Search Results for “"extreme weather"”

Meteorologist: Extreme Weather Isn’t Worsening & Climate Deaths Are Declining

December 5, 2024

Wrong, The Conversation, Extreme Weather Isn’t Worsening and Deaths Are Declining By Anthony Watts A recent article from The Conversation (TC), titled “COP29: Climate change could kill millions and world leaders must work to limit fatalities,” warns climate change is likely to cause millions of deaths. This is false. A critical examination of empirical data reveals the opposite: deaths due to extreme weather events have significantly decreased over the past century, even as greenhouse gas emissions have risen. Historical data outlined in Climate at a Glance indicates a substantial decline in fatalities attributed to extreme weather. In the 1920s, such events caused approximately 485,000 deaths annually. By 2020, this number had plummeted to around 7,790 deaths per year, marking a reduction of over 98 percent. This dramatic decrease occurred during a period of significant global industrialization and increased greenhouse gas emissions, negating the assertion that climate change is leading to higher mortality rates. According to this Associated Press article, the reduction in weather-related deaths can be largely attributed to improved preparedness, early warning systems, and enhanced resilience. For instance, the United Nations has highlighted that better disaster management practices have led to fewer fatalities, even as the frequency and intensity of certain weather events have increased. Countries like India and Bangladesh have implemented effective measures that have significantly reduced deaths from cyclones and other extreme weather events. The Conversation’s claim that “climate change could kill millions” lacks empirical foundation. While it’s crucial to acknowledge and address the potential impacts of climate change, projections leading to alarmist conclusions often rely on worst-case climate model scenarios that fail to account for human adaptability and technological progress. Such narratives can lead to unnecessary fear and may divert attention from practical solutions that are already proving effective. It is also important to consider that cold-related deaths have historically outnumbered heat-related deaths, as seen in the figure below. Research shows that deaths associated with cold temperatures significantly exceed those related to heat, by almost 10 to 1. As global temperatures have modestly risen, the decrease in cold-related deaths has contributed to a net reduction in temperature-related mortality. This is confirmed by studies published in The Lancet, the Southern Medical Journal, and by the Centers for Disease Control and the National Health Statistics Reports: Cold is the biggest temperature related killer, not heat. These studies also indicate the slight warming we’ve seen over the past century has reduced overall mortality related to extreme temperatures. This positive trend should continue if the earth persists in modestly warming. Extreme weather can be deadly, and the potential risks associated with it should not be ignored. Still the evidence is clear, unlike what is implied in The Conversation article, extreme weather has not increased during the present period of climate change, and data clearly shows deaths resulting from both extreme weather events and non-optimum temperatures have declined dramatically. It is essential to ground discussions in empirical evidence and historical context. The Conversation’s motto is “Academic rigor, journalistic flair.” In this article’s coverage of climate change, The Conversation betrays the first part of its motto. The Conversation’s readers would be better served if the publication relied on facts to inform its work on climate change, not alarming flights of fancy.

Extreme Weather Expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. on ‘extreme weather event attribution’ – It’s ‘research performed explicitly to serve legal & political ends…promoted via press release’

October 7, 2024

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/weather-attribution-alchemy By Roger Pielke Jr. Weather Attribution Alchemy: A new THB series takes a close look at extreme weather event attribution, Part 1 Excerpt: In the aftermath of many high profile extreme weather events we see headlines like the following: Climate change made US and Mexico heatwave 35 times more likely — BBC Study Finds Climate Change Doubled Likelihood of Recent European Floods — NYT Severe Amazon Drought was Made 30 Times More Likely by Climate Change — Bloomberg For those who closely follow climate science and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), such headlines can be difficult to make sense of because neither the IPCC nor the underlying scientific literature comes anywhere close to making such strong and certain claims of attribution. How then might we understand such high profile claims? … Weather event attribution does not appear in the IPCC Glossary, however it does appear in the body of the AR6 report, where the IPCC explains that event attribution research seeks to “to attribute aspects of specific extreme weather and climate events to certain causes.” The IPCC continues: “Scientists cannot answer directly whether a particular event was caused by climate change,1 as extremes do occur naturally, and any specific weather and climate event is the result of a complex mix of human and natural factors. Instead, scientists quantify the relative importance of human and natural influences on the magnitude and/or probability of specific extreme weather events.” With this post I want to introduce three starting points for our discussions which will unfold over a series of posts in coming weeks and months. First, event attribution research is a form tactical science — research performed explicitly to serve legal and political ends. This is not my opinion, but has been openly stated on many occasions by the researchers who developed and perform event attribution research.2 Such research is not always subjected to peer review, and this is often by design as peer-review takes much longer than the news cycle. Instead, event attribution studies are generally promoted via press release. For instance, researchers behind the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative explain that one of their key motives in conducting such studies is, “increasing the ‘immediacy’ of climate change, thereby increasing support for mitigation.” WWA’s chief scientist, Friederike Otto, explains, “Unlike every other branch of climate science or science in general, event attribution was actually originally suggested with the courts in mind.” Another oft-quoted scientist who performs rapid attribution analyses, Michael Wehner, summarized their importance (emphasis in original) — “The most important message from this (and previous) analyses is that “Dangerous climate change is here now!” … Weather event attribution methodologies have been developed not just to feed media narratives or support general climate advocacy. Otto and others have been very forthright that the main function of such studies is to create a defensible scientific basis in support of lawsuits against fossil fuel companies — She explains the strategy in detail in this interview, From Extreme Event Attribution to Climate Litigation. As I recently argued, tactical science is not necessarily bad science, but it should elevate the degree of scrutiny that such analyses face, especially when they generally are not subjected to independent peer review. In this series I’ll apply some scrutiny and invite you to participate as we go along. Second, extreme event attribution was developed as a response to the failure of the IPCC’s conventional approach to detection and attribution (D&A) to reach high confidence in the detection of increasing trends in the frequency or intensity of most types of impactful extreme events — notably hurricanes, floods, drought, and tornadoes. … The underlying theory of change here appears to be that people must be fearful of climate change and thus need come to understand that it threatens their lives, not in the future, but today and tomorrow. If they don’t have that fear, the argument goes, then they will discount the threat and fail to support the right climate policies. Hence, from this perspective, the IPCC”s failure to reach strong claims of detection and attribution represents a political problem — a problem that can be rectified via the invention of extreme event attribution.

UN Sec. Gen. Guterres Calls for More Money to Stop Sea Level Rise – Meanwhile Hunga Tonga Drives Extreme Weather, not Humans

August 29, 2024

https://www.prweb.com/releases/guterres-calls-for-more-money-to-stop-sea-level-rise–meanwhile-hunga-tonga-drives-extreme-weather-not-humans-302233736.html By Friends of Science Society UN Sec. Gen. Antonio Guterres is reporting from Tonga, calling for more climate finance to stop sea level rise from threatening Small Island Nations in the lead up to climate summits, says Friends of Science Society. However, evidence shows that the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption is driving disparate weather extremes and will do so for years to come. CALGARY, Alberta, Aug. 29, 2024 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ — The issue of sea level rise is all over mainstream media prompted by this UN News release of Aug. 26, 2024, and the visit of UN Sec. Gen. Antonio Guterres to the island state of Tonga, says Friends of Science Society. As the one-day event alongside the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Sept. 25, 2024 “Climate Forward” meeting approaches, climate hysteria in the media is on the rise as well, says Friends of Science. Friends of Science Society notes that on March 29, 2023, the Small Island Nation of Vanuatu submitted a request to the UN General Assembly to establish national obligations to address climate change as the UNGA reported at the time that “The General Assembly today adopted by consensus a resolution requesting an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the obligations of States in respect of climate change.” Dr. John Harper, FGSA,FGAC, PGeol., explained that the more likely reason small island residents feel threatened is due to erosion by the sea, which looks like sea level rise to individuals, but empirically is not proven. Guterres issued a climate “SOS” from the island of Tonga calling for the phase-out of fossil fuels to stop the climate crisis which he claims is “entirely caused by humanity” as reported by The Guardian, Aug. 27, 2024. Guterres ignores natural variability of climate. As reported in The Conversation of May 29, 2024, the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption of Jan. 15, 2022, will be driving unusual weather patterns for perhaps a decade. “Hunga Tonga produced little smoke, but a lot of water vapour: 100–150 million tonnes, or the equivalent of 60,000 Olympic swimming pools.” The heat of the eruption transformed sea water into water vapour. The eruption shot it up into the stratosphere. Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas, says Friends of Science Society, referring to their Climate Change Science Essay. The current media narrative suggests there may be further news on the UNGA’s initiative with the ICJ in this regard in September at the various climate summits. However, you can’t blame humans for the impacts of Hunga Tonga, says Friends of Science. Climate activists saw the UNGA initiative as a step forward toward ‘climate justice’ – a nebulous concept that seems to encompass ‘climate action’ like that of “Just Stop Oil,” wherein protestors trample on rule of law while claiming to “Tell the Whole Truth” on climate. For conspiring to create societal havoc, several Just Stop Oil protestors have been jailed in the UK, as discussed in this Friends of Science video. Preceding “Climate Forward” will be “Summit of the Future” (Sept. 20-23, 2024) and New York Climate Week (Sept. 22-29, 2024) approach, Guterres is calling for more climate funding to stop sea level rise, which he claims threatens Small Island Nations. In a 2016 interview for Friends of Science, Dr. John Harper, FGSA,FGAC, PGeol., former director of the Geological Survey of Canada, explained that the more likely reason small island residents feel threatened is due to erosion by the sea, which looks like sea level rise to individuals, but empirically is not proven. In fact, most small islands in the Pacific have shown empirical and statistically significant growth in their land areas. The authors of this paper by Sengupta et al (2021) used photos and satellite images of 104 atoll islands of Micronesia in the equatorial Pacific Ocean to show that the islands increased in area by 3% since the mid-20th century. Using satellite images of 221 atoll island in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, this paper by Holdaway et al (2021) shows that their total area increased by 6.1% between 2000 to 2017; however, part of the increase was due to land reclamation. The psychological threat of sea level rise has been exploited in the past by Guterres and TIME magazine in the June 13, 2019, edition, with a cover picture of Guterres in the ocean in a suit, with ocean water rising over the height of his knees. Meanwhile, sea level gauges worldwide show a best fit rate of rate of sea level rise of 2.1 mm per year at 2020. CLINTEL, the climate intelligence network of some 1944 scientists and scholars, has shown there is no climate emergency; we DO have time. Friends of Science Society has just issued a report titled: “At Last! The Costs and Benefits of Canada’s Climate Plan.” AboutFriends of Science Society is an independent group of earth, atmospheric and solar scientists, engineers, and citizens that is celebrating its 22nd year of offering climate science insights. After a thorough review of a broad spectrum of literature on climate change, Friends of Science Society has concluded that the sun is the main driver of climate change, not carbon dioxide (CO2).Friends of Science SocietyPO Box 61172 RPO KensingtonCalgary AB T2N 4S6CanadaToll-free Telephone: 1-888-789-9597Web: friendsofscience.orgE-mail: contact(at)friendsofscience(dot)orgWeb: climatechange101.ca Media Contact Michelle Stirling, Friends of Science Society, 8887899597, [email protected], https://friendsofscience.org/

MIT & Princeton Scientists: ‘More carbon dioxide cannot cause catastrophic global warming or more extreme weather’ – Net Zero Policies Will Have Disastrous Effects on People Worldwide

August 21, 2024

Richard Lindzen Professor of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Emeritus Massachusetts Institute of Technology William Happer Professor of Physics, Emeritus, Princeton University Net Zero Policies Will Have a Trivial Effect on Temperature, But Disastrous Effects on People Worldwide July 19, 2024 The United States and countries worldwide are vigorously pursuing regulations and subsidies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to Net Zero by 2050 on the assumption, best stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that the “evidence is clear that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main driver of climate change” and is “responsible for more than 50% of the change.” We are career physicists with a special expertise in radiation physics, which describes how CO2 affects heat flow in Earth’s atmosphere. The physics of carbon dioxide is that CO2’s ability to warm the planet is determined by its ability to absorb heat, which decreases rapidly as CO2’s concentration in the atmosphere increases. This scientific fact about CO2 changes everything about the common view of CO2 and climate change. Carbon Dioxide is Now a Weak Greenhouse Gas. At today’s CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of approximately 420 parts per million, additional amounts of CO2 have little ability to absorb heat and therefore is now a weak greenhouse gas. At higher concentrations in the future, the ability of future increases to warm the planet will be even smaller. This also means that the common assumption that carbon dioxide is “the main driver of climate change” is scientifically false. In short, more carbon dioxide cannot cause catastrophic global warming or more extreme weather. Neither can greenhouse gases of methane or nitrous oxide, the levels of which are so small that they are irrelevant to climate. Referring to additional atmospheric CO2 as “carbon pollution” is complete nonsense. More CO2 does no harm. Quite the contrary, it does two good things for humanity: (1) It provides a slight and beneficial increase in temperature, much less than natural fluctuations. (2) It creates more food for people worldwide, which we cover further below. Implications First. Net Zero Efforts Will Have a Trivial Effect on Temperature. More of the atmospheric greenhouse gas, CO2, will increase temperature, but only slightly. How changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases affect radiation transfer are described by precise physical equations that have never failed to describe observations of the real world. We applied these formulas to the massive efforts by the U. S. and worldwide to reduce CO2 emissions to Net Zero by 2050 in a paper that we recommend to those with a technical background.[1] We show that all the efforts to achieve Net Zero emissions of carbon dioxide, if fully implemented, will have a trivial effect on temperature: United States Net Zero by 2050 — only avoids a temperature increase of 2/100 °F (0. 02 °F) with no positive feedback, and only 6/100°F (0.06 °F) with positive feedback of 4 that is typically built into the models of the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Worldwide Net Zero by 2050 — only avoids a temperature increase of 13/100 (0.13 °F), or 50/100 °F (0.50 °F) with a factor of 4 positive feedback. These numbers are trivial, but the cost of achieving them would be disastrous to people worldwide. Second. Net Zero Policies Will Be Disastrous for People Worldwide. In the United States and worldwide, Net Zero regulations and subsidies will have disastrous effects. Chief among them would be the proposed elimination of fossil fuels, which would mean doing away with internal combustion engines for transportation and other uses, the power plants that provide most of the world’s electricity, gas space heaters and cooking stoves and the feedstocks for nitrogen fertilizers that enable the feeding of nearly half the global population. The resulting economic devastation would include massive job losses, which already has occurred in places where Net Zero subsidies and regulations have diverted capital away from investments into productive assets and into ineffective technologies such as wind and solar energy. Those hostile to fossil fuels ignore overwhelming evidence that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide from their combustion has significantly greened Earth and boosted crop production. In addition, various countries will require electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps and electric appliances be purchased. They will require companies to report information on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emissions. However, since more carbon dioxide causes trivial and beneficial warming, this data is immaterial, misleading and very expensive. It should not be required. Third. More Carbon Dioxide Means More Food. Contrary to common reporting, more carbon dioxide increases the amount of food available to people worldwide, and is particularly helpful in drought-stricken areas. Doubling carbon dioxide to 800 ppm, for example. will increase global food supplies by approximately 60%[2]. Thus, carbon dioxide emissions should not be reduced, but increased to provide more food worldwide. Moreover, there is no risk of catastrophic global warming or extreme weather because carbon dioxide is now a weak greenhouse gas. Reducing carbon dioxide emissions will reduce the amount of food available to people worldwide and produce no benefit to the climate. Fourth. Fossil Fuels Must Not Be Eliminated. Net Zero requires that fossil fuels be eliminated because they account for about 90% of human-induced CO2 emissions. However, the elimination of fossil fuels will have no effect on the climate since carbon dioxide is now a weak greenhouse gas. The use of fossil fuels must not be eliminated and should be expanded because they (1) provide more carbon dioxide which makes more food, (2) are used to make nitrogen fertilizer that enables the feeding of about half of the world’s population, and (3) provide reliable and inexpensive energy for people everywhere, especially for the two-thirds of the world’s population without adequate access to electricity.[3] Conclusion. All Net Zero carbon dioxide regulations and subsidies in the United States and worldwide must be stopped as soon as possible to avoid disastrous effects on Americans, America, and people worldwide, especially in developing countries. ———————————- [1] R. Lindzen, W. Happer and W. van Wijngaarden, Net Zero Avoided Temperature Increase, (Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase – CO2 Coalition; http://arxiv.org/abs/2406.07392) [2] R. Lindzen, W. Happer and S. Koonin, “Fossil Fuels and Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Climate Science” (April 2024), p. 3, Lindzen-Happer-Koonin-climate-science-4-24.pdf (co2coalition.org) [3] R. Bryce, “Powering the Unplugged: Overcoming the Barriers to Electrification in the Developing World” (2023). Download Net Zero Policies Will Have a Trivial Effect on Temperature, But Disastrous Effects on People Worldwide here

British Medical Journal: ‘Climate change has serious implications for children’s brain health’ – ‘Developing brains of children are particularly susceptible to…rising global temps, extreme weather events’

August 6, 2024

If Climate Change affects poor children’s brains, then the answer is fossil fuels and cheap air conditioning If Climate Change affects poor children’s brains, then the answer is fossil fuels and cheap air conditioning By Jo Nova It’s as if they’re trying to guilt trip people into installing some solar panels and catching the bus. Climate Change, it seems, is linked to brain damage in children. Specifically poor children. It leaves them with lasting effects on brain development and particularly “white matter”. (And what kind of evil sod are you if you won’t buy an EV to save the brain of a kid in Barking & Dagenham? “Do it for the children!”) The editors of the British Medical Journal review many recent papers talking about the dire situation: Climate change has serious implications for children’s brain health British Medical Journal Emerging evidence suggests that factors related to climate change, such as ambient heat exposure, can affect the brain.5 Heat stress has been linked to disruptions in neurodevelopment, slow cognitive and emotional functioning, long term learning loss and memory deficits, worsening of neurological and mental disorders, and increased permeability of the blood-brain barrier.6 Early exposure to extreme weather events, including antenatal exposure, has also been associated with an increased risk of anxiety, depression, attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, educational underperformance, diminished self-regulation, and psychiatric disorders in later life.78 They call for “Evidence Based Policy” and talk about “interventions” and screening, and public health campaigns, but what they don’t say are the words “fossil fuel” or “cheap electricity”. If the worst effects are found in children in poor socioeconomic groups, the answer surely is that the poor need access to air conditioning. Making the world a tenth of a degree cooler in 100 years (if that were even possible) isn’t going to be much use to them. What if reckless experiments with electricity grids are causing brain damage and mental health issues with children? Would anybody care if pushing the price of electricity up was hurting reading scores and neurodevelopment now? Oh. It’s not just heat, it’s cold too: Weird connection found between temperature and brain development by Eric W. Dolan, PsyPost, July 1, 2024 The study [by Granes et al] found that exposure to both cold and heat during early life was associated with significant changes in the microstructure of white matter. Specifically, cold exposure from the third month of pregnancy to the fifteenth month of life and heat exposure from the ninth month of life to 2.6 years of age were linked to higher global MD values at ages 9 to 12 years. Higher MD values indicate poorer white matter microstructure, which can affect neural connectivity and cognitive function. Let’s give them air conditioning and heating too. “It was interesting to see that there were some differences in the effects when we compared children living in neighborhoods with lower socioeconomic status vs those who were living in neighborhoods with a higher socioeconomic status, as we could see more effects in the first group,” Granés said. “Our hypothesis/interpretation of these findings is that these differences could be explained by poorer housing conditions or energy poverty (but this should be further investigated).” Of course, it’s quite possible the study has nothing to do with climate change, or even temperature: While this study provides valuable insights, it has some limitations. One key limitation is the lack of indoor temperature data. Since children, especially infants, spend significant time indoors, indoor temperatures could differ significantly from outdoor estimates, potentially affecting the accuracy of the findings. Call me a skeptic that temperature could have such a detrimental effect on mammals that evolved in far harsher and more variable climates than anything we deal with today. Indeed, both cold and heat exposure are beneficial in short doses — almost like we evolved to deal with exercise in the heat and fishing in the cold. I make the point about air conditioning because it’s Kyrptonite to a pack of toady fashion-queens pretending to care about poor children. If they did care, they’d campaign for cheap electricity. Airconditioners already save 20,000 lives in USA each year. And they reduce indoor air pollution too. Burn oil, and save the children! REFERENCES Climate change has serious implications for children’s brain health, BMJ 2024;386:q1588, doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.q1588 (Published 22 July 2024) Granés, L., Essers, E., Ballester, J. et al. Early life cold and heat exposure impacts white matter development in children Nat. Clim. Chang. 14, 760–766 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02027-w

UK Independent: ‘Climate change is hitting vulnerable Indonesian trans sex workers’ – Media claims ‘extreme weather linked to climate change’ is affecting transgender prostitutes’ ‘income’

April 5, 2024

UK Independent via Reuters – April 3, 2024: Joya Patiha, a 43-year-old Indonesian transgender woman, first started to notice that changing weather patterns in the mountain-ringed city of Bandung were affecting her income as a sex worker a decade ago. The rainy season was lasting longer across the West Java province, winds were stronger and in some particularly bad years Patiha lost up to 80% of her earnings. Trans women like Patiha are among the most affected by extreme weather linked to climate change, as well as suffering disproportionately when disasters strike. “No one is coming out during the longer rainy season,” said Patiha. “It is very hard to make money during that unpredictable weather.” …

Indonesia is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and trans women, who tend to face more stigma and marginalisation than trans men or other LGBTQ+ Indonesians, are also among those hardest hit by extreme weather. …

Arif Budi Darmawan, a researcher at the Bandung-based Resilience Development Initiative said: “Climate change makes the vulnerable even more vulnerable.” … The group’s coordinator Rikky, who asked that his first name only be used, said unpredictable weather also led to “illness, debt, stress, conflicts with local residents, and heightened levels of violence”.

Extreme Weather Expert Pielke Jr. rips Wash Post claim of hottest ‘world record’ ocean temp – ‘No it is not a world record. It’s not even highest at that station in past 6 years’

July 27, 2023

Science journalism is broken No it is not a world recordIt’s not even the highest at that station in the past 6 years When did journalists and editors stop doing journalism and start turning incorrect but viral Tweets into headlines? Recipe for misinformation pic.twitter.com/GIKspjOdmC — The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) July 26, 2023

No Evidence That Extreme Weather on the Rise: A Look at the Past – Hurricanes

May 22, 2023

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2023/5/15/no-evidence-that-extreme-weather-on-the-rise-a-look-at-the-past-1-hurricanes-129 By Physicist Dr. Ralph B. Alexander The popular but mistaken belief that today’s weather extremes are more common and more intense because of climate change is becoming deeply embedded in the public consciousness, thanks to a steady drumbeat of articles in the mainstream media and pronouncements by luminaries such as President Biden in the U.S., Pope Francis and the UN Secretary-General. But the belief is wrong and more a perception than reality. An abundance of scientific evidence demonstrates that the frequency and severity of floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves and wildfires are not increasing, and may even be declining in some cases. That so many people think otherwise reflects an ignorance of, or an unwillingness to look at, our past climate. Collective memories of extreme weather are short-lived. In this and subsequent posts, I’ll present examples of extreme weather over the past century or so that matched or exceeded anything we’re experiencing in the present-day world. I’ll start with hurricanes. The deadliest U.S. hurricane in recorded history struck Galveston, Texas in 1900, killing an estimated 8,000 to 12,000 people. Lacking a protective seawall built later, the thriving port was completely flattened (photo on right) by winds of 225 km per hour (140 mph) and a storm surge exceeding 4.6 meters (15 feet). With almost no automobiles, the hapless populace could flee only on foot or by horse and buggy. Reported the Nevada Daily Mail at the time: Residents [were] crushed to death in crumbling buildings or drowned in the angry waters. Hurricanes have been a fact of life for Americans in and around the Gulf of Mexico since Galveston and before. The death toll has come down over time with improvements in planning and engineering to safeguard structures, and the development of early warning systems to allow evacuation of threatened communities. Nevertheless, the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes has been essentially unchanged since 1851, as seen in the following figure. The apparent heightened hurricane activity over the last 20 years, particularly in 2005 and 2020, simply reflects improvements in observational capabilities since 1970 and is unlikely to be a true climate trend, say a team of hurricane experts. As you can see, the incidence of major North Atlantic hurricanes in recent decades is no higher than that in the 1950s and 1960s. Ironically, the earth was actually cooling during that period, unlike today. Of notable hurricanes during the active 1950s and 1960s, the deadliest was 1963’s Hurricane Flora that cost nearly as many lives as the Galveston Hurricane. Flora didn’t strike the U.S. but made successive landfalls in Tobago, Haiti and Cuba (path shown in photo on left), reaching peak wind speeds of 320 km per hour (200 mph). In Haiti a record 1,450 mm (57 inches) of rain fell – comparable to what Hurricane Harvey dumped on Houston in 2017 – resulting in landslides which buried whole towns and destroyed crops. Even heavier rain, up to 2,550 mm (100 inches), devastated Cuba and 50,000 people were evacuated from the island, according to the Sydney Morning Herald. Hurricane Diane in 1955 walloped the North Carolina coast, then moved north through Virginia and Pennsylvania before ending its life as a tropical storm off the coast of New England. Although its winds had dropped from 190 km per hour (120 mph) to less than 55 km per hour (35 mph) by then, it spawned rainfall of 50 cm (20 inches) over a two-day period there, causing massive flooding and dam failures (photo to right). An estimated total of 200 people died. In North Carolina, Diane was but one of three hurricanes that struck the coast in just two successive months that year. In 1960, Hurricane Donna moved through Florida with peak wind speeds of 285 km per hour (175 mph) after pummeling the Bahamas and Puerto Rico. A storm surge of up to 4 meters (13 feet) combined with heavy rainfall caused extensive flooding all across the peninsula (photo on left). On leaving Florida, Donna struck North Carolina, still as a Category 3 hurricane (top wind speed 180 km per hour or 110 mph), and finally Long Island and New England. NOAA (the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) calls Donna “one of the all-time great hurricanes.” Florida has been a favorite target of hurricanes for more than a century. The next figure depicts the frequency by decade of all Florida landfalling hurricanes and major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) since the 1850s. While major Florida hurricanes show no trend over 170 years, the trend in hurricanes overall is downward – even in a warming world. Hurricane Camille in 1969 first made landfall in Cuba, leaving 20,000 people homeless. It then picked up speed, smashing into Mississippi as a Category 5 hurricane with wind speeds of approximately 300 km per hour (185 mph); the exact speed is unknown because the hurricane’s impact destroyed all measuring instruments. Camille generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico over 21 meters (70 feet) high, beaching two ships (photo on right), and caused the Mississippi River to flow backwards. A total of 257 people lost their lives, the Montreal Gazette reporting that workers found: a ton of bodies … in trees, under roofs, in bushes, everywhere. These are just a handful of hurricanes from our past, all as massive and deadly as last year’s Category 5 Hurricane Ian which deluged Florida with a storm surge as high as Galveston’s and rainfall up to 685 mm (27 inches); 156 were killed. Hurricanes are not on the rise today.

Media’s Constant Linking of ‘Extreme Weather’ to Climate Change is ‘Intellectually Dishonest Says Top U.S. Meteorologist

May 5, 2023

https://dailysceptic.org/2023/05/04/medias-constant-linking-of-extreme-weather-to-climate-change-is-intellectually-dishonest-says-top-u-s-meteorologist/ BY CHRIS MORRISON One of the top Western U.S. broadcast meteorologists hit out recently at “clickbait” stories that demonised every major weather event. Don Daly, often referred to as ‘Wyoming’s weatherman’ said that politicians, media and environmental group’s constant mantra that every national weather event is somehow the result of human activity, “is intellectually dishonest”. Most climate news stories were “heavy in anecdotes and light in any data”, said Day, who syndicates to over 70 stations. According to the report in the online publication Cowboy State Daily, climate clickbait stories follow a formula that includes claims of impending doom, reference to non-atmospheric scientists, cherry-picked or misleading data, and a suggestion that we all change our ways and ‘do what we say’. Day says that reporters will often interview people who offer personal anecdotes, and then try to frame their stories as another sign of man-made climate change. Ignored by most media are stories that do not fit the narrative such as the last tornado season, that was one of the least active. The role of the media in driving a political narrative around climate is also of concern to the science writer and former economics professor Roger Pielke Jr., who noted last month that climate journalism has evolved from reporting news to narrative. “I’m calling out climate journalism because I am seeing its pathological effects on public views, especially among young people, on the research community and in policy discussions, including political advocacy. Climate is too important to be just another cul-de-sac of identity politics,” he said. According to Pielke, it has become fundamental to the climate agenda to associate every extreme event, happening every day, with climate change. “There are studies to cherry-pick, quotable experts and a new cottage industry of rapid event attribution studies. Extreme weather is no longer about the weather,” he observed. This need to feed the climate beast leads to a knock-on effect of creating incentives for researchers to produce studies with links to climate – “no matter how tenuous or trivial”. As regular readers will recall, we have frequently noted that the switch to demonising bad weather has occurred because global warming ran out of steam about 25 years ago. According to end April data, the UAH satellite record shows a current pause of nearly nine years in length. State weather services have needed little encouragement to run with the single weather narrative to help promote the collectivist Net Zero project. The U.K. Met Office is proud of its new claimed temperature record of 40.3°C from last July 19th, despite doubts being raised about the fact it lasted for only 60 seconds and was taken halfway down a military airbase runway. At times, broadcast weather maps in the U.K. turning orange and vivid red during the summer recall the TV mock Latin weatherwoman on The Fast Show, and her constant comic catchphrase, “Scorchio!”. In Australia, it appears that the Bureau of Meteorology has been claiming recent one-second heat records following the switch from mercury to highly accurate electronic sensors. In the United States, local media outlets broadcasting weather information have been targeted by Climate Central, a green agitprop operation funded by many Left-wing foundations such as the Schmidt, Grantham and Hewlett funds. A sub-group called Climate Matters aims to bring climate change into weathercasting “via local voices highly trusted by Americans everywhere”. Over the last decade, it has produced a “weather underground” said to be a “coast-to coast network of TV weathercasters who believe that educating their audiences about global warming is as crucial as telling them to bring an umbrella”. Kaitlyn McGrath, a meteorologist at WUSA9, helpfully reveals: “To a lot of our viewers, it’s lost on them how much Climate Matters really is doing. But it is so far from lost on us”. In a recent essay on climate sceptic Dr. Judith Curry’s blog, David Young draws connections between the politicisation of science during the Covid pandemic and climate change. “The complete playbook that made climate science’s culture deteriorate was deployed to Covid science and epidemiology, making meaningful scientific debate virtually impossible,” he writes. In the U.S., narrative-driven media consists of little more than ideologically-driven – and partially state-controlled – purveyors of carefully screened information. This invariably supports the views of elites in the West – “and the public is becoming more and more convinced that they cannot be trusted,” says Young. Young draws attention to the growth in recent years of a large ‘disinformation’ industry, a category he describes as largely meaningless with no well-defined content. Over the last 30 years, “realistic” scientists have been cancelled, and now political operatives, activists, the media and often the deep state and some scientists, “compete to see who can be in the forefront of rounding up the witches who spread disinformation and burning them”. Young writes that many of the tactics of the disinformation complex are rationalised as being necessary to combat threats to democracy. But he argues that the war on ‘disinformation’ is itself a threat to the democratic process, noting the view of the great Covid sceptic Professor John Ioannidis that democracy cannot function if the public is fed a “constant diet of half-truths and even disinformation, with dissenting voices systematically excluded”. Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.

Definitive Guide to Extreme Weather: No trends or declining trends in hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, droughts, heat waves, disaster losses, wildfires – All peer-reviewed & official sources – By Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.

March 25, 2023

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1625530996958572545.html The Honest Broker by Roger Pielke Jr. Feb 14, 2023 • 18 tweets 🧵 What the media won’t tell you about extreme weather and its impactsHere is a thread of some of the figures I’ve posted in recent months about extreme weather that I have never seen in legacy media reportingAll peer-reviewed and official sources . . . Floods IPCC finds no trends in flooding globally Did you know that flood impacts in the US as a proportion of wealth are down >70% over 80 years? Huge news, good news!But don’t tell anyone 🥸 rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-… SERIES: What the media won’t tell you about . . . Floods Let’s take a look at what the IPCC and recent research actually sayshttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-the-media-wont-tell-you-3b0 # Drought The IPCC finds no long-term trends in meteorological or hydrological drought In Western Europe specifically there is no trend in drought over >150 years rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-… SERIES: What the media won’t tell you about . . . Drought in Western and Central Europe Let’s take a look at what the IPCC and recent research actually say https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-the-media-wont-tell-you # US heat waves The US government’s official metric for heat waves comes from a paper I co-authored more than 20 years ago. It shows an increase since ~1960s but a decrease since <1930s rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med… SERIES: What the media won’t tell you about . . . U.S. heat waves Let’s take a look at what the IPCC and official data really say https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about-9f9 US heat waves During the past 50 years, when heat waves have increased, mortality from extreme heat has fallen pretty much everywhere in the US rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…That is good news! Let’s keep it up SERIES: What the media won’t tell you about . . . U.S. heat waves Let’s take a look at what the IPCC and official data really say https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about-9f9 # US (mainland) hurricanes IPCC, WMO, UNNCA are all in agreement No upwards trends in landfalling hurricanes, including the strongest storms. Have you ever seen these graphs in the media (aside from Bill Nye and his sharpie;) rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med… SERIES: What the media won’t tell you about . . . hurricanes Let’s take a look at what the IPCC and official data really sayhttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about # US disaster costs As a proportion of GDP US disaster costs have gone down More good news! rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/billion-doll… “Billion Dollar Disasters” are a National EmbarrassmentYou won’t find a more obvious example of bad science from the U.S. governmenthttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/billion-dollar-disasters-are-a-national European disaster costs As a proportion of GDP European disaster losses have gone down Even more good news! rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/making-sense… SERIES: Making Sense of Trends in Disaster Losses Part 2: Normalized disaster losses in Europe 1995 to 2019https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/making-sense-of-trends-in-disaster-ced Global weather and climate disaster losses As a proportion of GDP global disaster (weather and climate, but also overall) have gone down Great news! rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe… Don’t Believe the Hype Global Disasters in 2022, a Preliminary Assessment https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe-the-hype Disasters This century the number of disasters tracked by EM-DAT has not increased, in fact down a bit Important to understand why so that progress with respect to the Sendai Framework can be maintained! rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe… ] Don’t Believe the Hype Global Disasters in 2022, a Preliminary Assessmenthttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe-the-hype # US tornadoes Reports of the strongest US tornadoes (EF3+) which cause ~70% of death and destruction are down in the long and short terms rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med… What the media won’t tell you about . . . Tornadoes Let’s take a look at what the data and science actually say https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about-3fe Damage from tornadoes supports the data on falling numbers of the strongest tornadoes Both inflation-adjusted and normalized tornado losses have decreased rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med… What the media won’t tell you about . . . Tornadoes Let’s take a look at what the data and science actually say https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about-3fe Normalized US hurricane losses As we would expect with no up-trend in US landfalls there is no trend in normalized US hurricane losses since 1900 rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/pielkes-week… Pielke’s Weekly Memo #19A sneak peak at normalized U.S. hurricane losses 1900 to 2022 https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/pielkes-weekly-memo-19 Global hurricane landfalls Lots of ups and downs over 70+ years but no overall trend rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac… Just the Facts on Global HurricanesMore storms? Fewer but more intense? More landfalls? No, No and Nohttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-facts-on-global-hurricanes Global hurricane energy More ups and down but no trend since 1980 rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac… Just the Facts on Global Hurricanes More storms? Fewer but more intense? More landfalls? No, No and No https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-facts-on-global-hurricanes Global hurricane energy per storm No trend since 1980 Storms are not getting stronger but fewerrogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac… Just the Facts on Global HurricanesMore storms? Fewer but more intense? More landfalls? No, No and Nohttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-facts-on-global-hurricanes Everything you find in this thread Everything Is consistent with what has been reported in the IPCC & found in official data and the peer-reviewed literatureShhh … don’t tell anyone How to Understand the New IPCC Report: Part 2, Extreme Events Contrary to what you’ve been reading, the massive new IPCC report offers grounds for optimism on climate science and policyhttps://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/how-to-understand-the-new-ipcc-report-1e3 If you want to understand what the science of extreme weather, climate and disasters actually says, please sign up to The Honest Broker Amazing to me that some of the things I write about you cannot find anywhere else So I’m not gonna stop

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