UN Climate Summit Rejects Its Own Science – Links Typhoon Haiyan to Global Warming – UN Summit Degenerates Into Unscientific Claims to Advance Political Agenda – Climate Depot Special Report


By: - Climate DepotNovember 19, 2013 8:30 AM with 90 comments

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WARSAW – The United Nations global warming summit in Warsaw has contorted its own science reports in an attempt to claim that Tyhpoon Haiyan/Yolanda was a result of man-made global warming. The UN’s 19th session of the Conference of the Parties, being held in Warsaw Poland, is exploiting the tragedy in the Philippines in order to advance the UN’s political agenda.

Climate Depot’s Special Report includes the latest scientific studies, analyses, including the UN IPCC’s own report, which counters the UN climate summit’s claims about Typhoons and extreme weather.

UN CLAIMS:

UN head Ban Ki-moon says Typhoon Haiyan due to climate change – ‘We have seen now what has happened in the Philippines. It is an urgent warning. An example of changed weather and how climate change is affecting all of us on Earth.’

Philippines lead negotiator at UN climate summit in Warsaw puts the blame for typhoon on global warming – ‘Yeb Sano announces he will not eat during the conference, until a meaningful agreement has been achieved’

Jeffrey Sachs,  Special Advisor to UN Sec.-General Ban Ki-moon,  tweeted on Nov. 10 that ‘Climate liars like Rupert Murdoch & Koch Brothers have more & more blood on their hands as climate disasters claim lives across the world.’

Typhoon Fuels Call for Global Warming Compensation Funds at UN Summit – Poor nations ‘blame countries that industrialized 200 years ago for damaging the atmosphere’ – Bloomberg News: ‘Some 130 countries, including islands concerned they’ll disappear with rising sea levels, are pushing for reparations as part of a “loss and damage” mechanism at United Nations climate talks in Warsaw this week. They blame countries that industrialized 200 years ago for damaging the atmosphere.’

Religious Claim: Repent Ye Sinners to Stop Bad Weather! Wash Post features theologian Susan Brooks Thistlethwaite urging us to ‘repent’ for our ‘sin’ of causing Typhoon Haiyan due to the ‘moral evil of climate change denial’ – ‘Suffering and the sin of climate change denial’

Warmists blame global warming! Heidi Cullen blames ‘deep warm water’ for fueling typhoon Haiyan’s ‘intensity’ — But data refutes her claim — Bob Tisdale refutes Heidi Cullen: ‘There was nothing unusually warm about the sea surface temperature anomalies for the early portion of Typhoon Haiyan’s storm track’

Scientific Reality Check:

UK Daily Mail: The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – hailed by greens as the ultimate arbiter – does not agree tropical storms have become more intense or frequent, but says the opposite. Their special report last year said: ‘There is low confidence in any observed long-term (40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (ie intensity, frequency, duration).’  Its authoritative Fifth Assessment Report added in September there have been ‘no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century’.

Was Haiyan the Strongest Storm Ever? No – ‘Haiyan ranks at number 7 among the strongest storms ever to have hit the Philippines’

Meteorologist Dr. Ryan demolishes claims that Typhoon Haiyan was ‘strongest storm ever’ – Maue: ‘Fact: Haiyan is 58th Super Typhoon since 1950 to reach central pressure of 900 mb or lower from historical records’Maue: ’50 of 58 Super Typhoons with pressure of 900 mb or lower occurred from 1950-1987 — only 8 in past 25 years

Deconstructing Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda: ‘It seems reasonable to conclude that Haiyan/Yolanda was a Category 5 storm, i.e. that 1-minute wind speeds were at least 157 mph. However, it was clearly a much less powerful storm than Camille, and arguably many others in recent history’

Most Intense Typhoons On The Decline: ‘The almost total absence of such intense storms in the last two decades is notable’ — ‘There have been 35 typhoons with an atmospheric pressure of 895 mb or less, the figure measured for Yolanda’

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Analysis: The Super Storm Meme: ‘Not only was Haiyan not the most intense storm ever seen, it’s not even in the running’ – ‘When compared to that region’s list of most intense storms, Haiyan ties with a clutch of other storms—most recently Yuri in 1991—for an ignominious 21st place.’

Bjorn Lomborg: ‘Facts don’t support climate-change-caused-typhoon-Haiyan. Strong typhoons declining 1950-10. — Lomborg: ‘When people claim global warming caused typhoon Haiyan, they might want to realize that strong typhoons have *declined* since 1950 in the Western North Pacific (graph).

In Weinkle et al, 2012 “Historical Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls” (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2012.04.pdf), you see how not only in Western North Pacific but generally, there is no trend in hurricanes across the world.’

New paper finds Pacific cyclone activity is at the lowest levels of the past 5,000 years – Published in Quaternary Science Reviews — ‘The paper also shows typhoons in Japan at the lowest levels of the past 3,500 years and that North Atlantic hurricanes were more frequent/severe than modern times during various intervals over the past 3,000 years’

Prof. Roger Pielke Jr. Answers AP’s Seth Borenstein’s questions on Typhoon Hiayan: ‘The scientific evidence does not presently support claims of attribution of the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on tropical cyclone behavior with respect to century-long trends ‘much less the behavior of individual storms’

Pielke Jr.: “In practical terms, on timescales of decision making a signal that cannot be seen is indistinguishable from a signal that does not exist”

Pielke Jr. On ‘unsupportable quotes’ from Mann, Francis & Masters: ‘Of course, there are scientists willing to go beyond what can be supported empirically to make claims at odds with the overwhelming scientific consensus on this subject — e.g., [Michael] Mann, [Jennifer] Francis, [Jeff] Masters are always good for inscrutable and unsupportable quotes.’

Sea Level: ‘Sea level rise is inexorable and relatively slow in comparison to the surges associated with tropical cyclones…It is not possible to identify a ‘sea level rise’ signal in historical normalized losses from tropical cyclones, and of course, not a GHG-driven sea-level rise signal. More generally, when we are talking about 5 meter storm surges, I am not convinced that 3 mm/year of sea level rise is a big issue in the magnitude of disaster losses (because building and adaptation along the coast is continuous and in the context of where the sea is presently)’

‘Overall, globally and over decades, disasters from weather events are resulting in lower damages per unit of GDP and less loss of life.’

Scientists reject Typhoon Haiyan link to man-made global warming: Storm expert Brian McNoldy of U. of Miami: ‘We don’t get to pick and choose which storms are enhanced by a warmer climate and which ones aren’t’ — Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami: ‘While Haiyan was absolutely amazing, it’s not alone. It’s in an elite company of a handful of other tropical cyclones scattered across the decades and across the world.’ — Haiyan ‘was just as subject to this year’s climate as the numerous others that weren’t so impressive. Extremely intense tropical cyclones are rare, but have always been a part of nature — we don’t need to find an excuse for them.’

Gabe Vecchi, a research oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said that if global warming altered Haiyan, it did not do so to a significant extent. ‘I expect that the contribution of global warming to Haiyan’s extreme intensity is likely to have been small, relative to other factors like weather fluctuations and climate variability.’

Prof. Roger Pielke Jr. rips media for Haiyan hype: ‘Super powerful storm doesn’t need the extra hype. Reality is bad enough…Philippine Met Service predicted max 18 ft surge from Typhoon Haiyan. So Anderson Cooper’s [show] of CNN ‘off by 22-32 ft’ — Pielke Jr. : ‘Indeed, pretty scary and devastating. So why the need to hype with false claims of 40-50 ft? (on CNN’s Anderson Cooper)

Philippine Met Service: ‘Some of the reports of wind speeds were exaggerated’

Flashback study shows most frequent typhoons happend in Little Ice Age: ’2004 paleoclimate reconstruction of hurricane landfalls in South-eastern China: ‘Remarkably, the two periods of most frequent typhoon strikes in Guangdong (AD 1660–1680, 1850–1880) coincide with two of the coldest & driest periods in northern & central China during the Little Ice Age’

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: ‘If you really studied typhoons, then Haiyan is perhaps as big as they come, but you dont shoot your mouth off about it being strongest ever’

The Philippines Have Always Had Super Typhoons — See list from 1882-1938

Analysis: ‘Every time there is a big storm, someone with an authoritative sounding title makes a bogus claim. The press corpse picks up on it, and it becomes sacred legend. No amount of scientific rebuke can undo the legend’

UK Paper Blames Typhoon Haiyan on Global Warming: ‘As climate change continues, we should expect more devastating storms’ — Meteorologist slams claim

Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue slams claims as the ‘first of many garbage articles to come’

Maue: ‘Over past 1,000 years, Philippines have been hit by 10-20 thousand tropical cyclones. Don’t be so arrogant to believe man caused Haiyan.’

Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue: Amazing how bad media/news information is on Haiyan: ‘strongest storm ever recorded’ — No independent fact checking. Just rely on a blog’ (Warmist Jeff Masers blog)

Wash Post’s Brad Plumer on tropical cyclones: ‘There don’t appear to be any obvious global trends’

UK Paper Blames Typhoon Haiyan on Global Warming: ‘As climate change continues, we should expect more devastating storms’ — Meteorologist slams claim]

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Climatologist Dr. Heidi Cullen appears to be the first global warming activist to promote a link between typhoon Haiyan and man-made global warming. See: Meteorologist Anthony Watts announces: ‘Dr. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central wins the “First Haiyan BS award” with this missive.

Weather Bell meteorologist Joe Bastardi also weighed in, excoriating Cullen “Are you for real?, Bastardi asked Cullen. “Of course water is warm, NO typhoons within 100 miles of this since 2008. No stirring of water,” he explained.

Did you even bother to look at how infrequent typhoons have been where this is crossing, which means water is not cooled?’ Bastardi wrote.

He added, “Thanks btw. Verified a forecast I issued 5 days ago: agw ilk would use storm. Lets hear what you say about next week cold in US’

This is not the first time Cullen has been at the center of a climate controversy. In 2007, she called for all meteorologists to conform to belief in man-made global warming claims. See: Flashback January 2007: Weather Channel’s Heidi Cullen Calls for Decertifying AMS Global Warming Skeptics

Warmists go full shameless: ‘Climate Deniers, Super Typhoon Haiyan Is Looking At You’ — Warmist claims: ‘When climate science deniers claim a global warming “pause,” the heat isn’t missing – it’s right there lurking in the ocean, waiting to put super typhoons on steroids’

Skeptical scientist Bob Tisdale refutes warmist claims: ‘Are you aware those sea surface temperature conditions exist often in the western tropical Pacific?  In fact, there is nothing unusually warm about the sea surface temperatures for the early portion of Haiyan’s storm track.’

Warmist John Vidal of UK Guardian: Typhoon Haiyan: ‘What really alarms Filipinos is the rich world ignoring climate change’ — ‘Typhoon Haiyan, like Bopha, will be seen widely in developing countries as a taste of what is to come, along with rising sea levels and water shortages’

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: ‘Amazing hurricane season. LOWEST ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) ever recorded in warm amo ( Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), non warm enso (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) season. Not even close Simply astounding for its lack’

UK Daily Mail: There is ‘no scientific basis’ linking Haiyan to global warming – ‘How the BBC turned a catastrophic crisis into a drama about global warming’ – ‘They were told storms like Typhoon Haiyan are linked to global warming’

Typhoon frequency graphic

Extreme weather expert Prof. Roger Pielke Jr. Calls B.S. on New York Times article – Pielke Jr. ‘BS–>NYT’: ‘The current global turbulence, consistent with what scientists expect to happen as the climate changes, is already taking a toll’NYT article: ‘Following a devastating typhoon that killed thousands in the Philippines, a routine international climate change conference here turned into an emotional forum, with developing countries demanding compensation from the worst polluting countries for damage they say they are already suffering.’

Investor’s Business Daily Features Climate Depot: ‘There have been 35 cyclones in the last 800 years that have killed more than 10,000 people. Thirty-three occurred with CO2 below 350 PPM. The deadliest one in 1970 was blamed on global cooling at the time’ — ‘Marc Morano at Climate Depot has reported on an analysis by climate blogger Steve Goddard of the historical record, which found that the worst cyclones or typhoons occurred before any significant addition to CO2 levels by industrialization.’

Analysis: Cyclones, typhoons and cherry-picking – ‘It is quite clear from this graph that there has been no increase. The IPCC says so’

 

 

Repent Ye Sinners to Stop Bad Weather! Wash Post features theologian Susan Brooks Thistlethwaite urging us to ‘repent’ for our ‘sin’ of causing Typhoon Haiyan due to the ‘moral evil of climate change denial’ – ‘Suffering and the sin of climate change denial’[email protected] – Susan Brooks Thistlethwaite, M.Div., Ph.D., is Professor of Theology and Immediate Past President of Chicago Theological Seminary: ‘These ‘superstorms’ aren’t an ‘act of God,’ but an act of willful disregard for God’s creation, and the neglect of the human responsibility to care for the planet.’ — ‘There is the moral evil of continuing to pump fossil fuels into the atmosphere, producing global warming. Second, however, is the moral evil of climate change denial, that is, those who would continue to deny, in the face of mounting evidence, that violent climate change is upon us and it is accelerating.

There is a theological prescription, in a classical sense, for what we must do: confession, repentance and change.  In the case of what we are up against in terms of planetary destruction, those theological directives look like this: 1) Admit human caused, violently destructive climate change is happening.  The harm to God’s creation is real, it is happening and human beings bear enormous responsibility for it.2) Repent for what we have already lost by inaction… action to stop what we have already done, and slow down future changes, is urgent. 3) Change personal practice and public policy…Individuals need to take responsibility as well, both to move toward less of a carbon footprint, and to vote for those who will make positive policy changes.

Climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels on Typhoon Haiyan: ‘Was Typhoon Haiyan the Most Intense Storm in Modern History?’ – ‘There’s a variety of evidence arguing that [1969’s] Camille is going to be able to retain her crown’ – ‘The storm of record is 1969 Hurricane Camille, which I rode out in an oceanfront laboratory about 25 miles east of the eye. There’s a variety of evidence arguing that Camille is going to be able to retain her crown’ – ‘Haiyan’s estimated 195mph winds were derived from satellite data, rather than being directly sensed by an aircraft’

Analysis: ‘Reality is Absent from Michael Mann’s Activist Article on Typhoon Haiyan’ – Mann called ‘an activist celebrity—one who masquerades as a climate scientist— [who] used the misfortunes of others in efforts to advance a political agenda. And to make the effort even more futile on Mann’s part, much of the evidence he presented has no basis in reality.’

94% of deadliest cyclones occurred with CO2 below 350. Worst ones happened during 1970 global cooling eraCorrelating Deadly Cyclones With CO2 – ‘There have been 35 cyclones in the last 800 years which killed more than 10,000 people. Thirty-three of them occurred with CO2 below 350 PPM. The deadliest one in 1970 was blamed on global cooling at the time’

Former Harvard Physicist Dr. Lubos Motl: Typhoon Haiyan: similar unspectacular cyclones arrive every 2-3 years — ‘CNN wrote that the storm surge was 40-50 feet; the actual figure from the meteorologists was 18 feet.’

UN Advisor Jeffrey Sachs Claims Current Energy Policies ‘Partly Caused’ Typhoon — Those who disagree have ‘blood on their hands’[email protected]

Sachs is Director of The Earth Institute & Quetelet Prof. of Sustainable Development at Columbia University. He is Special Advisor to UN Sec.-General Ban Ki-moon

Sachs on MSNBC: ‘We’re causing this because there are more and more of these storms, because of the way that humanity is changing the world’s environment.’ — ‘This kind of event will happen more frequently unless we change the way we run our energy system. This is what humanity is doing. This is very, very hard to come to grips with.’

Sachs thinks that people responsible for opposing ‘green’ energy plans are guilty whenever someone dies from a natural disaster. Sachs tweeted on Nov. 10 that ‘Climate liars like Rupert Murdoch & Koch Brothers have more & more blood on their hands as climate disasters claim lives across the world.’

Sachs also claimed on MSNBC: ‘Increasing Intensity of the Strongest Tropical Cyclones,” published 2008, demonstrated that disasters like Haiyan becoming more common.’

Extreme weather expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. corrected Sachs version of science and said of Sachs:  ‘The lesson here is that if you are going to pick cherries, make sure that the fruit is not a lemon.’ Pielke Jr. explained: ‘Given this data, substantial research on it and a strong IPCC consensus does anyone really want to debate that typhoon disasters have become more common?’ 

More anti-science rants from UN Advisor Jeffrey Sachs — Uses storms/tornado outbreak in U.S. to push global warming: Sachs: ‘Weather tragedy in Illinois. Research shows human-induced warming is likely to lead to more severe thunderstorms’

Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue ridicules Sachs claims: Maue: ‘Jeff Sachs you are very brave to stand up to climate deniers. Your expertise on weather & climate is pitch perfect & helping immensely!’

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi on November tornado outbreak in U.S.: ‘Unofficially, over 75 tornadoes today. Similar high risk outbreaks 02,05. Still leaves us more than 100 BELOW all time record low tornado/year’

Another rebuttal to Sachs here. 

Hulk Actor Mark Ruffalo Claims Oil Causes Typhoons: ‘What happened in the Philippines must be stopped. Fossil fuels are enemy #1 to mankind’

In wake of Typhoon Haiyan, Actor George Clooney declares global warming skeptics to be ‘stupid’ and ‘ridiculous’ – Watch Video

Watch Now: CNN’s Piers Morgan defends featuring skeptics in global warming debate, slaps down warmist guest Mark Hertsgaard — Warmist Mark Hertsgaard of The Nation: ‘Piers, I repeat, journalistically this is malpractice to have on somebody pretending this is 50% and 50% when nobody in the scientific community takes the view that climate change is not related to stronger storms.’

Watch Full Video Here: Piers Morgan: ‘I think it’s actually journalistic malpractice to not to have a fair debate actually, with all due respect to you Mark Hertzguard. But thank you very much for the lecture on journalism’Hertsgaard was debating Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer. Here is Spencer’s take on debate.More here, including transcript.

Related Links:

Flashback: Meteorologist Bastardi Slams Heidi Cullen as ‘stunningly ignorant’ for ‘claiming global warming was( is) responsible for all that is wrong in the weather, climate or whatever’ — ‘I am simply astounded that someone that is accorded the honor of a PHD can think this way’

UK Paper Blames Typhoon Haiyan on Global Warming: ‘As climate change continues, we should expect more devastating storms’ — Meteorologist slams claim – UK Mirror: ‘Haiyan had already been recognized as the most intense tropical storm in this area since Super Typhoon Tip (1979).’ – ’It has long been recognized that the increases seen in global average temperatures are likely to drive changes in the patterns and frequency of extreme weather events…As our planet home, and particularly its oceans, heats, simple physics tells us that the energy stored will likely lead to increases in the intensity and frequency of devastating storms like Haiyan.’

Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue slams claims as the ‘first of many garbage articles to come’ – Maue: ‘Over past 1,000 years, Philippines have been hit by 10-20 thousand tropical cyclones. Don’t be so arrogant to believe man caused Haiyan.’

Wash Post’s Brad Plumer on tropical cyclones: ‘There don’t appear to be any obvious global trends’

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: ‘Amazing hurricane season. LOWEST ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) ever recorded in warm amo ( Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), non warm enso (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) season. Not even close Simply astounding for its lack’

New Study: ’2013 ranks as one of the least extreme U.S. weather years ever’– Many bad weather events at ‘historically low levels’

Report: ‘Extreme Weather Report 2012′: ‘Latest peer-reviewed studies, data & analyses undermine claims that current weather is ‘unprecedented’ or a ‘new normal’

Analysis: ‘Greenhouse gas levels reach record highs, nothing happens’

Temperatures: Global temperatures have been flat since 1998

Global Cooling: ‘Attention in the public debate seems to be moving away from the 15-17 year ‘pause’ to the cooling since 2002,” writes Dr. Judith Curry, the chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Institute of Technology.

Extreme Weather: “It is misleading and just plain incorrect to claim that disasters associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods or droughts have increased on climate timescales either in the United States or globally,” Professor Roger Pielke Jr. said in his testimony before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.

Hurricanes: ‘Hurricanes have not increased in frequency, intensity or normalized damage in the U.S. since 1900.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes and tropical cyclones have also not become more intense or frequent since 1950 and 1970, respectfully.

Floods & Droughts: U.S. floods have not increased in frequency or intensity since 1950, according to Professor Roger Pielke Jr., and droughts have become shorter, less frequent, and smaller over the last century. Globally, floods have changed very little in the last 60 years.

Wildfires: Dr. Bjorn Lomborg, the “skeptical environmentalist,” writes: “Historical analysis of wildfires around the world shows that since 1950 their numbers have decreased globally by 15%… The world has not seen a general increase in drought. A study published in Nature in November shows globally that ‘there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years.’

Arctic Ice: Arctic sea ice coverage was 29 percent greater in September of this year compared to the same time last year — with ice covering 533,000 square miles of ocean more than last year.

Antarctic Ice: The south pole has also fared well, despite rising greenhouse gas emissions. Antarctic sea ice hit a 35-year record high in September — covering nearly 20 million square kilometers of ocean with ice. The previous sea ice coverage record was in 2012, meaning there have been two straight record high years.

Sea Level: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data show the sea levels only rose 1.1 to 1.3 millimeters per year from 2005 to 2012. This is actually below the rate of sea level rise from 1954 to 2003.