https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1353012739736817666.html
Despite breathless climate reporting about ever-increasing fires
US fires burn 5-10x less today
Even with extreme warming, area burned will stay about same across century
Climate does increase burned area,
but zoning and forest management much more important
Refs in thread pic.twitter.com/pPd017JDBD
— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) January 23, 2021
Fire data 1960-2020 from nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireI…, plus NIFC 2020 estimate from Jan 2 2021
1926-1970 from Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, L48-52
1900-2000 from Fire history and the global carbon budget, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.…
experts said yesterday, blaming most on land management and development.
… 25% …from climate change, and “75% is the way we manage landseenews.net/stories/106202…
Is the data back to 1926 credible? Yes, from US Historical Statistics, based on individual year national reporting (p554)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
At time, fires were well-known
Here US deputy of Forest Service: “in recent years fires have burned about 40,000,000 acres annually— an area greater than that of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hamp shire, Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia combined.”
Here is Obama-era National 2010 Sustainability report using the burn data back to 1926, p113
Sargent map from 1880, in report from 1884, definite underestimate (because many didn’t report back)
insert, p491
4.5-12% of California area likely used to burn *every* year before 1800
2020, the biggest burn year in the records, burned 4% of California (1.7Mha/4.25M acres)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/
New York Times 1781, “the smoke was so dense that many persons thought the day of judgment had come”
EPA burn estimate with RCP8.5 (unrealistically enormous coal-based future) and RCP4.5 (emissions reduced by 82% below RCP8.5 by 2100, 62% across total emissions, 2020-2100)
I show 11-year trailing averages of their 5-model averages
Notice, that over next 80 years, fire burden will shift with some areas seeing more fire and others less
17x more homes in high-risk areas from 1940-2050
from sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
US forest area has not decreased since 1900, actually slightly increased
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https://twitter.com/ncdave4life/status/1353326353861517313
