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All Natural… Four New Scientific Publications Show No Detectable Sea Level Rise Effect of CO2

August 29, 2016

It is widely assumed that sea levels have been rising in recent decades largely in response to anthropogenic global warming. However, due to the inherently large contribution of natural oscillatory influences on sea level fluctuations, this assumption lacks substantiation. Instead, natural factors or internal variability override the detection of an anthropogenic signal and may instead largely explain the patterns in sea level rise in large regions of the global oceans. Scientists who have recently attempted to detect an anthropogenic signal in regional sea level rise trends have had to admit that there is “no observable sea-level effect of anthropogenic global warming,” or that the “sea level rise pattern does not correspond to externally forced anthropogenic sea level signal,” and that sea level “trends are still within the range of long-term internal decadal variability.” Below are highlighted summaries from 4 peer-reviewed scientific papers published within the last few months. 1. Hansen et al., 2016 For the convenience of the readers, our basic results are shown in Figure 1. We identified five individual oscillations (upper panel), including a sea-level amplitude of 70 mm (top–bottom [t-b]) of the 18.6-year oscillation caused by the lunar nodal oscillation (LNO) … Together with a general sea-level rise of 1.18 mm/y, the sum of these five sea-level oscillations constitutes a reconstructed or theoretical sea-level curve of the eastern North Sea to the central Baltic Sea(Figure 1, lower panel), which correlates very well with the observed sea-level changes of the 160-year period (1849–2009), from which 26 long tide gauge time series are available from the eastern North Sea to the central Baltic Sea.  Such identification of oscillators and general trends over 160 years would be of great importance for distinguishing long-term, natural developments from possible, more recent anthropogenic sea-level changes. However, we found that a possible candidate for such anthropogenic development, i.e. the large sea-level rise after 1970, is completely contained by the found small residuals, long-term oscillators, and general trend. Thus, we found that there is (yet) no observable sea-level effect of anthropogenic global warming in the world’s best recorded region. 2. Palanisamy, 2016 Building up on the relationship between thermocline and sea level in the tropical region, we show that most of the observed sea level spatial trend pattern in the tropical Pacific can be explained by the wind driven vertical thermocline movement. By performing detection and attribution study on sea level spatial trend patterns in the tropical Pacific and attempting to eliminate signal corresponding to the main internal climate mode, we further show that the remaining residual sea level trend pattern does not correspond to externally forced anthropogenic sea level signal. In addition, we also suggest that satellite altimetry measurement may not still be accurate enough to detect the anthropogenic signal in the 20-year tropical Pacific sea level trends. 3. Hadi Bordbar et al., 2016 The tropical Pacific has featured some remarkable trends during the recent decades such as an unprecedented strengthening of the Trade Winds, a strong cooling of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern and central part, thereby slowing global warming and strengthening the zonal SST gradient, and highly asymmetric sea level trends with an accelerated rise relative to the global average in the western and a drop in the eastern part. These trends have been linked to an anomalously strong Pacific Walker Circulation, the major zonal atmospheric overturning cell in the tropical Pacific sector, but the origin of the strengthening is controversial. Here we address the question as to whether the recent decadal trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean system are within the range of internal variability, as simulated in long unforced integrations of global climate models. We show that the recent trends are still within the range of long-term internal decadal variability. 4. Dangendorf et al., 2016 The observed 20th century sea level rise represents one of the major consequences of anthropogenic climate change. However, superimposed on any anthropogenic trend there are also considerable decadal to centennial signals linked to intrinsic natural variability in the climate system. … Gravitational effects and ocean dynamics further lead to regionally varying imprints of low frequency variability. In the Arctic, for instance, the causal uncertainties are even up to 8 times larger than previously thought. This result is consistent with recent findings that beside the anthropogenic signature, a non-negligible fraction of the observed 20th century sea level rise still represents a response to pre-industrial natural climate variations such as the Little Ice Age. – See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2016/08/01/all-natural-four-new-scientific-publications-show-no-detectable-sea-level-rise-signal/#sthash.xlBjTcEr.dpuf

Norway’s official gov’t bureau of statistics: ‘The effect of man-made CO2 emissions does not appear to be strong enough to cause systematic changes in the temperature fluctuations during the last 200 years’

October 11, 2023

Norway's official government bureau of statistics, Statistics Norway: "The effect of man-made CO2 emissions does not appear to be strong enough to cause systematic changes in the temperature fluctuations during the last 200 years."https://t.co/8KUeTdDxTZ — CO2 Coalition (@CO2Coalition) October 10, 2023 https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2023/10/04/no-way-norway/ No Way, Norway 04 Oct 2023 | News Roundup Well, this is awkward. Statistics Norway, aka Statistisk sentralbyrå or “the national statistical institute of Norway and the main producer of official statistics”, has just published a paper “To what extent are temperature levels changing due to greenhouse gas emissions?” The awkward part isn’t trying to grasp the subtleties of Norwegian since it’s also available in English. It’s that the Abstract bluntly declares that “standard climate models are rejected by time series data on global temperatures” while the conclusions state “the results imply that the effect of man-made CO2 emissions does not appear to be sufficiently strong to cause systematic changes in the pattern of the temperature fluctuations.” But the really awkward part is that a paper from a government agency dares to address openly so many questions the alarmist establishment has spent decades declaring taboo, from the historical record on climate to the existence of massive uncertainty among scientists on it. For instance, the Introduction starts “A typical feature of observed temperature series over the last two centuries is that they show, more or less, an increasing trend…” which sounds like more of the same, especially from a government agency. Until you read: “A key question is whether this tendency is part of a cycle, or whether the temperature pattern during this period deviates systematically from previous variations.” And if the mere mention of natural temperature cycles of extraordinary magnitude is not enough to have Michael Mann piling tinder around a stake, the authors continue: “Even if recent recorded temperature variations should turn out to deviate from previous variation patterns in a systematic way it is still a difficult challenge to establish how much of this change is due to increasing man-made emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases.” And while you might think these troubled waters are about to be oiled over when they say “At present, there is apparently a high degree of consensus among many climate researchers that the temperature increase of the last decades is systematic (and partly man-made)”, they immediately add snidely “This is certainly the impression conveyed by the mass media.” And then footnote Steven Koonin and Judith Curry, and keep on going. Including warming a historian’s heart by complaining that while global climate models (aka GCMs) attribute most warming since 1950 to humans: “Temperature reconstructions indicate that there is a ‘warming’ trend that seems to have been going on for as long as approximately 400 years. Prior to the last 250 years or so, such a trend could only be due to natural causes.” We won’t quote the entire paper, tempting as it is because of its reference, for instance, to: “The preceding four interglacial periods… at about 125,000, 280,000, 325,000 and 415,000 years before now, with much longer glacial periods in between. All four previous interglacial periods are seen to be warmer than the present.” It is more history. And yes, a huge problem for climate breakdown alarmism is that the long term presents both variability and warmth greater than anything we’ve experienced to which those ignorant of the past attach the pejorative “unprecedented”. But an even bigger problem, given the state of debate, is that agencies that can hardly be silenced by smears and threats of professional ruin are now putting such things forward frankly and boldly. As for various attempts to kill off more recent warmings, the authors insist that temperature reconstructions in Greenland: “with a new method that utilizes argon and nitrogen isotopic ratios from occluded air bubbles… indicate that warmer temperatures were the norm in the earlier part of the past 4,000 years, including century-long intervals nearly 1°C warmer than the decade (2001-2010).” The point is not just that there was no breakdown, no tipping points and no annihilation of cute creatures at that temperature level. It’s that there really was a Minoan Warm Period warmer than today, with CO2 much lower and humans contributing little or nothing to it. The heresy continues, with frank discussions of the sun’s impact on temperature and that of clouds. And a stinging review of the computer models’ incapacity even to predict the past after we know what happened. The paper wraps up by summarizing the outcome of its investigations and its heresy thusly: “the results imply that the effect of man-made CO2 emissions does not appear to be sufficiently strong to cause systematic changes in the pattern of the temperature fluctuations. In other words, our analysis indicates that with the current level of knowledge, it seems impossible to determine how much of the temperature increase is due to emissions of CO2.” Meaning, if nothing else, that it is impossible to attribute nearly all of it to humans so the science is not settled. But it does mean more. Including that CO2 is not a convincing explanation. And that those who insist that it is and lash out at anyone who raises questions are ignorant as well as vicious. Oh well, some may say, let the debate begin and the alarmists may well be vindicated. But our view is that the ferocity of their efforts to exclude such questions from mainstream settings, from universities to newspapers to legislatures, including the Guardian hurriedly rubbishing an Australian politician who dared express doubts (the journalist in question having a “diploma” in “Newspaper Journalism” so not a “climate scientist”), indicates their unease at what will happen if they are forced to lay down their halos and scriptures and start discussing actual science. So thank you Statistics Norway, and let’s hear from Statistics Canada.

Challenges to the CO2 Global Warming Hypothesis: (7) Ocean Currents More Important than the Greenhouse Effect

October 31, 2022

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2022/10/31/challenges-to-the-co2-global-warming-hypothesis-7-ocean-currents-more-important-than-the-greenhouse-effect-115 By Physicist Dr. Ralph Alexander A rather different challenge to the CO2 global warming hypothesis from the challenges discussed in my previous posts postulates that human emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere have only a minimal impact on the earth’s temperature. Instead, it is proposed that current global warming comes from a slowdown in ocean currents. The daring challenge has been made in a recent paper by retired Australian meteorologist William Kininmonth, who was head of his country’s National Climate Centre from 1986 to 1998. Kininmonth rejects the claim of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that greenhouse gases have caused the bulk of modern global warming. The IPCC’s claim is based on the hypothesis that the intensity of cooling longwave radiation to space has been considerably reduced by the increased atmospheric concentration of gases such as CO2. But, he says, the IPCC glosses over the fact that the earth is spherical, so what happens near the equator is very different from what happens at the poles. Most absorption of incoming shortwave solar radiation occurs over the tropics, where the incident radiation is nearly perpendicular to the surface. Yet the emission of outgoing longwave radiation takes place mostly at higher latitudes. Nowhere is there local radiation balance. In an effort by the climate system to achieve balance, atmospheric winds and ocean currents constantly transport heat from the tropics toward the poles. Kininmonth argues, however, that radiation balance can’t exist globally, simply because the earth’s average surface temperature is not constant, with an annual range exceeding 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit). This shows that the global emission of longwave radiation to space varies seasonally, so radiation to space can’t define Earth’s temperature, either locally or globally. In warm tropical oceans, the temperature is governed by absorption of solar shortwave radiation, together with absorption of longwave radiation radiated downward by greenhouse gases; heat carried away by ocean currents; and heat (including latent heat) lost to the atmosphere. Over the last 40 years, the tropical ocean surface has warmed by about 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.7 degrees Fahrenheit). But the warming can’t be explained by rising CO2 that went up from 341 ppm in 1982 to 417 ppm in 2022. This rise boosts the absorption of longwave radiation at the tropical surface by only 0.3 watts per square meter, according to the University of Chicago’s MODTRAN model, which simulates the emission and absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere. The calculation assumes clear sky conditions and tropical atmosphere profiles of temperature and relative humidity. The 0.3 watts per square meter is too little to account for the increase in ocean surface temperature of 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.7 degrees Fahrenheit), which in turn increases the loss of latent and “sensible” (conductive) heat from the surface by about 3.5 watts per square meter, as estimated by Kininmonth. So twelve times as much heat escapes from the tropical ocean to the atmosphere as the amount of heat entering the ocean due to the increase in CO2 level. The absorption of additional radiation energy due to extra CO2 is not enough to compensate for the loss of latent and sensible heat from the increase in ocean temperature. The minimal contribution of CO2 is evident from the following table, which shows how the amount of longwave radiation from greenhouse gases absorbed at the tropical surface goes up only marginally as the CO2 concentration increases. The dominant greenhouse gas is water vapor, which produces 361.4 watts per square meter of radiation at the surface in the absence of CO2; its value in the table (surface radiation) is the average global tropical value. You can see that the increase in greenhouse gas absorption from preindustrial times to the present, corresponding roughly to the CO2 increase from 300 ppm to 400 ppm, is 0.62 watts per square meter. According to the MODTRAN model, this is almost the same as the increase of 0.63 watts per square meter that occurred as the CO2 level rose from 200 ppm to 280 ppm at the end of the last ice age – but which resulted in tropical warming of about 6 degrees Celsius (11 degrees Fahrenheit), compared with warming of only 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.7 degrees Fahrenheit) during the past 40 years. Therefore, says Kininmonth, the only plausible explanation left for warming of the tropical ocean is a slowdown in ocean currents, those unseen arteries carrying the earth’s lifeblood of warmth away from the tropics. His suggested slowing mechanism is natural oscillations of the oceans, which he describes as the inertial and thermal flywheels of the climate system. Kininmonth observes that the overturning time of the deep-ocean thermohaline circulation is about 1,000 years. Oscillations of the thermohaline circulation would cause a periodic variation in the upwelling of cold seawater to the tropical surface layer warmed by solar absorption; reduced upwelling would lead to further heating of the tropical ocean, while enhanced upwelling would result in cooling. Such a pattern is consistent with the approximately 1,000-year interval between the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods, and again to current global warming.

Nearly 140 Scientific Papers Detail The Minuscule Effect CO2 Has On Earth’s Temperature

January 13, 2022

https://notrickszone.com/2022/01/13/nearly-140-scientific-papers-detail-the-minuscule-effect-co2-has-on-earths-temperature/ By Kenneth Richard We have updated our “Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity” scientific paper list with new papers added from 2021 and some newly discovered papers from the past. As of 2016 this list had only 50 papers on it (as indicated by the web address). In less than 6 years the list has grown to 137 (as of today). Click on the link for the full list. 135+ Papers Find Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity A few of the sample papers are shown here. Coe et al., 2021 (2XCO2 [400 to 800 ppm] = 0.5°C) The HITRAN database of gaseous absorption spectra enables the absorption of earth radiation at its current temperature of 288K to be accurately determined for each individual atmospheric constituent and also for the combined absorption of the atmosphere as a whole. From this data it is concluded that H2O is responsible for 29.4K of the 33K warming, with CO2 contributing 3.3K and CH4 and N2O combined just 0.3K. Climate sensitivity to future increases in CO2 concentration is calculated to be 0.50K, including the positive feedback effects of H2O, while climate sensitivities to CH4 and N2O are almost undetectable at 0.06K and 0.08K respectively. This result strongly suggests that increasing levels of CO2 will not lead to significant changes in earth temperature and that increases in CH4 and N2O will have very little discernable impact. Schildknecht, 2020 (2XCO2 = 0.5°C) Based on new radiative transfer numerical evaluations, we reconsider an argument presented by Schack in 1972 that says that saturation of the absorption of infrared radiation by carbon dioxide in the atmosphere sets in as soon as the relative concentration of carbon dioxide exceeds a lower limit of approximately 300 ppm. We provide a concise brief and explicit representation of the greenhouse effect of the earth’s atmosphere. We find an equilibrium climate sensitivity (temperature increase ∆T due to doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration) of ∆T ≃ 0.5°C. We elaborate on the consistency of these results on ∆T with results observationally obtained by satellite-based measurements of short-time radiation-flux versus surface-temperature changes. … The absorption reaches values close to 100% for a realistic CO2 content of 0.03%, it is concluded that any further increase of (anthropogenic) CO2 cannot lead to an appreciably stronger absorption of radiation, and consequently cannot affect the earth’s climate. … [T]he effect of an anthropogenic CO2 increase on the climate on earth is fairly negligible. Easterbrook, 2016  CO2 makes up only a tiny portion of the atmosphere (0.040%) and constitutes only 3.6% of the greenhouse effect. The atmospheric content of CO2 has increased only 0.008% since emissions began to soar after 1945.  Such a tiny increment of increase in CO2 cannot cause the 10°F increase in temperature predicted by CO2 advocates. Computer climate modelers build into their models a high water vapor component, which they claim is due to increased atmospheric water vapor caused by very small warming from CO2, and since water vapor makes up 90–95% of the greenhouse effect, they claim the result will be warming. The problem is that atmospheric water vapor has actually declined since 1948, not increased as demanded by climate models. If CO2 causes global warming, then CO2 should always precede warming when the Earth’s climate warms up after an ice age. However, in all cases, CO2 lags warming by ∼800 years. Shorter time spans show the same thing—warming always precedes an increase in CO2 and therefore it cannot be the cause of the warming. Davis, 2017 The correlation between ΔRFCO2 and linearly-detrended T across the Phanerozoic Eon is positive and discernible, but only 2.6% of variance in T is attributable to variance in ΔRFCO2. Of 68 correlation coefficients (half non-parametric) between ΔRFCO2 and T proxies encompassing all known major Phanerozoic climate transitions, 75.0% are non-discernible and 41.2% of discernible correlations are negative. Spectral analysis, auto- and cross-correlation show that proxies for T, atmospheric CO2 concentration and ΔRFCO2 oscillate across the Phanerozoic, and cycles of CO2 and ΔRFCO2 are antiphasic. A prominent 15 million-year CO2 cycle coincides closely with identified mass extinctions of the past, suggesting a pressing need for research on the relationship between CO2, biodiversity extinction, and related carbon policies. This study demonstrates that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration did not cause temperature change in the ancient climate.

Study: Doubling CO2 from present to 800 ppm has almost no warming effect – ‘CO2 is a bit player’ – ‘Almost undetectable’ impact

September 7, 2021

  https://junkscience.com/2021/09/study-doubling-co2-from-present-to-800-ppm-has-almost-no-warming-effect/ The effect of doubling CO2 from 400 ppm to 800 ppm plus feedbacks is 0.5°C, reports a new study using HITRAN data. This is only 0.04°C more than the warming from doubled CO2 from 200ppm to 400 ppm (0.46°C). Support JunkScience.com! # Full study here:  Click to access 10.11648.j.ijaos_.20210502.12.pdf

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