Updated list of 29 – Actually 30 – excuses for the 18 year ‘pause’ in global warming – ‘If you can’t explain the ‘pause’, you can’t explain the cause…’

Updated list of 29 [Updated to 30] excuses for the nearly 18 year ‘pause’ in global warming


“If you can’t explain the ‘pause’, you can’t explain the cause”
RSS satellite data showing the 18 year ‘pause’ of global warming

Figure 1. RSS monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies (dark blue) and trend (thick bright blue line), September 1996 to June 2014, showing no trend for 17 years 10 months.

An updated list of at least 29 excuses for the 18 year ‘pause’ in global warming, including recent scientific papers, media quotes, blogs, and related debunkings: 

1) Low solar activity 

15) We forgot to cherry-pick models in tune with natural variability [debunked]

16) Negative phase of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation17) AMOC ocean oscillation

18) “Global brightening” has stopped

19) “Ahistorical media”

20) “It’s the hottest decade ever” Decadal averages used to hide the ‘pause’ [debunked]

21) Few El Ninos since 1999

22) Temperature variations fall “roughly in the middle of the AR4 model results”

23) “Not scientifically relevant”

24) The wrong type of El Ninos

25) Slower trade winds [debunked]

26) The climate is less sensitive to CO2 than previously thought [see also]

27) PDO and AMO natural cycles and here

28) ENSO

29) Solar cycle driven ocean temperature variations

UPDATE: It only took a few more days to reach #30:

30) Warming Atlantic caused cooling Pacific [paper] [debunked by Trenberth & Wunsch]

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An incomplete list of excuses

UPDATE: C3 updates the Wayne’s World graphic: