By Steven E. Koonin – Mr. Koonin is a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution and author of “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.”
The Right Way for Trump to Ditch the Paris Agreement
Trump plans to withdraw from it. In doing so, he can show the world a better way to reduce emissions.
Excerpt: Donald Trump intends to leave the Paris Agreement on climate change again. He could do so in a way that benefits not only the U.S. but also the rest of the world and the climate.
The Paris Agreement has foundered on fundamentals. Despite years of effort, global greenhouse-gas emissions continue to increase. Developed countries are falling short of their aggressive emission-reduction goals, and their economies can’t handle the costs and disruptions of rapid decarbonization. Developing countries are focused on securing a “green climate fund” of $1.3 trillion a year from the rich countries, as discussed at last month’s United Nations climate summit. Never mind that developed countries can’t even afford their own green efforts.
Mr. Trump should highlight these failings and the absent evidence of a “climate emergency” as part of an explanation for the country’s exit from the agreement. Providing this rationale would create a moment for European countries to admit that the climate emperor has no clothes, giving them license to confront the awkward and obvious truths they’ve been avoiding for years.
…
Washington’s goal should be energy for all. Providing affordable and reliable energy, no matter the source, would do far more good for humanity than discouraging fossil fuels based on fear of some vague climate catastrophe. U.S. leadership on this front would counter China’s influence in the Third World through its Belt and Road Initiative. American efforts would increase demand for U.S. energy and energy-technology exports, setting the stage for the future deployment of cost-effective clean technology around the globe.
Renewed commitment to developing this technology could be the final element of Mr. Trump’s productive withdrawal. Creating affordable, reliable, emissions-lite energy technology is essential. Small modular fission reactors and better batteries are particularly promising.
But we shouldn’t subsidize or mandate the deployment of immature or ineffective technologies—such as offshore wind farms, residential heat pumps and electric cars that nobody wants. Rather, Europe and the U.S. should follow Xi Jinping’s energy-transition plan for China: “Build the new before discarding the old.”
It will take a year for a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement to take effect. Mr. Trump could use that time to highlight the agreement’s failures, plan a global “energy for all” program and strengthen efforts to develop cleaner tech. Doing so would show how futile and destructive the world’s current efforts to reduce emissions really are, and chart a healthier path for the planet.
Mr. Koonin is a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution and author of “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.”
