Update: ‘Conning the Public’: Scientists Accuse NASA/NOAA of ‘Misleading’, ‘Deception’ & ‘Lying’ About ‘Hottest Year’ Claim – Concede 2014 probably not ‘hottest year’


By: - Climate DepotJanuary 18, 2015 5:57 PM with 35 comments

Climate Depot Special Report

Statement by Marc Morano, publisher of Climate Depot & Former Staff of U.S. Senate Environment & Public Works Committee.: “The Feds are conning the public on 2014 being the “hottest year”. We now know that both NASA and NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) knew their ‘hottest year’ claims would not hold up to scientific scrutiny. But both agencies chose instead to loudly push the global warming narrative to a willing and compliant news media.

“The ‘hottest year’ claims had already been exposed as statistically meaningless and a confirmation of the 18 year plus temperature ‘pause’. See: Scientists balk at ‘hottest year’ claims: Ignores Satellites showing 18 Year ‘Pause’ – ‘We are arguing over the significance of hundredths of a degree’ – The ‘Pause’ continues

“The shameless activism shown by our federal scientists — particularly NASA GISS head Gavin Schmidt — may warrant further inspection by the new GOP Congress.” (End Morano statement. – Morano is producer and host of the upcoming climate documentary Climate Hustle. www.ClimateHustle.com)

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UK Daily Mail: NASA climate scientists: We said 2014 was the warmest year on record… but we’re only 38% sure we were right – ‘NASA press release failed to mention this’ – Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’ – But it emerged that GISS’s analysis is subject to a margin of error – Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all – The Nasa climate scientists who claimed 2014 set a new record for global warmth last night admitted they were only 38 per cent sure this was true. Yet the Nasa press release failed to mention this, as well as the fact that the alleged ‘record’ amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous ‘warmest year’, of just two-hundredths of a degree – or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C – several times as much. As a result, GISS’s director Gavin Schmidt has now admitted Nasa thinks the likelihood that 2014 was the warmest year since 1880 is just 38 per cent. However, when asked by this newspaper whether he regretted that the news release did not mention this, he did not respond.

(Background on NASA’s Gavin Schmidt here. – Meet NASA’s New ‘James Hansen’ – Gavin Schmidt – the man who hates debate & loses when he does debate – He has been criticized by prominent scientists for ‘erroneously communicating the reality of the how climate system is actually behaving’)

Email: [email protected]

NASA’s Gavin Schmidt

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NOAA, NASA quietly conceded: 2014 was probably not the warmest year on record – Former Harvard Physicist Dr. Lubos Motl: ‘According to NOAA, the probability that a different year than 2014 was the warmest one was 52%. – According to NASA, the probability that a different year than 2014 was the warmest one was 62%.’ It is more likely than not that the warmest year was a different one than 2014. – ‘As the tweet unambiguously proves, NASA’s Gavin Schmidt knew about this fact. That didn’t prevent them from pushing virtually all mainstream media to publish the lie – in the very title – that: NASA: 2014 was the warmest year’

Physicist Dr. Richard Muller’s Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project: ‘It is impossible to conclude from our analysis which of 2014, 2010, or 2005 was actually the warmest year… the Earth’s average temperature for the past decade has changed very little’

Analysis: NASA’s ‘hottest year’ claim ‘ignores the fact that its error bar is 500% larger than claimed record — & ignores that satellite data’ – Nasa ‘ignores the record Antarctic sea ice, ignores the above average global sea ice, ignores the record snow cover’

Analysis: NASA ‘has massively altered (temperature data) over the past decade’

Oops. NOAA (quietly) admits 2014 was ‘more unlikely than likely’ the warmest on record – According to NOAA definitions, global surface temperatures for 2014 were “More Unlikely Than Likely” the highest on record, but they failed to note that on the main page of their State of the Climate report…NOAA has once again shown it is a political entity, not a scientific one. And that’s a damn shame. The public needs openness from NOAA about climate; we do not need to be misled by politically motivated misdirection and misinformation.

NOAA concedes ‘Hottest Year’ claim ‘is within…the uncertainty of the dataset’ – ‘The new record high by 0.04 deg C is within the +/-0.09 deg C uncertainty of the dataset.’

Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: ‘Why You are Being Misled on Global Temperatures’ – ‘I am embarrassed by the scientific community’s behavior on the subject’ – ‘In what universe does a temperature change that is too small for anyone to feel over a 50 year period become globally significant?’ – ‘Where we don’t know if the global average temperature is 58 or 59 or 60 deg. F, but we are sure that if it increases by 1 or 2 deg. F, that would be a catastrophe?’

Warmist_Year_Evah_scr

Cartoon Via WattsUPWithThat.com

Climatologist Dr. Tim Ball accuses NASA’s Gavin Schmidt of ‘climate deception.’ –  “Schmidt knows, after all his years with participating in the creation and naming of the RealClimate.org web site, that it is all about the headline,” Ball wrote via email on January 18.- “Schmidt has achieved that, and all the pointing out of errors and deceptions will not alter the impression left with the media and the public. As it is said, the lie is twice round the world before the truth even has its boots on,” Ball wrote. “Schmidt has taken on the [retired NASA scientist) James Hansen mantle with vigor and purpose and the climate deception continues,” Ball concluded.

Physicist Dr. Richard Muller’s Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project: ‘It is impossible to conclude from our analysis which of 2014, 2010, or 2005 was actually the warmest year… the Earth’s average temperature for the past decade has changed very little’ – Another analysis, from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project, drawn from ten times as many measuring stations as GISS, concluded that if 2014 was a record year, it was by an even tinier amount.’

WMO in 2006 Demolishes NOAA/NASA Claims Of ‘Hottest Year’ – Global average temperature in 2006 is ‘statistically indistinguishable’ – WMO Flashback 2006: ‘All temperature values have uncertainties, which arise mainly from gaps in data coverage. The size of the uncertainties is such that the global average temperature for 2006 is statistically indistinguishable from, and could be anywhere between, the first and the eighth warmest year on record.’

UK’s Lord Christopher Monckton: ‘Was 2014 the warmest year on record? No, it wasn’t’ – ‘ According to the RSS satellite data, there has been no global warming – at all – for 18 years 3 months, notwithstanding ever-more-rapid increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.’ – ‘Those who have repeatedly tampered with the terrestrial temperature record and have relied chiefly on the tampered results for their assertion that 2014 was “the warmest year on record”.  – ‘Their strategy is now clear: Cut worldwide CO2 emissions even though this is plainly unnecessary, and then – when temperature fails to rise as predicted – assert that the absence of global warming that would not have happened in any event is attributable to emissions cuts. On this daft basis, the world’s governments make policy at taxpayers’ expense.’

Monckton jan 2014

UK Met Office Say Surface Temperatures Should Agree With Satellites — ‘Except when they’re not!!’ – ‘In 2013, the Met Office had this to say about global temperature datasets: “Changes in temperature observed in surface data records are corroborated by records of temperatures in the troposphere recorded by satellites” Well, except when they’re not!!

‘NOAA used a specific ENSO index to claim that El Niño conditions did not exist in 2014, when at least one other index says El Niño conditions existed’ – ‘NOAA used a specific ENSO index to claim that El Niño conditions did not exist in 2014, when at least one other index says El Niño conditions existed.’

‘Earth is heading into its third year of above average sea ice cover, as government scientists, politicians and the press continue to insist that the poles are melting’ – ‘Why would NASA trust their own satellites, when they have a piss poor network of surface stations which doesn’t cover much of the planet, and they insist needs to be massively adjusted?’

‘Earth is heading into its third year of above average sea ice cover, as government scientists, politicians and the press continue to insist that the poles are melting’

Analysis: NASA’s ‘hottest year’ claim ‘ignores the fact that its error bar is 500% larger than claimed record — & ignores that satellite data’ – Nasa ‘ignores the record Antarctic sea ice, ignores the above average global sea ice, ignores the record snow cover’

Analysis: NASA ‘has massively altered (temperature data) over the past decade’– ‘NASA GISS has nearly doubled reported 1880 to 2000 warming since their 2003 version. They have altered the data so much, they had to stretch the scale at both ends to fit their alterations on to the graph. This is not “reliable” data.’

Scientist calls warmist claim ‘preposterous’: Rips claim that there is only a ’1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural’ – ‘It is a mark, and an important one, of how political climate “science” has become that statistics like this are quoted and accepted…So why do they quote these numbers Because they want to scare you into believing, without evidence, their alternate model, apocalyptic man-made global warming is true.’

Why Satellite Records Cannot Be Ignored – ‘Between 1979 and 2012, the satellite and surface data followed each other closely’ – ‘Until the difference between satellite and surface datasets can be fully explained, it is no more than political rhetoric to claim that 2014 was the warmest year on record.’

Flashback 2005: NASA’s James Hansen: No Agreement On What Is ‘Surface Air Temperature’ …Few Observed Data Filled In With ‘Guesses’ – Hansen: ‘To measure SAT (Surface Air Temperature) we have to agree on what it is and, as far as I know, no such standard has been suggested or generally adopted.’

Q. If Surface Air Temperatures cannot be measured, how are SAT maps created?
Hansen: ‘We may start out the model with the few observed data that are available and fill in the rest with guesses (also called extrapolations)’

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Scientists balk at ‘hottest year’ claims: Ignores Satellites showing 18 Year ‘Pause’ – ‘We are arguing over the significance of hundredths of a degree’ – The ‘Pause’ continues

Climate Depot’s Marc Morano: ‘Claiming 2014 is the ‘hottest year’ on record based on hundredths of a degree temperature difference is a fancy way of saying the global warming ‘pause’ is continuing.’

Astrophysicist Dr. Dr David Whitehouse: ‘The NASA press release is highly misleading…talk of a record is scientifically and statistically meaningless.’

Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: ‘Why 2014 Won’t Be the Warmest Year on Record’ (based on surface data)– ‘We are arguing over the significance of hundredths of a degree’

Climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels debunks 2014 ‘hottest year’ claim: ‘Is 58.46° then distinguishable from 58.45°? In a word, ‘NO.’

No Record Temperatures According To Satellites

Physicist Dr. Lubos Motl: ‘Please laugh out loud when someone will be telling you that it was the warmest year’

Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke Sr.: ‘We have found a significant warm bias. Thus, the reported global average surface temperature anomaly is also too warm.’

Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: ‘With 2014 essentially tied with 2005 and 2010 for hottest year, this implies that there has been essentially no trend in warming over the past decade.’