Shock Epic Fails: The decade that blew up energy predictions – USA energy boom, CO2 emissions drop defied predictions! See the charts!

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1 big thing: The decade that blew up energy predictions

A utility pole with power lines diverging into arrows pointing in opposite directions
Illustration: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

America’s energy sources, like booming oil and crumbling coal, have defied projections and historical precedents over the last decade, Axios’ Amy Harder and Andrew Witherspoon write for her year-end “Harder Line” column.

  • Why it matters: Change can happen rapidly and unexpectedly, even in an industry known to move gradually and predictably.

With a new decade upon us, let’s look back at the last one’s biggest, most surprising energy changes.

  • These five charts show U.S. Energy Information Administration projections from a decade ago, with current EIA data to show what actually happened.

⛽ 1.

EIA actual and projected data. Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

🛢️ 2.

EIA actual and projected data. Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

🔥 3.

EIA actual and projected data. Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

⚡ 4.

EIA actual and projected data. (Rooftop solar was included in the renewables data starting in 2014.) Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

🏭 5.

EIA actual and projected data. Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

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