review’ soon rapidly evolved from the old style refereeing to a much more sinister imposition of The Censorship.” Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning environmental physical chemist from Japan, is another UN IPCC scientist who has turned his back on the UN climate panel. Kiminori declared that global warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history….When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” UN IPCC chief Rajendra Pachauri admitted the IPCC is an arm of world governments and serves at their “beck and call.” “We are an intergovernmental body and we do what the governments of the world want us to do,” Pachauri told the Guardian in 2013. In 2012, a year before the report came out, former UN climate chief Yvo de Boer announced that the next IPCC report “is going to scare the wits out of everyone.” He added, “I’m confident those scientific findings will create new political momentum.” # UN IPCC is ‘a purely political body posing as a scientific institution’ Climate Depot reports on UN IPCC report here, here & here:  Statement by Marc Morano, publisher of Climate Depot and author of the 2018 new book: “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change.” – Morano: “The UN claims they were struggling with how bad to convey the allegedly ‘grim’ news about climate change. But what the media is not telling the public is these UN climate reports are self-serving reports that have predetermined outcomes. The UN hypes the climate ‘problem’ then puts itself in charge of the ‘solution.’ And the mainstream media goes along with such unmitigated nonsense. The UN even leaks their true motivation with these reports, calling for “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society.  My new book details the many UN scientists who have resigned and turned against the UN. The UN IPCC has admitted these “solutions’ they are advocating for have nothing to do with science. Scientists are not impressed with this latest UN attempt this week to re-engineer every aspect of human life. The Associated Press’ Seth Borenstein has attempted to bolster the scientific credentials of the UN IPCC, Borenstein wrote on October 7: “The Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its gloomy report at a meeting in Incheon, South Korea.” But what Borenstein leaves out is that the UN IPCC won the Nobel PEACE Prize for political activism, not a Nobel scientific award. And there is a good reason why the UN IPCC won’t be winning any Nobel prizes for science. See below. The UN IPCC is at it again and the media is drooling over the alarm. See: UN issues yet another climate tipping point – Humans given only 12 more years to make ‘unprecedented changes in all aspects of society’ – But as the new book, “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change”, reveals, climate tipping points have a long history of repetition, moved deadlines and utter failure. The book documents that the earliest climate “tipping point” was issued in 1864 by MIT professor who warned of “climatic excess” unless humans changed their ways. UN scientist claims Trump ‘poses the single greatest threat’ to Earth’s climate – A former UN lead author of the United Nations climate reports, Dr. Michael Mann, has ramped up the stakes of the new “dire” UN climate change report by claiming the “latest [UN] report underscores the danger that [President] Donald Trump poses to the planet.” The UN report “makes clear we need to reduce emissions dramatically, vastly exceeding our Paris targets. Yet Trump probably poses the single greatest threat to meeting those targets,” Mann, a Penn State professor, told ThinkProgress on October 8.   UN IPCC is ‘a purely political body posing as a scientific institution’ – Book excerpt   Book reveals UN’s goal of ‘2 degree’ limit of ‘global warming’ has no scientific basis – ‘Pulled out of thin air’ Climate Bombshell: Global Warming Scare Is Based on ‘Careless and Amateur’ Data, Finds Audit of UN IPCC   UN report on ‘global warming’ carries life-or-death warning   Warmist Eric Holthaus: New IPCC report calls for ‘rigorous backing to systematically dismantle capitalism’   ‘Same old, same old’ –  Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry on New UN IPCC report – ‘The IPCC still has not made a strong case for this massive investment to prevent 1.5C warming’   A $240 Per Gallon Gas Tax To Fight Global Warming? New UN Report Suggests Carbon Pricing   LIMITING GLOBAL WARMING COULD COST $122 TRILLION. THAT’S ‘NOT FEASIBLE,’ SAYS ONE ECONOMIST   Warmist Eric Holthaus: New IPCC report calls for ‘rigorous backing to systematically dismantle capitalism’   # UN issues yet another climate tipping point – Humans given only 12 more years to make ‘unprecedented changes in all aspects of society’ The new book, “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change”, reveals, climate tipping points have a long history of repetition, moved deadlines and utter failure. The book documents that the earliest climate “tipping point” was issued in 1864 by MIT professor who warned of “climatic excess” unless humans changed their ways. Book excerpt:  Editor’s Note: The following is an excerpt from author Marc Morano’s new 2018 best-selling book, The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change. The section below is excerpted from  CHAPTER 13: “The Ever-Receding Tipping Point”:  (Move over Rachel Carson! – Morano’s Politically Incorrect Climate Book outselling ‘Silent Spring’ at Earth Day – Order Your Book Copy Now! ‘The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change’ By Marc Morano) Book Excerpt – Bonus Chapter: Have We Advanced since the Middle Ages? CHAPTER 13 The Ever-Receding Tipping Point – Page 215 Deadlines Come and Go – Page 217 The Last Chance – Page 220 “Serially Doomed” – Page 222 1864 Tipping Point Warns of “Climatic Excess” “As early as 1864 George Perkins Marsh, sometimes said to be the father of American ecology, warned that the earth was ‘fast becoming an unfit home for its “noblest inhabitant,”’ and that unless men changed their ways it would be reduced ‘to such a condition of impoverished productiveness, of shattered surface, of climatic excess, as to threaten the deprivation, barbarism, and perhaps even extinction of the species.’” —MIT professor Leo Marx The climate change scare campaign has always relied on arbitrary deadlines, dates by which we must act before it’s too late. Global warming advocates have drawn many lines in the sand, claiming that we must act to solve global warming—or else. “We are running out of time. We have to get an ambitious global agreement,” warned then–UN climate chief Christiana Figueres at the 2014 People’s Climate March. “This is a huge crisis.” At the UN climate summit in Copenhagen in 2009, Al Gore sought UN climate agreement—immediately. “We have to do it this year. Not next year, this year,” he demanded. “And of course the clock is ticking because Mother Nature does not do bailouts.” Gore has warned repeatedly of the coming tipping point. Climate change “can cross a tipping point and suddenly shift into high gear,” the former vice president claimed in 2006. Laurie David, the producer of Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth, said in 2007 that “we have to have action we have to do something right now to stop global warming.” Prince Charles has also warned that time is running out. “We should compare the planet under threat of climate change to a sick patient,” urged the heir to the British throne. “I fear there is not a moment to lose.” “The clock is ticking. . . . Scientists believe that we have ten years to bring emissions under control to prevent a catastrophe,” reported ABC News. But these “tipping points” and “last chance” claims now have a long history. The United Nations alone has spent more than a quarter of a century announcing a series of ever-shifting deadlines by which the world must act or face disaster from anthropogenic climate change. Deadlines Come and Go Recently, in 2014, the United Nations declared a climate “tipping point” by which the world must act to avoid dangerous global warming. “The world now has a rough deadline for action on climate change. Nations need to take aggressive action in the next 15 years to cut carbon emissions, in order to forestall the worst effects of global warming, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” reported the Boston Globe. But way back in 1982, the UN had announced a two-decade tipping point for action on environmental issues. Mostafa Tolba, executive director of the UN Environment Program (UNEP), warned on May 11, 1982, that the “world faces an ecological disaster as final as nuclear war within a couple of decades unless governments act now.” According to Tolba, lack of action would bring “by the turn of the century, an environmental catastrophe which will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible as any nuclear holocaust.” In 1989, the UN was still trying to sell that “tipping point” to the public. According to a July 5, 1989, article in the San Jose Mercury News, Noel Brown, the then-director of the New York office of UNEP was warning of a “10-year window of opportunity to solve” global warming. According to the Herald, “A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ‘eco-refugees,’ threatening political chaos.” But in 2007, seven years after that supposed tipping point had come and gone, Rajendra Pachauri, then the chief of the UN IPPC, declared 2012 the climate deadline by which it was imperative to act: “If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.” UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon announced his own deadline in August 2009, when he warned of “incalculable” suffering without a UN climate deal in December 2009. And in 2012, the UN gave Planet Earth another four-year reprieve. UN Foundation president and former U.S. Senator Tim Wirth called Obama’s re-election the “last window of opportunity” to get it right on climate change. Heir to the British throne Prince Charles originally announced in March 2009 that we had “less than 100 months to alter our behavior before we risk catastrophic climate change.” As he said during a speech in Brazil, “We may yet be able to prevail and thereby to avoid bequeathing a poisoned chalice to our children and grandchildren. But we only have 100 months to act.” To his credit, Charles stuck to this rigid timetable—at least initially. Four months later, in July 2009, he declared a ninety-six-month tipping point. At that time the media dutifully reported that “the heir to the throne told an audience of industrialists and environmentalists at St James’s Palace last night that he had calculated that we have just 96 months left to save the world. And in a searing indictment on capitalist society, Charles said we can no longer afford consumerism and that the ‘age of convenience’ was over.” At the UN climate summit in Copenhagen in 2009, Charles was still keeping at it: “The grim reality is that our planet has reached a point of crisis and we have only seven years before we lose the levers of control.” As the time expired, the Prince of Wales said in 2010, “Ladies and gentlemen we only—we now have only 86 months left before we reach the tipping point.” By 2014, a clearly exhausted Prince Charles seemed to abandon the countdown, announcing, “We are running out of time. How many times have I found myself saying this over recent years?” In the summer of 2017, Prince Charles’s one-hundred-month tipping point finally expired.26 What did Charles have to say? Was he giving up? Did he proclaim the end times for the planet? Far from it. Two years earlier, in 2015, Prince Charles abandoned his hundred-month countdown and gave the world a reprieve by extending his climate tipping point another thirty-five years, to the year 2050! A July 2015 interview in the Western Morning News revealed that “His Royal Highness warns that we have just 35 years to save the planet from catastrophic climate change.” So instead of facing the expiration of his tipping point head on, the sixty-nine-year-old Charles kicked the climate doomsday deadline down the road until 2050 when he would be turning the ripe age of 102. (Given the Royal Family’s longevity, it is possible he may still be alive for his new extended deadline.) Former Irish President Mary Robinson issued a twenty-year tipping point in 2015, claiming that global leaders have “at most two decades to save the world.” Al Gore announced his own ten-year climate tipping point in 2006 and again in 2008, warning that “the leading experts predict that we have less than 10 years to make dramatic changes in our global warming pollution lest we lose our ability to ever recover from this environmental crisis.” In 2014, with “only two years left” before Gore’s original deadline, the climatologist Roy Spencer mocked the former vice president, saying “in the grand tradition of prophets of doom, Gore’s prognostication is not shaping up too well.” Penn State Professor Michael Mann weighed in with a 2036 deadline. “There is an urgency to acting unlike anything we’ve seen before,” Mann explained. Media outlets reported Mann’s made a huge media splash with his prediction, noting “Global Warming Will Cross a Dangerous Threshold in 2036.” Other global warming activists chose 2047 as their deadline, while twenty governments from around the globe chose 2030 as theirs, with Reuters reporting that millions would die by 2030 if world failed to act on climate: “More than 100 million people will die and global economic growth will be cut by 3.2% of GDP by 2030 if the world fails to tackle climate change, a report commissioned by 20 governments said on Wednesday. As global avg. temps rise due to ghg emissions, the effects on planet, such as melting ice caps, extreme weather, drought and rising sea levels, will threaten populations and livelihoods, said the report conducted by the humanitarian organization DARA.” As we saw in chapter five, top UK scientist Sir David King warned in 2004 that that by 2100 Antarctica could be the only habitable continent. Tipping point rhetoric seems to have exploded beginning in 2002. An analysis by Reason magazine’s Ron Bailey found that tipping points in environmental rhetoric increased dramatically in that year. The Last Chance Michael Mann warned that the 2015 UN Paris summit “is probably the last chance” to address climate change.38 But the reality is that every UN climate summit is hailed as the last opportunity to stop global warming. ★★★★★ New Lyrics to an Old Tune Newsweek magazine weighed in with its own tipping point: “The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.” That warning appeared in April 28, 1975, article about global cooling! Same rhetoric, different eco-scare. ★★★★★ Here, courtesy of the great research published at Climate Change Predictions is a sampling of previous “last chance” deadlines that turned out to be—well—not the last chance after all. Bonn, 2001: “A Global Warming Treaty’s Last Chance” —Time magazine, July 16, 2001 Montreal, 2005: “Climate campaigner Mark Lynas warned ‘with time running out for the global climate, your meeting in Montreal represents the last chance for action.’” —Independent, November 28, 2005 Bali, 2007: “World leaders will converge on Bali today for the start of negotiations which experts say could be the last chance to save the Earth from catastrophic climate change.” —New Zealand Herald, December 3, 2007. Poznan, Poland, 2008: “Australian environmental scientist Tim Flannery warned, ‘This round of negotiations is likely to be our last chance as a species to deal with the problem.’” —Age, December 9, 2008 Copenhagen, 2009: “European Union Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas told a climate conference that it was ‘the world’s last chance to stop climate change before it passes the point of no return.’” —Reuters, February 27, 2009 Cancun, 2010: “Jairem Ramesh, the Indian environment minister, sees it as the ‘last chance’ for climate change talks to succeed.” —Telegraph, November 29, 2010 Durban, 2011: “Durban climate change meeting is “the last chance.” Attended by over 200 countries, this week’s major UN conference has been described by many experts as humanity’s last chance to avert the disastrous effects of climate change.” —UCA News, November 28, 201140 # “Serially Doomed” Perhaps the best summary of the tipping-point phenomenon comes from UK scientist Philip Stott. “In essence, the Earth has been given a 10-year survival warning regularly for the last fifty or so years. We have been serially doomed,” Stott explained. “Our post-modern period of climate change angst can probably be traced back to the late-1960s, if not earlier. By 1973, and the ‘global cooling’ scare, it was in full swing, with predictions of the imminent collapse of the world within ten to twenty years, exacerbated by the impacts of a nuclear winter. Environmentalists were warning that, by the year 2000, the population of the US would have fallen to only 22 million. In 1987, the scare abruptly changed to ‘global warming’, and the IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was established (1988), issuing its first assessment report in 1990, which served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). # # UN IPCC is ‘a purely political body posing as a scientific institution’ – Book excerpt The new book, “The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change”, reveals, that the UN IPCC is not a scientific body.  The book documents how the UN climate “sausage” is made and it’s not pretty. Book excerpt:  Editor’s Note: The following is an excerpt from author Marc Morano’s new 2018 best-selling book, The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change. The section below is excerpted from CHAPTER 3: “Pulled from Thin Air”:The 97 Percent “Consensus” & CHAPTER 10: Climategate: The UN IPCC Exposed (Move over Rachel Carson! – Morano’s Politically Incorrect Climate Book outselling ‘Silent Spring’ at Earth Day – Order Your Book Copy Now! ‘The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change’ By Marc Morano) Book Excerpt –  CHAPTER 3: “Pulled from Thin Air”: The 97 Percent “Consensus”  

Scientists Call Prof. Schellnhuber’s Claim Man Is Preventing Next Ice Age ‘Huge Nonsense’

Some Scientists Call Prof. Schellnhuber’s Claim Man Is Preventing Next Ice Age “Huge Nonsense” http://notrickszone.com/2018/09/29/some-scientists-call-prof-schellnhubers-claim-man-is-preventing-next-ice-age-huge-nonsense/ Some Scientists Call Prof. Schellnhuber’s Claim Man Is Preventing Next Ice Age “Huge Nonsense” by P Gosselin / Sep 29, 2018 In an interview with the online German Augsburger Allgemeine (AA), former director of the the alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, made some claims that have raised some eyebrows. Image right: Prof Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, Source: PIK What follows is a commentary from two German scientists: ======================================= By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated/edited by P Gosselin) Huge nonsense in the German Augsburger Allgemeinen on August 19, 2018: Climate scientist Schellnhuber: “There will never be another ice age” […] AA: Two weeks ago, an international study was published in which you too were involved. There was talk of a hot period. Sounds dramatic… Schellnhuber: And it is. On Earth, ice ages and warm periods have alternated for millions of years. We have shown in studies that the industrial society, with its historic greenhouse gas emissions, has already interrupted this cycle and there will probably never be another ice age. So my colleagues and I brought up the question: Can our climate system be stabilized in the currently prevailing warm period state, or are we putting planetary processes in motion that are driving us into a hot period? The difference is, roughly speaking, the continued existence of civilization as we know it. With a long-term increase in temperature of five or six degrees and a sea level of around 60 meters, it will not be possible maintain it.” Schellnhuber confuses CO2 cycles with ice age cycles Professor Schellnhuber is a real joker. Glacials and interglacials occur on timescales of tens of thousands of years. However, the duration of CO2 staying time in the atmosphere is only 100 years. After a few hundred years at the latest, the CO2 would return to pre-industrial levels. Hasn’t anyone ever made this clear to Prof. Schellnhuber? Since nobody will ever experience the scenario, he can go on making outlandish claims about the far off future. Also for a good laugh, read our post: 2istays in the atmosphere for 100 years” More on Schellnhuber: “Peer review system in need of an overhaul: Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber chooses his own reviewers“

“Climate Denial” Funded By Big Oil, Heartland Institute, CFACT German ARD Public Television Wants To Believe

“Climate Denial” Funded By Big Oil, Heartland Institute, CFACT German ARD Public Television Wants To Believe http://notrickszone.com/2018/08/28/climate-denial-funded-by-big-oil-heartland-institute-cfact-german-ard-wants-to-believe/ “Climate Denial” Funded By Big Oil, Heartland Institute, CFACT German ARD Public Television Wants To Believe by P Gosselin / Yesterday, 06:35 German ARD public television wishes to believe climate skepticism in the country is fueled by American Big Oil dollars. The reality is that German skepticism is a far broader phenomenon. I didn’t become aware of this recent German ARD Monitor investigative report until yesterday. The ARD Monitor public television report, aired earlier this month in the wake of Europe’s hot and dry summer, looks into the German climate denial movement, and pretends to have uncovered that it is shadowy and all clandestinely fueled by the American gas and oil industry. One hot German summer is climate change! First the report begins by focusing on the “amazingly crazy” hot and dry summer Germany just experienced, as if to say how could anyone possibly deny this is not climate change. And to drive the point home to viewers that climate change is real and extreme, ARD Monitor interviews “one of the most renowned climate scientists of our time, Professor Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research”, who comments that the planet is on the way to becoming uninhabitable unless we stop using fossil fuels immediately. Bjorn Stevens: Having to debate the facts “is enraging” To add more gravitas to the claim that man-made climate change is real and the debate is over, Monitor also interviews “renowned climate researcher” Prof. Bjorn Stevens of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, who tells Monitor: That we have to debate the facts to me is enraging, or disappointing in any case because there’s no question about it. There are many questions, but that CO2 is heating the climate is not one of them.” ARD Monitor set up: Anyone disagreeing simply has to be some sort of a misfit. So where’s could all the climate skepticism be coming from? Monitor uncovers nothing new, only rehashes old stories So with the two distinguished scientists saying the science is settled, the ARD Monitor report next moves on to finding out where all the “denial” in Germany is coming from. The answer: from the Jena, Germany-based European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), funded by the freedom-obsessed Heartland Institute and CFACT. These two organization are supposedly funneling money from Big Oil and a hedge fund millionaire named Robert Mercer. Big Oil money According to Monitor, the Mercer Foundation has funded the Heartland Institute to the tune of “millions of dollars” over the years. Another big provider of funding is the ExxonMobil Foundation, which according to the German documentary supplied funding to the Heartland Institute and other organizations, among them CFACT, as shown by filed Form 990-PF documents (5:50 mark): Documents presented by ARD Monitor, however, show donations were made more than 10 years ago, in 2005. Oreskes produces no evidence of funding 2005? That’s pretty long ago. Surely there has to be more funding after that, ARD Monitor tells the audience, and so brings in climate activist Naomi Oreskes (6:05), “an expert on the climate skepticism scene” to provide the proof”. Climate activist Prof. Naomi Oreskes on German ARD Monitor. Image cropped from ARD Monitor. Oreskes tells ARD Monitor (translated from the German): In terms of funding, it’s really hard to make statements on this because many of the organizations have taken steps to hide the channels. But we have clear evidence that organizations like CFACT and The Heartland Institute are being massively funded by the oil, gas and coal industry, and from other industries, especially chemicals and pesticides.” However, none of that “clear evidence” gets shown by Oreskes, yet with her seal of approval, it’s good enough for ARD Monitor to present it as established fact. Big Oil’s trail to Germany? ARD Monitor next reports how the Big Oil money trail leads to Germany to fund skepticism: through The Heartland Institute and CFACT and ending up at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), which this blog here occasionally links to. Shown by ARD Monitor are images of an EIKE climate conference with the Heartland Institute and CFACT logos in the background. The conferences take place annually and anyone can visit them and so it has never been a secret that the organizations are linked, yet ARD Monitor tries to appear as if they’ve succeeded in exposing something big and shadowy, when in fact it has always been out in the open for years. EIKE is in fact glad for every media outlet that shows up to the conferences it sponsors. EIKE spokesman’s strange denial So it’s all the more mysterious that EIKE spokesman physicist Prof. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke denied knowing CFACT and The Heartland Institute before an ARD Monitor camera. For whatever misguided reason, Lüdecke tried to deny the very obvious EIKE link to CFACT and Heartland, although it’s no secret at all. That was a huge gaffe by EIKE and so the organization ended up looking suspicious to German viewers. I contacted EIKE to inquire why spokesman Lüdecke would say such a thing. EIKE blamed it on “confusion.” German skepticism movement far more than EIKE Monitor’s one-sided hit piece was designed to make German climate skepticism appear as if it were something entirely funded by American Big Oil and gas, when in reality this is not the case at all. Rather, German climate skepticism is much more a growing grass roots movement and ARD Monitor totally overstates EIKE’s role in German climate skepticism and totally ignores the array of other powerful forces casting doubt on the science in Germany. Critical scientists, journalists The reality is that a large part of climate skepticism spreading in Germany arises from a number of other sources, like books and blog posts by luke-warmists Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning, from publicists such as Dirk Maxieiner, and Michael Miersch, achgut.com, critical journalists like Daniel Wetzel of Die Weltor warmist journalist Axel Bojanowski of Spiegel. There are others in Switzerland and across Europe. Spiegel’s Bojanowski has repeatedly criticized the highly exaggerated and often hysterical climate claims often heard from Germany’s institutes and media. These cooler heads have warned that all the hysterical claims are hurting efforts to deal with climate much more than they are helping. Media have lost credibility More skepticism in Germany also arises from meteorology experts who on social media platforms often feel compelled to publicly point out and correct the often outlandish climate and weather claims that get communicated to the public. All the horribly exaggerated communication by the scientists, politicians and media have led to a significant credibility loss. And when the media deceive and tell half truths on other issues, people tend not to believe anything they are told. Media have gotten so poor in Germany that the joke today is that the only news one can trust from the major networks are the weather forecast and the lottery numbers. At ARD television, the news are said not to begin at 8:00 pm, rather at 8:13 pm (lottery numbers and weather report). Hundreds of citizens’ groups against wind power Moreover, there’s growing resistance from the more than 1000 citizens’ initiatives opposing the wind energy industrialization of Germany’s landscape and forests. These concerned citizens have banded together and increasingly view climate protection as forest and natural habitat destruction. So it’s only natural for these concerned people to become more open to climate science criticism. Broken promises Also a number of leading engineers and industrial experts and trade associations have been warning for years that a power grid relying heavily on volatile wind and sun would never be able to meet Germany’s energy needs. The Energiewende (transition to renewable energies) was sold to the public some 20 years ago as something that would make energy cleaner, cheaper and better. The reality, however, has turned out to be very different. Little wonder so many are growing skeptical.

33 skeptical scientists rebel against the ‘unscientific tone’ of UK Geological Society ‘outdated and one-sided’ climate claims – Sign open letter

https://www.thegwpf.com/an-open-letter-to-the-geological-society/ Howard Dewhirst FGS et al. Back in 2010, 43 fellows of the Royal Society wrote to its then president, Paul Nurse, to complain about the unscientific tone of the society’s messages on climate change. A few days ago, a group of 33 current and former fellows of the Geological Society wrote an open letter to their president in similar vein. The text is reproduced below. The President Geological Society of London Dear President We are writing as a group of concerned primarily geoscientists, half of whom are or were Fellows, (names and affiliations listed below). Our concern is that the Society’s position on Climate Change (aka Anthropogenic Global Warming or AGW), is outdated and one-sided, and is distracting attention and funding from real issues of pollution such as plastic and other noxious industrial and domestic waste. To address this, we proposed to Colin Summerhayes that the 2010 and 2013 GSL Position Papers be posted on the Energy Matters blog, so that all sides of the discussion could be aired; and we are very grateful to Colin for effecting and taking part in this (http://euanmearns.com/the-geological-society-of-londons-statement-on-climate-change/). In addition, Colin continues to engage in an open and spirited email correspondence with some of us on the pros and cons of AGW. The GSL position papers state they have been prepared ‘based on analysis of geological evidence, and not on analysis of recent temperature or satellite data, or climate model projections.’ And certainly, a key finding, ‘the only plausible explanation for the rate and extent of temperature increase since 1900, is the exponential rise in CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution’, is not in line with the IPCC claim (in AR5 SPM), that ‘Anthropogenic influences have likely affected the global water cycle since 1960’, and that ‘more than half’ of the warming since 1951 is due to AGW. The IPCC also claim that ‘Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since the pre-industrial era (variously claimed to be between 1750-1880) have driven large increases in the atmospheric concentrations of … CO2’, which nobody seriously denies, but they do not claim that this resulted in warming before 1951/60, as the GSL appears to. The IPCC position matches observations that almost half of the warming that has occurred over the last 150 or so years since industrialisation, had already happened by 1943, well before the rapid rise of industrial CO2. This difference of opinion is critical, for if CO2 did not cause the pre-1943 warming, the claimed consensus that Catastrophic AGW is caused by human CO2 emissions since the Industrial Revolution, which is supported by GSL, must be mistaken. While there remain other areas of disagreement over the science of Global Warming and Climate Change (which are not the same thing), we can probably all agree that the 2010 position paper and the 2013 addendum need updating. And as this update will be critical in deciding future climate policy world-wide, we propose that any updated paper should come from a full and open discussion of the science, and not just from the ideas of a small group however well qualified. We suggest that such a process could be achieved by adopting methods of review used by other professional societies, particularly the APS, AAPG, and APPEA copies of which are attached. We also believe the GSL has a responsibility to refute the exaggerated claims that swirl around the fringes of the Climate Change debate, undermining the real science – such as that CO2 and Climate Change cause: more hurricanes, more rain, more drought, more asthma and now, even more terrorism (through drought in Africa), the exceptional cold and warm recorded over most of the sub-Arctic, Northern Hemisphere during the past winter and spring are what we should ‘expect’ from Global Warming. As this letter makes clear, it is not true that 97% of scientists unreservedly accept that AGW theory is fixed, or that carbon and CO2 are ‘pollutants’ and their production should be penalised; how can the primary nutrient in photosynthesis be a pollutant? We also note that 700 scientists have made submissions to the US Senate expressing dissent from the consensus and 166 climate scientists issued a challenge to Ban Ki Moon on the eve of the Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009 to provide proof of human induced global warming, which he did not do. Even once respectable journals like the New Scientist, still uncritically peddle such social media nonsense as the infamous Hockey Stick, that seems to have lost the otherwise well documented Medieval Warm period. ‘Global Warming’ is on everyone’s lips with each month/year claimed to be the ‘hottest ever’ – based on IPCC’s ‘adjusted’ land and marine temperature data; however, the ‘pause’ in average temperatures since the 1998 el Niño, as documented by almost all recent temperature data, suggests global warming is no longer happening. Both claims cannot be correct, and, by saying nothing about these differences, the Society is supporting rather than resolving them. By restricting the review to the geological evidence, independently of IPCC theory and modelling, the GSL signalled an independent scientific approach. But by excluding an evaluation of the modern climate record, the committee has failed to notice or account for these and other inconsistencies in AGW theory. The Energy Matters blog was a useful first step in focusing on these issues but, as it is not ‘peer reviewed’[i] in the way that scientific papers generally are, we suggest something more formal is needed, such as a 2-day conference to explore all sides of the issues raised, with a strong neutral moderator. Topics for such a dialogue could examine the evidence that CO2 alone as the principle driver of temperature, or climate. Climate Change is largely real, natural, and mostly beyond our control. Manipulation of climate data has been used to support ‘global warming’.[ii] Most climate alarms are little more than scaremongering. CO2 is mainly beneficial, NOT dangerous but blanket decarbonisation is. Industrial effluents and plastics, deforestation and overfishing are dangerous– and are being side-lined by the focus on CO2 emissions. The world’s climate system, as defined by the IPCC, [iii] is a ‘coupled non-linear chaotic system”, for which “the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible’. This is due to the impossibility of describing precisely the initial conditions, and to instability generated by the mathematics causing cumulative errors in the modelling process, which combine to make a ‘correct’ solution impossible. This alone should make the authors of the GSL statements cautious about their very confident acceptance that CO2 alone has driven temperature and climate since 1900.The IPCC AR documents address some of the uncertainties, and are generally much less biased than the SPMs (Summary for Policymakers) which get all the media attention, which is unfortunate, as it is apparent that they are largely written not by scientists but by an ‘assemblage of representatives from governments and NGOs, with only a small scientific representation.’[iv] Their heavy political bias not only undermines the scientific content, it supercharges the ‘overwhelming consensus for human induced climate change’ which is mindlessly promulgated by the media year in, year out. The façade of consensus, helped by the data adjustments promised in the Climategate emails, negates the ‘creative conflict between theory and data’ which is missing in this debate and which we suggest the GSL can revive. It is to be hoped that the frequent use of conditionals ‘may’ and ‘could’ in the current papers will be reduced, as a document that will affect government policy for years needs to be more specific about the levels of uncertainty in its pronouncements. We also note the difficulty of publishing anything that does not confirm the IPCC AGW position, again, as promised in Climategate emails; and also, the ‘ad hominem’ attacks rather than data refutation that too often characterises the debate, and we hope that this will not prevent the committee considering data that does not appear to support its position paper conclusions. We do not expect that all of our concerns will survive the test of time, and we assume GSL would similarly accept that new data may well change the ‘consensus’. Climate models fail to model past climates accurately and consistently overestimate future temperature trends, nor are they able to explain the following: The current hiatus or pause in warming. Why the 285 ppm of atmospheric CO2 estimated for the beginning of the Industrial Revolution is in any way, a desirable benchmark. It coincides with the Victorian Little Ice Age, a period of starvation and population decline, which cannot possibly be a desirable target, unless you want to depopulate the earth. Climate models always predict higher temperatures than actually occur The absence of the predicted tropospheric hotspot – the ‘fingerprint of AGW’. CO2 and temperature were higher than today during the previous 50 million years plus, with no CAGW effects, why not? The natural warming of 8°C and ~100ppm increase in CO2 during the Holocene up to the 1800s, and the subsequent 125 ppm increase in CO2 after 1950, accompanied by a miserly ~1°C temperature rise. The Holocene enigma of generally falling but fluctuating temperatures from ~3,000BP, accompanied by rising CO2that predates industrial CO2 emissions. How AGW theory relies on radiative transfer only to heat the planet, and seemingly ignores insolation, enthalpy and water vapour. The inability of the science of AGW to sharpen the range of estimates of climate sensitivity (currently between 1.5 oC and 6.4°C according to GSL) despite over 30 years of hugely funded effort; surely the science has failed? Earth System Sensitivity concept introduced by GSL, which ‘could be twice’ climate sensitivity’ noted above (2013 Addendum, page 4) Such rational failures have to be of concern to the GSL as they demonstrate that CO2 alone does not, nay cannot drive global warming, so how can it drive climate change? And if it does not, there is no reason for the uncritical acceptance of the UN/IPCC focus on penalising CO2 emissions? The discussions in the Energy Matters blog suggests that the GSL position papers do not ‘prove’ that average global temperatures are accurately measured or agreed, or that human CO2 driven ‘warming’ is real and/or dangerous, or that CO2 is effective in changing the climate beyond natural variability. The position papers would not have included the beneficial effects of CO2 in greening the planet, as this was not widely reported until July 2013 CSIRO study. However, the benefits that cheap reliable electricity can bring in preventing over 4 million annual deaths from indoor air pollution from burning bio and other solid fuels, has been obvious for some time. Even if CO2 did drive some warming, is it more dangerous to more people than this very real pollution faced daily by well over 200 million in the developing world? We fully support the Society’s involvement in the climate change debate but believe that the apparent failures of AGW theory noted herein, calls for a re-think. Climate is and always will change, but the evidence that this is due primarily to CO2, is not forthcoming. If the strong natural forcings that are so well described in the GSL papers have more impact than CO2, then we should be spending more of our limited resources on finding ways to adapt to negative climate change. We are aware that the board has duties to the Society, to the prestige of the science and to Fellows, in that order perhaps, but think any formal statement by the Society should at least acknowledge the views of dissenting Fellows. Climate Change (which is only ever portrayed, without any justification, as dangerous) has become the critical issue of our time and informed dissent, cannot be swept under the carpet or dismissed as ‘unscientific’ or ‘denialist’, as it too often is; ‘Rebellion is the deepest root of science; the refusal to accept the present order of things,’[v] but seemingly not anymore in Climate Studies. The GSL has taken a strong independent position; the Carbon Cycle is a genuine geological concern, but interpretation of the data is subject to increasing uncertainty as one goes back or forward in time, so firm conclusions based only on experimental data (the geological record) are likely to be unsound. As one of my correspondents puts it ‘The Society can make comments regarding the complexity of the physics and mathematics and inevitable uncertainty of predictions of nonlinear dynamical system behaviour etc., and there is nothing wrong with having a debate about this… But … their conclusions are unwarranted and unsound science if based on geological evidence alone.’ Science is supposed to use all the available tools at its disposal and by excluding the modern record it would be even more sound to avoid tacit support for the proposition that ‘the science is settled’. And even if everything the IPCC is frightened of looks inescapable, applying the precautionary principle by penalising carbon regardless has shut down debate creating more harm than benefit. Better by far to look at ways of mitigating possible effects until the evidence becomes firmer, one way or the other. The strength of the Society is that Fellowship is not just open to people who share a current ‘consensus’, what was once accepted has often fallen by the wayside as arguments are overturned; Murchison and Sedgwick, uniformitarianism and catastrophism, Piltdown Man. We would like to make a presentation of our findings to the board, as much of what is relevant can best be understood with reference to data. However, we have no wish to monopolise this discussion in any way, as we believe the issues need raising before as many interested parties as possible. And it is for this reason we are calling this an open letter and will circulate it through media channels after the forthcoming AGM. Yours sincerely Howard Dewhirst FGS, on behalf of the following: Active fellows: Geology unless stated Chris Atkinson Singapore BSc, PhD FGS, PESGB, SEAPEX Nigel Banks United Kingdom BA, DPhil FGS, AAPG, SPE, PESGB Dave Bodecott United Kingdom BSc, MSc FGS, AAPG, PESGB, IOD David Boote United Kingdom MSc, PhD FGS, AAPG, PESGB Bernard Cooper United Kingdom BSc FGS John Cope United Kingdom BSc, PhD, DSc, C. Geol FGS (Snr Fellow), GA Cameron Davies United Kingdom BSc, PhD, DIC FGS Howard Dewhirst United Kingdom BA, MA FGS, AAPG, SPE, PESGB, PESA Tim Harper United Kingdom BSc, PhD, MSc, DIC, C. Eng FGS, IOM3, Graham Heard United Kingdom BSc FGS, CGeol, PESGB, AAPG, PESA David Jenkins United Kingdom MA, PhD FGS, AAPG, Chris Matchette-Downes United Kingdom BSc, MSc, C. Geol FGS, PESGB James Moffatt South Africa MA FGS, GSA, AAPG, EAEG, PESGB Philip Mulholland United Kingdom BA, MSc FGS, AAPG, EAGE, PESGB Michael Oates United Kingdom BSc, PhD FGS, GA Ian Plimer Australia BSc, PhD FGS (Hon), FTSE, FAIMM Chris Pullan United Kingdom BSc FGS, PESGB Michael Ridd United Kingdom BSc, PhD FGS Michael Seymour United Kingdom MA, MSc, DIC FGS, PESGB (former Chair) Richard Stabbins United Kingdom BSc, PhD, C. Geol FGS (Snr Fellow), PESGB (Hon Mbr) Barry Squire United Kingdom BSc, PhD FGS David Warwick United Kingdom BSc FGS, PESGB Alastair Woodrow United Kingdom BSc (Physics) FGS, EAGE, EI, PESGB Wyss Yim Hong Kong China DSc, PhD, DIC FGS Enzo Zappaterra United Kingdom PhD, C. Pet Geol FGS, AAPG, PESGB Former fellows: David Bowen United Kingdom BSc, PhD FGS (former); Life Fellow INQUA Frank Brophy Australia Gary Couples United Kingdom BS, MA, PhD FGS (former), SPE, AGU, AAPG Trish Dewhirst Australia BSc, B. Ecom FGS, AusIMM, PESGB (all former) Henry John Dodwell United Kingdom BSc, MSc FGS (former), currently PESGB Martin Keeley United Kingdom BSc, PhD FGS (former), Dennis Paterson United Kingdom BSc, MSc, DIC FGS, AAPG, PESGB (all former) William J Pyke United Kingdom BS, MSc, MA FGS (former), Concerned colleagues: Nils-Axel Morner Sweden PhD P&G, ICG Tim Ball Canada BA, MA, PhD Dave Bratton USA Na Na Doug Buerger Australia BSc, MPhil Aus IMM, MAICD John Conolly Australia BSc, MSc, PhD AAPG, PESA Isabel Davies United Kingdom BSc, MSc, DIC PESGB Paul Dostal Australia BE MIE Aust (former) Philip Foster United Kingdom MA SMP Ashley Francis United Kingdom BSc FRAS, EAGE, SEG, PESGB, IAMG, BSSS, MI Soil Sci Andrew Gillies Australia BSc Aus IMM Peter Gill United Kingdom BSc (Physics) FEI, Inst P, CEng, C Phys, Eur. Ing John Graham United Kingdom BA EAGE, SEG retired Tom Harris Canada B Eng, M Eng, ICSC Bruce Harvey Australia BSc, MBA Aus IMM Michael Haseler United Kingdom BSc (Physics), MBA na Robert Heath United Kingdom BSc (Physics) SPG India (EAGE, SEG & PESGB, all former) Yvon Houde Canada AAPG, SEG, SPE, HGS, CSPG Richard Karn Australia BA, MA na Pamela Klein Portugal BSc MSc ICG, Richard Lindzen USA PhD MIT, Mbr US NAS Sebastian Luening Germany Dr habil AGU Andy May USA BSc AAPG, SPE, SPWLA Peter McCarthy Australia BSc, M. Geosc AusIMM, MAICD Robert Merrill USA PhD AAPG, SPE, GSA Paul Messenger Australia BSc, PhD Aus IMM (former), GSA (former) Steve Munro New Zealand BSc, Post-Grad Dipl, MBA ASEG Thomas E O’Connor USA BS, MS AAPG, Houston Geo. Soc Alex Pope USA BS NASA retired Gordon P Riddler United Kingdom BSc, MBA CEng, FIMMM Bill Trojan USA BS, MS AAPG, Westminster College SLC Utah Mark Wharton United Kingdom na na Subsequent signatories: Viv Forbes Australia BSc AusIMM Peter B Gibbs United Kingdom BSc FGS, PESGB Roger Higgs United Kingdom BSc, MSc, DPhil AAPG, (FGS, PESGB, GSA, SEPM former) Simon Kendall United Kingdom BSc, MSc FGS (former) Carlos Venturini United Kingdom BSc, MSc, PG Dipl FGS, PESGB Links: APS: American Physical Society: https://www.aps.org/policy/statements/upload/climate-review-framing.pdfhttps://www.aps.org/policy/statements/climate/index.cfm AAPG: http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/gerhard/index.htm AIChE: https://www.aiche.org/resources/publications/cep/2017/july/che-context-members-will-shape-aiches-climate-change-policy APPEA: https://www.appea.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Climate-Change-Policy-Principles-APPEA-final.pdf SPE: http://webevents.spe.org/webinar/13400 CAPP: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers; https://www.capp.ca/responsible-development/air-and-climate/climate-change Climate Change Tutorial; District Court of California, 10/3/2018. http://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Happer-Koonin-Lindzen.pdf GWPF: https://www.thegwpf.org/state-of-the-climate-report-reveals-23-year-temperature-pause-in-the-stratosphere/ Letter to Scott Pruitt EPA: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/06-07-18%20EPA%20Pruitt%20NIPCC%20Submission.pd.pdf Selected Blogs: http://euanmearns.com/the-geological-society-of-londons-statement-on-climate-change/ https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2018/03/State-of-the-Climate2017.pdf https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/01/17/the-geological-society-of-londons-statement-on-climate-change/ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/01/30/what-are-in-fact-the-grounds-for-concern-about-global-warming/comment-page-1/#comment-2730698 Covering email sent to GSL President 1st June 2018 Dear President, Attached is an open letter to yourself as President of the Geological Society of London, together a series of referenced attachments. The letter is written in the spirit of scientific enquiry, not political correctness and has been prepared on behalf of a group of colleagues, whose names are included in the letter, to raise the possibility of a new edition of the GSL’s position papers on climate change. We wish to raise awareness of the seriousness of our concern by making this an open letter, and plan to issue it to the media after the Society has had an opportunity to consider it. We do this not to pressure the Society in any way, but because, as we note in the letter, a new GSL position paper ‘will be critical in deciding future climate policy world-wide’, hence ‘any updated paper should come from a full and open discussion of the science, and not just from the ideas of a small group’. We are particularly impressed by the thoroughness of the American Physical Society Climate Change Statement Review Workshop Framing Document and the Climate Change Statement Review Subcommittee, 20 December 2013, copies of which we attach, together with examples from other societies and other relevant publications which we hope you will find useful in any approach a review. The issue of Climate Change is too important for it to be the preserve of a small group of Fellows, no matter how well intentioned and qualified. Despite what you might read in the media, and as this letter shows, 97% of scientists do not accept the IPCC Theory of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming and we don’t believe the GSL should do so quite as unquestioningly as they have done heretofor. We have no special agenda but to seek the truth lost in what has become a hugely political issue, where open dialogue has become almost impossible. We are sure this is something the GSL would be concerned with and would want to take a lead in restoring the balance. Yours Sincerely Howard Dewhirst [i] Peer reviewing is only of value if the reviewers are without bias, which is increasingly rare in politicised sciences such as climate change; the web, like Guttenberg’s press, has opened up new vistas of thought and expression. [ii] https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/ef-gast-data-research-report-062717.pdf [iii] Chapter 8 of the 2000 IPCC report titled “Model Evaluation” [iv] https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0809/0809.3762.pdf [v] Carlo Rovelli: The Order of Time.2017

Large Antarctic snowfall increases could counter sea level rise, scientists say

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/01/03/large-antarctic-snowfall-increases-could-counter-sea-level-rise-scientists-say/?sw_bypass=true&utm_term=.15a70917f8ad By Chris Mooney  January 3 at 3:48 PM 2013-2014 MODIS Mosaic of Antarctica. Courtesy of ‘National Snow and Ice Data Center and NASA. Scientists have found large increases snow accumulation in a vast region of eastern Antarctica, a trend that, if it continues or becomes more widespread, could lessen the ice sheet’s contribution to sea level rise and possibly help mitigate one of the most feared consequences of climate change. The new study, conducted by scientists from NASA and several other institutions, examined snowfall in western Queen Maud Land, an area due south of the southern tip of Africa that is warming rapidly and contains 7 percent of Antarctica’s ice overall. Based on a more than 500 foot long ice core extracted from the thick sheet of ice and containing a snowfall record dating back 2,000 years, the researchers found that snow accumulation levels had been rising since around 1900, and the rise is most marked in the most recent decades up through the year 2010. It’s a finding that aligns with the notion that climate change, by increasing the atmosphere’s retention of water vapor, is increasing precipitation. “We know very robustly that the present day is not anything like we’ve seen in the past essentially 2,000 years” for snowfall, said Brooke Medley, a NASA research scientist who was the lead author of the study in Geophysical Research Letters. “It’s receiving much more precipitation.” Medley conducted the research with colleagues at institutions in the U.S., the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Germany. The work, she said, casts light on the large scale dynamics of how water moves onto, and through, the Antarctic ice sheet to the sea — a process of addition and subtraction whose overall sums determine how the ice sheet is affecting the level of the planet’s oceans. Antarctica overall contains about 200 feet of potential sea level rise. A huge amount of snow falls atop Antarctica every year — the equivalent of 5 to 7 millimeters of sea level rise annually, the new study states. But at the same time, Medley explained, that snowfall is usually balanced by the loss of ice around the periphery of the ice sheet, where it melts in contact with ocean waters or slides out into sea and eventually floats away in large chunks. Any tweak to either side of this equation — more snowfall, or more ice loss — would change Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise. And we already know Antarctic ice loss has been increasing, particularly in the vulnerable West Antarctic region, which has drawn massive media attention as several large glaciers have markedly retreated. “It’s ‘what goes in,’ versus ‘what goes out,’” Medley said. “Most studies aren’t interested in the ‘what goes in’ part, but they’re equally important.” Sure enough, the current study found that snowfall atop western Queen Maud Land is 25 percent larger than snowfall in the preindustrial era, before the late 19th century. Meanwhile, this has happened even as temperatures have risen by a sharp 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade at Kohnen Station, a weather station in the region that currently offers a 19 year temperature record. To provide a significant counterweight to Antarctica’s expected long term ice loss, however, the increased snow accumulation would have to continue in coming decades and also occur elsewhere across the continent — areas the study did not cover. The researchers surmised that overall, this trend of growing precipitation that they documented is probably occurring over a vast area of Antarctica — about 7 to 10 percent of the ice sheet. Meanwhile, when the scientists compared the results to the findings of a group of global climate models, they found that temperature rises and snowfall accumulation were outstripping the pace of model predictions, even in a very high end global warming scenario. Indeed, the study notes that models predict an increase in snowfall accumulation atop Antarctica by the end of the century that is equivalent to 1.5 millimeters of sea level annually. Such a large amount, if not offset by increased ice losses at the periphery of Antarctica, would counter about half of current sea level rise. However, while snowfall increases across Antarctica are expected, the current research only addresses the western part of Queen Maud Land. Further research would have to show whether anything like this amount of change is happening elsewhere — and to what extent it may be offsetting ice loss from West Antarctica and elsewhere. Still, several experts consulted by the Post for this article agreed that the new research could have significant implications. “The notion that increased accumulation in East Antarctica will at least partly offset increased ice outflow has long been discussed,” said Ted Scambos, an Antarctic expert at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, by email. “The problem is that in the long term, if the Earth warms, the ice sheets shrink. The compensation effect does not last.” “For human planning, however, delaying the [sea level rise] by a few centuries is a bit like saying, ‘no need to worry — never mind,’” Scambos continued. “If true, it could have a huge impact on the eventual pace of [sea level rise].” Andrew Shepherd, an Antarctic expert at the University of Leeds, said the gap between climate models and observations in this case requires further research. “It’s important to find out whether this discrepancy is widespread across the continent, and present in other climate models, so that climate projections can be revised to take increased snowfall into account, as this could offset a proportion of expected future sea level rise,” he said by email. The new result follows on a prior 2015 NASA study that found that Antarctica as a whole was growing in mass as recently as 2008 — a contested finding that was embraced by many climate change doubters and skeptics. The current result is different, however. Medley stressed in an interview that while snowfall accumulation could be partially mitigating ice losses in West Antarctica, she is not asserting that Antarctica is currently gaining ice — just that current losses may be offset somewhat. “If you take the net, we’re still looking at ice loss,” Medley said. At the same time, the findings themselves in a sense presume the reality of human caused climate change — after all, temperatures are rising rapidly in Queen Maud Land (albeit with only a short thermometer record of 19 years so far), and an increase in precipitation is what would be expected to occur in response to climate change. So while there’s nothing here that refutes climate change, the new research may indeed point to possible a silver lining — especially if verified in further research.  Comments Chris Mooney reports on science and the environment.  Follow @chriscmooney Most Read 1 AnalysisAmerica’s forgotten towns: Can they be saved or should people just leave? 2 Gene therapy for inherited blindness sets precedent: $850,000 price tag 3 Bitcoin got a big boost in 2017. 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Promising to ‘Make Our Planet Great Again,’ Macron lures 13 U.S. climate scientists to France

By Steven Mufson December 11 at 2:15 PM Former secretary generals of the United Nations Kofi Annan, left, and Ban Ki-moon, right, sit across from French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Dec, 11, 2017. (Pool photo by Michel Euler via Reuters) What initially looked like an impish dig at President Trump by French President Emmanuel Macron over climate policy has turned into a concrete plan. First, when the Trump administration proposed slashing federal science budgets and then, on June 1, when Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris climate accord, Macron took to social media to offer (in perfect English) to greet with open arms — and research dollars — American scientists worried about the political climate as well as global warming. Macron urged worried climate scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs to see France as a “second homeland” and to come work there because “we all share the same responsibility: make our planet great again.” The Energy 202 newsletter Your daily guide to the energy and environment debate. Sign up Two years after the Paris climate accord was adopted, the French government is unveiling a list of 18 “laureates” — 13 of them working in the United States — who have won a “Make Our Planet Great Again” competition for research grants awarded for as long as five years. They include professors and researchers at Cornell University, Columbia University, Stanford University and other institutions. “For me, the chance to work on some very exciting science questions with my French colleagues and not be so dependent on the crazy stuff that goes on in Congress and with the current administration is honestly very attractive,” Louis A. Derry, a professor of Earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell, said in an interview. “But it can be embarrassing to try and explain what is going on at home right now.” Derry lamented a “devaluing of science by this administration.” And he said the tax plan Congress is considering would have a “catastrophic” effect on graduate students. “I don’t think the country is well served by this,” he said. [Emmanuel Macron speaks to the world. But what about the French?] The French government’s offer attracted 1,822 applications, nearly two-thirds of them from the United States. France’s research ministry pruned that to 450 “high-quality” candidates for long-term projects. A second round of grants will be awarded in the partnership with Germany.

Now It’s “Global Stilling” …Researchers Amazed: Global Wind Speeds Have SLOWED DOWN Since 1960s!

Now It’s “Global Stilling” …Researchers Amazed: Global Wind Speeds Have SLOWED DOWN Since 1960s! http://notrickszone.com/2017/10/07/now-its-global-stilling-researchers-amazed-global-wind-speeds-have-slowed-down-since-1960s/ German public radio DLF here reports an astonishing finding by scientists: Global wind speeds globally are slowing down! A number of European scientist groups and a European science magazine of the EU Commission just reported on this. Global wind speeds are slowing down, European researchers believe. Image: anemometer, NOAA public domain photo. According to the researchers, worldwide wind speeds have slowed down by about half a kilometer per hour since the 1960s. The phenomenon is known as “stilling”, and scientists are not sure why it is happening. They speculate that it may have something to do with urbanization, climate change and cumulus clouds. But then the report admits: “Or it could be due to ageing wind speed instruments producing inaccurate results.” Normally this should come across as being good news amid the claims that “global warming” is leading to more powerful and destructive storms. With slower wind speeds, one would naturally assume less storm destruction. But instead the researchers see only dark clouds ahead and warn that this could have “terrible consequences for things like agriculture” and that weak winds “also mean that smog over cities will stick around longer”. It adds: And while it may sound deceptively calm, it could be a vital, missing piece of the climate change puzzle and a serious threat to our societies.” We are damned no matter what happens. Send more funding Naturally, there’s a call for MORE MONEY as University of Gothenburg climatologist Dr. Cesar Azorin-Molina “believes there is an urgent need to determine the causes of stilling in a changing climate“. Ironically, another problem the report hints at is that wind farms may also see less output as a result. Now aren’t windfarms supposed to make the weather tamer in the first place? This is like blaming harsher winters for obstructing the fight against warming because people have to emit more CO2 to keep warm. maybe wind farms are a factor in slowing down winds as they extract energy from the wind. Not surprisingly, the results of the researchers are getting only tiny blurbs of reporting in the media. For years people have been brainwashed into thinking man-made global warming is leading to stronger winds. But now they are supposed to believe the opposite is happening? The public must never hear that winds are calming down. All the contradictions climate science has put out are starting to catch up and cast the field’s credibility into serious question. The junk science never ceases to amaze us. — gReader Pro

New Study By German Physicists Concludes We Can Expect Climate Cooling For Next 50 Years!

By P Gosselin on 1. August 2017 German physicists: “CO2 plays only minor role for global climate” In a just published study in The Open Atmospheric Science Journal here, German scientists Horst-Joachim Lüdecke and Carl-Otto Weiss have used a large number of temperature proxies worldwide to construct a global temperature mean over the last 2000 years, dubbed G7, in order to find out more about the sun’s role on climate change. Their results drop a huge surprise on the laps of scientists who have long believed the earth is warming due to human-emitted CO2. The analysis by the German scientists shows the strongest climate cycle components as 1000, 460, and 190-year periods. The G7 global temperature extrema coincide with the Roman, Medieval, and present optima, as well as the well-known minimum of AD 1450 during the Little Ice Age. Correlation 0.84 Using further complex analyses, they constructed a representation of G7, which shows a remarkable Pearson correlation of 0.84 with the 31-year running average of G7. The authors used extensive local temperature proxy data [2 – 6] together with Britain’s Hadley CRU temperature records since 1870 and the recent satellite measurements, and combined them to make up the global temperature time series G7 for the last 2000 years. In accordance to the definition of climate, the blue curve in the paper’s Fig. 3, shown above, depicts the climate history as the 30-year running average of the grey curve. Noteworthy, the historically known temperature extrema are well reproduced by the blue climate curve: The Roman Optimum (~0 AD), the Medieval Optimum (~1000 AD), the Present Optimum, as well as the Little Ice Age (~1500 AD), Also the pronounced minimum of 1450 AD, when the vines in southern France were killed by cold. Also clearly shown by the climate curve is the warming from 1850 to 1995. The detailed analysis of the local records show in general a multitude of peaks, the authors say, and the G7 however shows only 3 dominant peaks, which correspond to cycles known from local studies, of approx. 1000, 500, 200-year periods. The combination of local records to a global record apparently averages out local cycles and emphasizes global cycles. The sum of these three dominant cycles (red curve in Fig. 3) reproduces the measured climate (blue curve in Fig. 3) with a remarkable correlation of 0.84. In particular the sum of the three cycles shows the temperature increase from 1850 to 1995 as a result of the three natural cycles, the German researchers say, adding: “Thus one can conclude that CO2 plays only a minor role (if any) for the global climate.”

German Scientists Find Climate Change Is Cyclical – ‘Global Cooling Coming Soon’

German Scientists Claim Climate Change Is Cyclical ‘Global Cooling Coming Soon’ The Sun as climate driver is repeatedly discussed in the literature but proofs are often weak. In order to elucidate the solar influence, we have used a large number of temperature proxies worldwide to construct a global temperature mean G7 over the last 2000 years. The Fourier spectrum of G7 shows the strongest components as ~1000-, ~460-, and ~190 – year periods whereas other cycles of the individual proxies are considerably weaker. The G7 temperature extrema coincide with the Roman, medieval, and present optima as well as the well-known minimum of AD 1450 during the Little Ice Age. We note that the temperature increase of the late 19th and 20th century is represented by the harmonic temperature representation, and thus is of pure multiperiodic nature. It can be expected that the periodicity of G7, lasting 2000 years so far, will persist also for the foreseeable future. It predicts a temperature drop from present to AD 2050, a slight rise from 2050 to 2130, and a further drop from AD 2130 to 2200. –Horst-Joachim Lüdecke and Carl-Otto Weiss, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal  (11) 2017. 1) German Scientists Claim Climate Change Is Cyclical, Global Cooling Coming Soon P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, 1 August 2017 2) The UK Met Office’s Model Muddle GWPF TV, 3 August 2017 3) Germany’s €300Billion Green Flop: Rising Consumption of Fossil Fuels Will See Further Increase In CO2 Emissions Green Energy Wire, 2 August 2017 4) Reality Check: Germany Will Be Powered By Cheap Coal For Decades To Come Reuters, 2 August 2017  5) UK Govt’s Green Energy Policy Blamed For Rising Energy Bills The Daily Telegraph, 2 August 201 6) Green Tory Madness: Renewable Energy Subsidies To Treble In Five Years The Daily Telegraph, 3 August 2017 7) Matt Ridley: Britain’s Energy Policy Keeps Picking Losers The Times, 31 July 2017   1) German Scientists Claim Climate Change Is Cyclical, Global Cooling Coming Soon P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, 1 August 2017 The dominant climate cycles have persisted for a long time: “This allows to predict cooling until 2070 AD.” In a just published study in The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, German scientists Horst-Joachim Lüdecke and Carl-Otto Weiss have used a large number of temperature proxies worldwide to construct a global temperature mean over the last 2000 years, dubbed G7, in order to find out more about the sun’s role on climate change. Their results drop a huge surprise on the laps of scientists who have long believed the earth is warming due to human-emitted CO2. The analysis by the German scientists shows the strongest climate cycle components as 1000, 460, and 190-year periods. The G7 global temperature extrema coincide with the Roman, Medieval, and present optima, as well as the well-known minimum of AD 1450 during the Little Ice Age. Correlation 0.84 Using further complex analyses, they constructed a representation of G7, which shows a remarkable Pearson correlation of 0.84 with the 31-year running average of G7. The authors used extensive local temperature proxy data [2 – 6] together with Britain’s Hadley CRU temperature records since 1870 and the recent satellite measurements, and combined them to make up the global temperature time series G7 for the last 2000 years. In accordance to the definition of climate, the blue curve in the paper’s Fig. 3, shown above, depicts the climate history as the 30-year running average of the grey curve. Noteworthy, the historically known temperature extrema are well reproduced by the blue climate curve: The Roman Optimum (~0 AD), the Medieval Optimum (~1000 AD), the Present Optimum, as well as the Little Ice Age (~1500 AD), Also the pronounced minimum of 1450 AD, when the vines in southern France were killed by cold. Also clearly shown by the climate curve is the warming from 1850 to 1995. The detailed analysis of the local records show in general a multitude of peaks, the authors say, and the G7 however shows only 3 dominant peaks, which correspond to cycles known from local studies, of approx. 1000, 500, 200-year periods. The combination of local records to a global record apparently averages out local cycles and emphasizes global cycles. The sum of these three dominant cycles (red curve in Fig. 3) reproduces the measured climate (blue curve in Fig. 3) with a remarkable correlation of 0.84. In particular the sum of the three cycles shows the temperature increase from 1850 to 1995 as a result of the three natural cycles, the German researchers say, adding: “Thus one can conclude that CO2 plays only a minor role (if any) for the global climate.” Lüdecke and Weiss note that the present maximum of the cycle sum corresponds well with the world temperature stagnation since 1995 AD, the stagnation unexplained by current climate models. As the dominant cycles have persisted for an extended time, one can assume that they will persist for the near future. They write: “This allows to predict cooling until 2070 AD.” Full post 2) The UK Met Office’s Model Muddle GWPF TV, 3 August 2017 The Met Offices’ model-based rainfall forecasts have not stood up to empirical tests, and do not seem to give better advice than observational records. click on image to watch the video In July this year, scientists from the UK Meteorological Office released a new study estimating the risk of UK regions suffering a record-breaking monthly rainfall between the months of October and March. Vikki Thompson, Met Office: We want to understand the chance of these extreme rainfall events in our current climate and the likelihood of exceeding the rainfall levels that we have seen so far. We have used the new Met Office supercomputer to run many simulations of the climate, using a global climate model. But rather than producing an estimate of the risk based on the observational record, they claimed that computer models provided a far more useful and accurate result to inform policymakers about what to prepare for. A Met Office infographic explaining the work even shows the historical data being thrown into a waste bin Vikki Thompson, Met Office: This is the first time that we have used what we have called the UNSEEN method, which stands for Unprecedented, Simulated, Extremes, Using Ensembles. To get their estimate, they ran thousands of climate simulations and found that there was a seven per cent risk of a record monthly rainfall in Southeast England in any given winter. But this result does not give any better information than what could be obtained using a piece of paper, rather than a £97 million super computer. The seven per cent chance of a month between October and March exceeding the record for that month in any year is equivalent to a new record being set every 86 months. New monthly records were set twice in the 216 October-March months between 1980 and 2015. Therefore the ‘risk’ of a new record for monthly rainfall is 5.5% per year, according to the record. Although the researchers claim that the climate has changed, the results for the two preceding 36 year periods in the 20thCentury record suggest similar results. Between 1944 and 1979, there were three new record monthly rainfalls – an 8.7 per cent chance of any month in a year exceeding the existing record. And between 1908 and 1943, there were 4 record events – a risk of 14.5%. The risk of monthly rainfall exceeding the monthly record in the Southeast of England has not risen, contrary to many claims.. The existing monthly rainfall records for October, November and December were set in 1987, 1939 and 1915, and the records for February and March were set in 1951 and 1947. Therefore, the Met Office computer models do not give any more reliable insight than the historical data. And recent history suggests that the Met Office is over-reliant on computer modelling. CH4 News, April 2012. Britain is facing its most severe water shortage 1976. Now, another seventeen counties have been added to the official English drought zone. This new research follows the Met Office’s prediction of the continued drought conditions that affected much of the UK in late 2013. January 2014 was the wettest on record for that month. Rain and floods caused widespread disruption and flooding. Only a few years earlier, the Met Office predicted that the summers of 2008 and 2009, would bring average temperatures, and drier than normal conditions. But far from the ‘barbecue summer’ the British public had been told to expect, both summers were cold and wet. And Met Office’s winter predictions have been no better than its summer forecasts. In 2008, they predicted the trend of mild winters would continue. But the winter of 2008/9 was the coldest for a decade. The following year, they repeated their prediction, and the winter of 2009/10 was the coldest for 30 years. One reason for these mistakes maybe an assumption of anthropogenic global warming, built into the Met Office’s forecasts. In early 2007, Scientists at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre claimed that year’s average global temperature was likely to be the highest on record. They claimed that the model they had produced had a 0.06 degree centigrade margin of error. But by the summer, it was announced that the world’s temperature had fallen. The Met Office retired its old model, and announced a new one. But that warming didn’t appear, and prompted many to point out that the Met Office’s models were consistently running much warmer than observations. Increasingly, seasonal, annual, decadal, and century-long forecasts are being provided to policymakers and planners, providing the basis of import decisions and policies. These model-based forecasts have not stood up to testing, and do not seem to give better advice than observational records. 3) Germany’s €300Billion Green Flop: Rising Consumption of Fossil Fuels Will See Further Increase In CO2 Emissions Green Energy Wire, 2 August 2017 Germany’s rising consumption of oil, gas and lignite in the first half of 2017 indicates that the country of the Energiewende will see another increase in CO2 emissions in 2017 after a rise in 2016, said Agora Energiewende head Patrick Graichen. “The data translates to a one-percent increase of energy-related emissions, compared to the same period last year. This corresponds to about 5 million tonnes of CO2,” Graichen told Clean Energy Wire. New data released by energy market research group AG Energiebilanzen (AGEB) saw energy consumption in Germany increase 0.8 percent in the first half of 2017, due to positive economic development and slightly cooler weather at the beginning of the year. “The hope that 2017 emissions will be below last year’s levels fades visibly. Rather, this is ground for concern that – just like in 2016 – we will see emissions rise in 2017,” said Graichen. Full story 4) Reality Check: Germany Will Be Powered By Cheap Coal For Decades To Come Reuters, 2 August 2017  Burning coal for power looks set to remain the backbone of Germany’s energy supply for decades yet, an apparent contrast to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ambitions for Europe’s biggest economy to be a role model in tackling climate change. Merkel is avoiding the sensitive subject of phasing out coal, which could hit tens of thousands of jobs, in the campaign for the Sept. 24 election, in which she hopes to win a fourth term. Although well over 20 billion euros are spent each year to boost Germany’s green energy sector, coal still accounts for 40 percent of energy generation, down just 10 points from 2000. To avoid disruption in the power and manufacturing sectors, coal imports and mines must keep running, say industry lobbies, despite the switch to fossil-free energy. “(Coal) makes a big contribution to German and European energy supply security and this will remain the case for a long time to come,” the chairman of the coal importers’ lobby VDKi, Wolfgang Cieslik told reporters last week. He also stressed it was crucial for steel manufacturing in Germany, the seventh biggest producer in the world, that use a quarter of the country’s coal imports. Critics point to the irony in Merkel’s tacit support for coal given that she criticized U.S. President Donald Trump for ditching the Paris climate accord after pledging to voters he would lift environmental rules and revive coal-mining jobs. Apart from the environmentalist Greens, who want coal generation to end by 2030, none of the main political parties have set phase-out target dates. Huge vested interests are stifling debate, whether it is potential job losses that alarm powerful unions or the effect on industrial companies relying on a stable power supply. Industry figures show renewables accounted for 29 percent of power output in both 2015 and 2016, up from 7 percent in 2000. But plants burning imported hard coal still make up 17 percent and brown coal from domestic mines 23 percent of power output. Cheap coal lets them run at full tilt when necessary while the weather dictates if wind and solar produce anything at all. Full story  5) UK Govt’s Green Energy Policy Blamed For Rising Energy Bills The Daily Telegraph, 2 August 2017 Steven Swinford, deputy political editor Green taxes will cost households almost £150 from next year, British Gas has claimed as it blamed the Government for a huge rise in electricity bills for three million of its customers. Britain’s biggest supplier announced that from September electricity prices will increase by 12.5 per cent, adding £76 to the typical annual bill. The company said that the cost of green subsidies levied on bills has created “significant pressures” and suggested that it had no choice but to respond by raising prices. However the ministers last night hit back by suggesting that the price rises are unjustified as it told the regulator to do more to safeguard vulnerable customers. Government sources highlighted the fact that British Gas is also axing a £15 dual fuel discount currently enjoyed by 3.1 million of its customers from September. Ministers claimed they have not ruled out imposing an energy price cap, although the measure appeared to have been abandoned after the Tories disastrous performance in the General Election. The announcement by British Gas also added to mounting tensions in the Conservative Party over the current push for renewable energy. Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary, has signalled that more wind farms may need to be built to power a new generation of electric cars under Government plans to ban the sale of diesel and petrol vehicles. His plans are opposed by some Tory MPs, who accused the Government of punishing hard-working families with green taxes. Owen Paterson, a Tory MP and former Environment Secretary, said: “It is the most regressive form of taxation since the Sherriff of Nottingham, transferring money from those who are the least well off to wealthy landowners and businesses. It’s robbing the poor to pay the rich. “We are getting less and less competitive with countries like America, where lower energy prices mean that whole industries are coming back. “We are going in the opposite direction. We should have a free market in technology. It would be very much mistaken to continue increasing subsidies to failed forms of renewables like wind.” British Gas forecast that the cost of the subsidies, which are used to fund renewable sources of energy such as wind and solar, will hit £149 next year having risen by by two-thirds since 2014. The Office for Budget responsibility, the fiscal watchdog, has forecast that environmental levies will rise from £4.6billion in 2015-16 to £13.5billion by 2022. British Gas also said that the cost of delivering energy to people’s homes will have increased by £25, equivalent to almost a fifth, by 2018. One senior Tory claimed that transmission costs have increased partly because wind farms and other renewable energy sources are located so far from where people live. Full story 6) Green Tory Madness: Renewable Energy Subsidies To Treble In Five Years The Daily Telegraph, 3 August 2017 Steven Swinford, deputy political editor The cost of green taxes on energy bills will more than treble over the next five years, the official economic forecaster has said. The Office for Budget Responsibility said that cost of the subsidies, which are levied on household and business energy bills, is expected to rise from £4.6billion in 2015-16 to £13.5billion in 2021-22. It comes after British Gas claimed that green taxes will cost households £150 from next year as it blamed the Government for a huge rise in electricity bills. British Gas forecast that the cost of the subsidies, which are used to fund renewable sources of energy such as wind and solar, will hit £149 next year having risen by by two-thirds since 2014. It announced that 3million of its customers on a dual fuel standard variable tariff will see their bill rise by an average of £76 to £1,120. The figures will add to mounting tensions in the Conservative Party over the current push for renewable energy. Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary, has signalled that more wind farms may need to be built to power a new generation of electric cars under Government plans to ban the sale of diesel and petrol vehicles. Asked about wind energy, he said that “we have no alternative to embracing new technology”. However some Tory MPs have warned that the taxes are “regressive” and will penalise those who can least afford it. Full story 7) Matt Ridley: Britain’s Energy Policy Keeps Picking Losers The Times, 31 July 2017 The liberalised energy markets introduced by Nigel Lawson in 1982, embraced by the Blair government and emulated across Europe, delivered both affordability and reliability. But they were abandoned. All three parties share the blame for Britain’s policy fiasco. Shortly before parliament broke up this month, there was a debate on a Lords select committee report on electricity policy that was remarkable for its hard-hitting conclusions. The speakers, and signatories of the report, included a former Labour chancellor, Tory energy secretary, Tory Scottish secretary, cabinet secretary, ambassador to the European Union and Treasury permanent secretary, as well as a bishop, an economics professor, a Labour media tycoon and a Lib Dem who was shortlisted for governor of the Bank of England. Genuine heavyweights, in short. They were in general agreement: energy policy is a mess, decarbonisation has been pursued at the expense of affordability and, in particular, the nuclear plant at Hinkley Point C in Somerset is an expensive disaster. Their report came out before the devastating National Audit Office report on Hinkley, which said the government had “locked consumers into a risky and expensive project [and] did not consider sufficiently the risks and costs to the consumer”. Hinkley is but the worst example of a nationalised energy policy of picking losers. The diesel fiasco is another. The wind industry, with its hefty subsidies paid from the poor to the rich to produce unreliable power, is a third. The biomass mess (high carbon, high cost and environmental damage) is a fourth. The liberalised energy markets introduced by Nigel Lawson in 1982, embraced by the Blair government and emulated across Europe, delivered both affordability and reliability. But they were abandoned and, in the words of the Lords committee, “a succession of policy interventions has led to the creation of a complex system of subsidies and government contracts at the expense of competition. Nobody has built a power station without some form of government guarantee since 2012.” All three parties share the blame. Labour’s Climate Change Act of 2008 made Britain the only country with mandatory decarbonisation targets, a crony-capitalist’s dream. The Lib Dems who ran the energy department for five years, Chris Huhne and Ed Davey, negotiated the disastrous Hinkley contract. The Tories reviewed the decision in 2016, by which time it was clear we had managed the unique feat of finding a technology that was untested yet already obsolete. They decided to go ahead anyway, missing the chance to blame the other parties for it. As the energy analyst Peter Atherton put it, the three parties “have managed to design possibly the most expensive programme for delivering nuclear power we could have come up with”. The chief Lib Dem mistake was to ignore the shale gas and oil revolutions under way in America and assume that fossil fuel prices would rise from already high levels. By 2011, influenced by peak-oil nonsense and lobbied by professors of “sustainability”, the department of energy and climate change was projecting that the oil price would be between $97 and $126 per barrel in 2017. Today it is about $50 a barrel, roughly half the lowest of the 2011 projections. Gas prices were expected to be about 76p per therm by now, whereas they are actually about half that: 37p. The shale revolution is gathering pace all the time. Britain has very promising shales and could prosper and cut emissions if it joins in, so let us hope the first wells about to be drilled in Lancashire by Cuadrilla, against the determined opposition of wealthy, middle-class protesters, prove successful. (No, I don’t have a commercial interest in shale.) This forecasting mistake is behind much of the rising cost of Hinkley. In 2015 the whole-life cost of its power was expected to be £14 billion. Now it is £50 billion. Because consumers are on the hook to pay the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the “strike price” for Hinkley, we must hope that the project is badly delayed, because that way our children will at least spend fewer years paying inflated electricity prices. These bad forecasts, widely criticised at the time, make all strike prices horribly expensive, for onshore and offshore wind and solar as well. Lib Dem ministers kept saying at the time that subsidies for renewables and Hinkley would protect the consumer against “volatile” gas prices. Yes, they have done so: by guaranteeing high prices. Oh for a little downward volatility! Britain’s industrial and commercial users now have some of the highest electricity prices in the developed world, which find their way to households in cost of living and a downward pressure on wages. American industry pays about half as much for its electricity as we do, and everyone benefits. Energy prices are not just any consumer price: they determine the prosperity of the entire economy. Well, no use crying over spilt future money. What are we to do? Here is where it could get interesting. Almost nobody wants Hinkley to go ahead, apart from the contractors who get to build it. EDF and Areva, the French owner and developer, are in trouble over the only two comparable reactors in Europe. The one at Flamanville is still to start working, many years behind schedule. The French unions want Hinkley cancelled. Lord Howell of Guildford, the former energy secretary, wisely pointed out in the Lords that the key player is China, a partner in the project. Rather than cost, the government’s excuse for revisiting Hinkley last year was partly worries about security. This was a silly worry and bad diplomacy. However, it is not clear China wants to go ahead, and subtle negotiation could tease this out. The great prize for China was regulatory approval through Britain’s gold-standard “generic design assessment” process, which could unlock foreign markets and give a green light for a Chinese-built reactor at Bradwell in Essex. But Lord Howell says the Chinese increasingly realise that the Hinkley design is a dead end, as costs escalate and delays grow. And they know that the future for nuclear power must lie in smaller, modular units, mass-manufactured like cars rather than assembled from scratch like Egyptian pyramids. Their “Nimble Dragon” design could slot into both the Hinkley and Bradwell sites, perhaps beside the larger Hualong design. Full post

40-Year Veteran German Climatologist: ‘CO2 A Scapegoat” …UN IPCC ‘A Marketing Organization…Fundamentally Corrupt’

Retired 40-Year Veteran German Climatologist: “CO2 A Scapegoat” …IPCC “A Marketing Organization” By P Gosselin on 27. June 2017 The German-language RT recently conducted an interview with retired climatologist Prof. Werner Kirstein concerning President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris Accord and the state of climate “science” itself. Hat-tip EIKE. Image cropped from RT. Kirstein, a German climatologist of 40 years, has been one of Germany’s most high-profile critics of climate alarmism. He maintains that the warming over the past decades has been mostly due to natural causes associated with the climb out of the Little Ice Age, and therefore is not surprising. “An invention” In the RT interview, on the subject of Trump’s recently announced withdrawal, Kirstein says that it is no surprise because within the Republican party itself there have been a number of politicians who for 20 years long haven’t believed in man-made climate change, and that over the past ten years “hundreds of US scientists say it’s an invention“, and who even said so in a signed a letter to former President Obama. On the claims made by the IPCC that man is behind the recent climate change (4:50 mark) Kirstein doesn’t buy it, reminding us that in the past CO2 has always varied, and that man’s contribution is puny in comparison to the natural ones. In total Kirstein agrees that CO2 is “a harmless gas” and calls the IPCC’s conclusion that CO2 drives global temperature based on a coincidental correlation over 30 years, 1970 – 2000, a mistake. When I go back and look at history, there’s absolutely no relationship between CO2 and temperature.” CO2 used as a scapegoat At the 9-minute mark the retired professor tells that the claim that CO2 is a greenhouse gas is highly controversial, and that the trace gas is in fact being used as a scapegoat by politicians, and says that the odds of cooling, based on history, are greater. “Eventually it is going to come.” IPCC is about marketing, “fundamentally corrupt” On the question as to why there has been so much climate-catastrophe panic spread by the media, Kirstein blames economic interests, and that governments of course can always find scientists who are willing to go along with the catastrophe scenarios – naming the PIK Potsdam Institute as an example. He views the IPCC as a “marketing organization” run mostly by sociologists who have the task of marketing climate change. He quotes Vincent Gray (13:00): “The IPCC is fundamentally corrupt.” Kirstein tells the reporter: “That says it all, doesn’t it!” He adds: “Today you do not find scientists on the IPCC, instead you have political scientists.” Kirstein reminds there is a big difference between climate-protection and environmental protection, and agrees the environment needs to be protected, but “one does not have anything to do with the other.” Climate science is “a lie” Kirstein finds it’s okay to be politically in favor of eliminating fossil fuels, but then “you shouldn’t lie to the public” about why it should be done. When Kirstein is asked why he gives speeches criticizing climate science, he says (17:20): Because I’m completely against it. Because I see that it just cannot be that the people are being dumbed down by having them believe that there is a climate catastrophe through CO2.” Driven by funding On the subject of consensus, Kirstein says he is not alone as a skeptic in Germany, and especially worldwide. Of those scientists who insist that man-made climate change is real, he points out that most of them have their sights on funding. I know some colleagues here in house, for example, and other colleagues not in Leipzig, and others here in Leipzig, who profit from the funding. You simply just do it, and and you don’t speak about your opinion. In private discussions, I’ve heard: ‘Well, you know, how am I supposed to make a living?’” He summarizes the driving factor behind climate research, using a famous saying: “Whose bread one eats, whose words one speaks.”  

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