Pielke Jr.: "How anyone can get away with looking at 29 years of economic data to make claims of attribution is beyond me...At the same time the dramatic reduction in flood losses as a proportion of GDP is a major policy success of the past century...More precip, by itself, means neither more flooding nor more damage."
But Bjorn Lomborg rebuts: "Tremendously misleading. The number of billion-dollar disasters will of course increase as society gets richer. When corrected for increased wealth, the world and the US are not seeing increasing damages (but insignificantly *decreasing* damages)." - "Despite breathless climate reporting, the relative cost of global weather catastrophes 1990-2020 not increasing (actually insignificantly decreasing)."
Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: "NOAA is a great agency & contributes massively to saving life and property. It is thus so embarrassing that they dabble in bad economics for media catnip and clicks. Everything you hear about 'billion $ disasters' is wrong."
Kerry Emanuel claims: "Economic damage, normalized by world domestic product... from weather-related natural disasters have been increasing greatly."
Dr. Pielke responds: "This is incontrovertibly false. Contrary to Emanuel's claims, this metric is not "increasing greatly" (actually it is not even increasing)
"In fact, every study that has looked at global economic losses after normalization (for GDP or other factors) has consistently failed to identify any increase in losses at all."
Emanuel also writes: "There is strong and mounting evidence that climate change is increasing... the incidence of strong hurricanes."
Pielke Jr. responds: "Yet a recent WMO assessment polled its authors & concluded (image) no increase (so how can there be more disasters?)"
Kerry Emanuel has every right to his opinions, of course. But he should attend to his own factual accuracy before claiming (falsely) that "Michael Shellenberger's statement is not defensible" & "is patently false."
Pielke Jr.: "Zero, 0, no one defending KKOV20 I mean, I get it ..."
"Bottom line KKOV20 makes a great case study from start to finish. Science promotion. Hurricanes & climate (yay!). Media hype Gross misrepresentation. Questionable science. But that is why we publish ... to spark debate & discussion. And KKOV20 have certainly achieved that goal."
That so-called “unhirable” academic is Professor Judy Curry, formerly the chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, and a Fellow of both the American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society. By any conventional academic metric, Curry has compiled an impressive record over many decades. The idea that she would be unhirable would seem laughable.
As we explained in an analysis of Australian bushfire losses over time: “bushfire damage is not solely a function of bushfire weather; far from it, in fact. Even given a gradual aggravation of bushfire weather due to anthropogenic climate change or other factors, a bushfire still has to be ignited. Once ignited, a bushfire then has to traverse the landscape and impact a populated area, where outcomes in terms of damage will be a function of the spatial disposition of dwellings with respect to the fire front, and especially distance of properties from the bushland boundary.”