In newly published papers, scientists have reported that Arctic sea ice extent grew during the decades from the 1940s to the 1980s before declining after the 1980s. The Arctic sea ice trend has thus undergone an oscillation rather than a linear recession, contradicting the models.
Furthermore, the instrumental record indicates that Arctic temperatures have stopped rising since about 2005.
On the other side of the planet, the sea ice surrounding Antarctica has been growing since the 1970s, or for nearly 40 years now. This sea ice expansion coincides with an overall Southern Ocean cooling trend of about -0.3°C per decade since 1979.
No Net Arctic Warming Trend Since The 1930s, 1940s
'Is There a Link Between Weather and War?' Published: September 6, 2012:
To the Editor:
Re “Weather and Violence” (Sunday Review, Sept. 1): Marshall Burke, Solomon Hsiang and Edward Miguel argue that climate change could increase violent group conflicts by 50 percent in the next 50 years. But I take strong issue with their starting point for this rise: “a planet already awash in conflict.” As Ross Douthat notes in his column on an adjacent page (“War, What Is It Good For?”), the world is actually “more at peace than at any point in human history ... with fewer invasions, fewer war crimes, fewer massacres than in the past.” -- Starting from today’s low levels, a 50 percent rise over 50 years hardly registers. After all, world total battle fatalities jumped 65 percent just in 2011 to 2012 because of Syria, but remain less than one-fifth of the average level of the 1980s. Climate change, our top global challenge, is on track to kill many millions this century, but not from wars. JOSHUA S. GOLDSTEIN - Amherst, Mass., Sept. 1, 2013 The writer, a research scholar at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, is the author of “Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide.”
William Polk, an ex-US State Department advisor, has written a meticulously detailed account of the genesis of the conflict over at The Atlantic..."Syria has been convulsed by civil war since climate change came to Syria with a vengeance," Polk writes. "Drought devastated the country from 2006 to 2011. Rainfall in most of the country fell below eight inches (20 cm) a year, the absolute minimum needed to sustain un-irrigated farming. Desperate for water, farmers began to tap aquifers with tens of thousands of new well. But, as they did, the water table quickly dropped to a level below which their pumps could lift it." -- So this is our mess too. We're still cranking away at the carbon pump, and no nation is as culpable as the United States—and as long as we do, we'll be at least in some small part, responsible for the starving, rioting masses all the way across the globe. If we're so dead set on intervention, maybe we should be focusing less on missiles and more on clean energy.