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Arctic sea ice continues to show resiliency…nearly normal temperatures in summer (melting) season holds the key to its holding firm

https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2024/3/4/1030-am-arctic-sea-ice-continues-to-show-resiliencynearly-normal-temperatures-in-summer-melting-season-holds-the-key-to-its-holding-firmpossible-role-of-water-vapor Arctic sea ice continues to show resiliency…nearly normal temperatures in summer (melting) season holds the key to its holding firm…possible important role of water vapor* By Meteorologist Paul Dorian – Arcfieldweather.com March 4, 2024 As long as temperatures in the Arctic region remain close-to-normal during the summer season (gray area), there will likely be a limit as to the amount of melting of sea ice. The plot shown here is for the full year of 2023 and indeed, temperatures were nearly normal during the summertime which continues a long-term trend. Data courtesy Danish Meteorological Institute Overview Temperatures are currently running at warmer-than-normal levels in the Arctic region (not shown) during this late stage of the winter season with actual air temperatures generally well below the freezing mark. This above-normal trend in temperatures during the cold season in the Arctic region has been quite consistent during the past many years. Meanwhile, temperatures during the past several summer months of June, July and August have been nearly normal and this is especially important with respect to Arctic sea ice as this is the melting season in the Arctic region when actual air temperatures can average right near or even slightly above the freezing mark. As long as temperatures in the Arctic region remain nearly normal during the summer (melting) season, the chance for a significant drop off in sea ice will be limited. Indeed, given this consistent temperature trend in recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shown resiliency both in terms extent and in volume. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern across the Arctic region with nearly normal summertime conditions and warmer-than-normal in the other nine months of the year (i.e., the cold season) can be increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere. Anomaly of the +80N mean temperature index is shown here back to 1960, compared with climate (annual mean minus the corresponding climate value). “All year” anomaly is illustrated with the black line and has climbed since the middle 1990s. The “summertime” anomaly of June, July, and August is illustrated with red and has held at nearly normal levels. An important shift in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) took place during the middle 1990’s when it flipped from a “negative-to-positive” phase. Reference climate is ECMWF-ERA40 1958-2002. Plot courtesy Danish Meteorological Institute Arctic temperatures and the impact on sea ice Temperatures have followed a persistent trend in the Arctic region during the past several years, in fact, going all the way back to the beginning of the 21st Century.  Specifically, temperatures have been running at nearly normal levels during the all-important summer (melting) season of June, July, and August and then usually at well above-normal levels during the remaining nine months of the year. Nearly normal temperatures in the summer months of June, July and August are typically at levels just right near or slightly above the freezing mark and as long as they remain there during this the melting season, chances for any significant drop-off in Arctic sea ice will be limited. Well above-normal temperatures in the other nine months of the year have minimal impact on the melting of Arctic sea ice as – even though they may average at well above-normal levels – they are generally way below the freezing mark. Indeed, with this dependable temperature trend in recent years, Arctic sea ice has been rather resilient both in terms of extent and volume. This plot shows the annual Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) detrended index values from the 1850’s to the present. There was an important shift in the AMO during the middle 1990’s from negative-to-positive (indicated by arrow on plot) associated with a warming of sea surface temperatures in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. The thin blue line indicates 3-month averages and the thick blue line represents the 11-year rolling average. Data source: NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, last full year shown is 2022, diagram updated January 2023  Arctic sea ice extent has been running at below-normal levels since the middle 1990’s at which time there was an important shift in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to one featuring warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. The Arctic sea ice extent headed steadily downward after that shift and reached its lowest point in 2012 at levels not seen before during the satellite era which goes back to the late 1970’s. Since then, Arctic sea ice extent has held rather steady with a general sideways trend during the past ten years or so. Graph showing monthly Arctic sea ice extent since January 2000 with a general “sideways” trend during the past ten years or so. The lowest point in the minimum Arctic sea ice area extend came during 2012 (indicated with arrow). The area covered by sea ice is defined as having at least 15% sea ice cover. The thin blue line shows monthly values, and the thick blue line shows the simple running 13 month average. The red lines show the 1979-2023 average. Data provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Last month shown: January 2024. Latest figure update: 6 February 2024. In addition to sea ice extent, an important climate indicator to monitor is sea ice volume as it depends on both ice thickness and extent. Arctic sea ice volume is difficult to monitor on a continuous basis as observations from satellites, submarines and field measurements are all limited in space and time. As a result, one of the best ways to estimate sea ice volume is through the usage of numerical models which utilizes all available observations. One such computer model comes from the University of Washington and is called the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003). This model-derived Arctic sea ice volume shows a steady downward trend from the middle 1990s to the low point that was reached in 2012.  Since then, Arctic sea ice volume has been showing resiliency with a general sideways trend during the past several years. Arctic sea ice volume as estimated by the University of Washington’s PIOMAS numerical model shows resilience during the last ten years or so with a “sideways” trend. This model output data is updated on a monthly basis and is shown here through January 2024. Details on the PIOMAS model are available here. Possible role of water vapor One possible explanation for the behavior of temperatures in the Arctic region during the past couple of decades has to do with increased amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere. Overall, water vapor content has been higher-than-normal in the Arctic region during the past couple of decades largely as the result of warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in both the North Atlantic (positive AMO) and the Pacific Ocean (multiple El Nino events). Relative humidity (left) and surface temperatures (right) have averaged higher-than-normal during the wintertime in the Arctic region (indicated with arrows) for the last ten years (2013-2023). An increase in water vapor (and relative humidity) in the cold, dry cold season of the Arctic can have much more of an impact on air temperatures as compared with the warmer summer (melting) season. Maps courtesy NOAA/NCAR Given the warmer-than-normal water temperatures, there has been increased evaporation and this, in turn, generates more overall water vapor in the atmosphere. An increase in water vapor will have a much bigger impact on temperatures in very cold and dry atmospheric conditions and less of an impact in a warmer and more humid environment. In other words, an increase in overall water vapor could very well result in warmer-than-normal temperatures during the cold seasons in the Arctic when it is typically very cold and dry, and likely have little, if any, impact during the warmer, more humid summer (melting) season. Meteorologist Paul Dorian Arcfield arcfieldweather.com

Arctic Sea Ice Continues its Remarkable Recovery: Ice expands to 21-year high

https://dailysceptic.org/2024/02/08/arctic-sea-ice-continues-its-stonking-recovery/ BY CHRIS MORRISON Arctic sea ice continued its stonking recovery last month, recording its 24th highest level in the 45-year modern satellite record. As reported previously in the Daily Sceptic, the ice climbed to a 21-year high on January 8th. Good news, of course, for ice fans and polar bears, but frankly a bit of a disaster if you are forecasting future summer swimming galas at the North Pole to promote a collectivist Net Zero agenda. Live by the sword, die by the sword – if you cherry-pick the scientific record to state the climate is collapsing, it might be thought you have some explaining to do when the trend reverts to the norm. Just ask coral alarmists about two years of record growth on the Great Barrier Reef. Sadly, explanations there are none, just a deafening, stunned silence. Arctic sea ice has long been a poster scare for climate Armageddon. But science tells us that it is cyclical and is heavily influenced by ocean currents and atmospheric heat exchanges. It would appear that these chaotic changes are beyond the ability of any computer to process, although a large, well-funded model industry begs to differ. The recovery in Arctic sea ice has been steady if slow and this has enabled the alarums to hang on in the mainstream headlines. Of course it could go into reverse, nobody really knows, least of all Sir David Attenborough who told BBC viewers in 2022 that the summer ice could all be gone by 2035. He relied, needless to say, on a computer model. Most mainstream climate journalists just print what they are told without looking too closely at the source of the information. The U.S.-based National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) is a source of interpretation for trends in polar ice, but care needs to be taken when reading its often gloomy monthly summaries. According to the NSIDC, January sea ice growth was “lower than average” throughout most of the month. It headlined its report: ‘Nothing swift about January sea ice.’ Other interpretations are available. Consider the graph below tracking the ice extent for January over the satellite record. Statisticians can argue over when the sea ice started to recover but there has not been much decline going back to around 2007. In this case January shows a similar trend to that seen in September, the month with the lowest sea ice extent. A moving average line from around the middle of the last decade would show an obvious increase. But the NSIDC reproduces this graph for every individual month and year with a downward linear trend from 1979, a noted high point for recent sea ice. The graph is widely used on social media to counter any suggestion that the ice is recovering. Note also that the NSIDC claims the January growth extent was “below average”. Well it depends on what average you are using. The NSIDC uses a comparative average from 1981-2010, despite a more recent decade of data being available. It is not hard to see why it prefers 1981-2010 since it includes the higher levels of the 1980s and excludes the lower levels of the 2010s. Taking a 1991-2020 average would likely lead to many more ‘above average’ observations. Data before 1979 is not as accurate, but levels going back to the 1950s suggest much lower sea ice extents. Perish the thought that comparisons should be made with these data or observations made about an obvious cyclical trend seen here and in the historical record going back to the early 1800s. The NSIDC can spin its figures as much as it likes knowing that in the era of ‘settled’ climate science it is unlikely to be widely challenged. On a more serious note, this unwillingness to question perceived authority and engage in the scientific process gave us Michael E. Mann’s infamous 1998 ‘hockey stick’ graph. This purported to show declining temperatures for 1,000 years followed by a sharp recent uptick caused by human-caused burning of hydrocarbons. The unquestioning acceptance in mainstream media, science and politics can be said to have removed the concept of natural climate variability for a generation and put many Western countries on the road to Net Zero insanity. Now the hockey stick is centre stage in a Washington D.C. libel trial brought by Mann complaining that the journalist Mark Steyn branded his work a fraud. By some accounts, the hockey stick does not seem to be having a great time in the dock. Professor Abraham Wyner is a distinguished statistician at Mann’s own University of Pennsylvania. Asked on the court stand whether Mann’s hockey stick used manipulative techniques, he replied “yes”. He suggested it was possible that if you knew where you wanted to get to, you can lead yourself into a conclusion different from someone who walked down a different set of paths. In earlier court documents, Mann claimed wrongly that he was a Nobel laureate, a fact noted during the trial. His hockey stick abolished the Medieval Warming Period, while subsequent leaked Climategate emails referred to “Mike Nature Trick”. This was a practice of using the most convenient proxy or temperature measurements to fit the desired narrative. In the course of his testimony, Dr. Wyner made comments that strike at the heart of so much that is wrong with the ‘settled’ science pronouncements that seemingly cannot be disputed or even discussed. And so what happens is, and what is happening today in statistical analysis… we’re in a crisis. A crisis of trust and replication because so many results that were thought to be true turned out not to be true and correct have now gone back and looked at or attempted to be replicated and they didn’t work. Lots of things we thought were true turned out not to be true. It’s a crisis. A problem [my colleague] has identified is due to really bad statistical sets of methods that allow you to get away with choices that would produce a very different result if you did it differently. What the last two decades or so have shown us is that activists will use any weather outlier or natural disaster to claim the climate is collapsing, or the Earth is “boiling” in the odd universe occupied by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Statistics are bent to fit the desired narrative whether it be natural waxing and waning of ice levels or typhoon jets landing near a measuring device showing a 60-second 40.3°C temperature blip ‘record’ at RAF Coningsby. Net Zero is starting to unravel thread by thread, and it is time the spotlight was amped up to maximum to shine a light on all the dodgy science used to promote this horrendous reset of human society. Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.

New Publication: Pause In Arctic Sea Ice Loss Now Extends To 17 Years, Defying IPCC, NSIDC Predictions.

New Publication: Embarrassing Pause In Arctic Sea Ice Loss Now Extends To 17 Years, Defying IPCC, NSIDC Predictions. @NSIDC @IPCC_CH @GretaThunberg @ClimateDepot @PIK_Klima @NYTScience pic.twitter.com/4bdbNkZt3I — Pierre L. Gosselin (@NoTricksZone) January 8, 2024 The satellite era began in the early 1970s when extent was low. James' propaganda graph starts at the peak year in 1978 – a deliberate effort to mislead. "satellite observations have been used to map sea-ice extent routinely since the early 1970s … in 1972-1975 sea-ice extent… https://t.co/4eDY3Azw7r pic.twitter.com/erFemzlX5T — Tony Heller (@TonyClimate) January 6, 2024

Antarctic Sea Ice Volume Greater Than The Early 1980s

Antarctic Sea Ice Volume Greater Than The Early 1980s By Paul Homewood There was much scaremongering from the alarmist community when Antarctic sea ice extent fell earlier in the year. As the Antarctic summer begins, the melt has slowed down, to the extent that extent is not even the lowest since 1979, and it is higher than in 2017:   https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/ But much more important is the fact that sea ice volume remains higher than the early 1980s, thanks to the fact that it is much thicker than normal around the peninsula:  

Analysis: Antarctic sea ice extent ‘record low’ due to ‘wind patterns’ – ‘Sea ice is actually thicker than normal’ as ‘the ice edge’ being ‘squeezed closer together’ – Sea ice volume ‘is NOT lowest on record’

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2023/07/28/antarctic-sea-ice-volume/ Antarctic Sea Ice Volume JULY 28, 2023 By Paul Homewood h/t Euan Mearns As we know, Antarctic sea ice extent has been at record lows recently: https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index # Paul Homewood: As I surmised yesterday, the ice retreat may be due to wind patterns, which blow the ice towards the pole. This is something which often happens in the Arctic. And back in 2016, the NSIDC commented about exactly this phenomenon, which was associated with the Southern Annular Mode: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/12/14/antarctic-sea-ice-retreats-due-to-wind-patterns/ It is therefore appropriate to look at ice volume and thickness, as well as extent. The charts below are produced by Zach Lane, a NOAA scientist. The first chart tells a completely different story to the media narrative of a melting Antarctic. As you can see, most of the sea ice is actually thicker than normal. This is clear evidence of the ice edge being pushed polewards, squeezed closer together if you like: https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/ The second image shows that, although ice volume is much less than average, it is NOT the lowest on record. The record low appears to be from the 1980s, though it is not clear which year. What is noticeable though is that, apart from this year, most of the low volume years are coloured blue (1980s and 90s), whilst the top years are all recent: The final chart is most the revealing of all. We can clearly see that the lowest volumes were around 1980 and 1981; also the trend was steadily increasing till it hit a record high in 2014. This was followed by the drastic drop in 2016, when, according to NSIDC, the SAM flipped. Since 2016, little has changed in overall terms: # Related: CNN 2021: Antarctica’s last 6 months were the coldest on record –  October 9, 2021 – By Allison Chinchar, CNN Meteorologist

Arctic sea ice showing some resiliency since low-point in 2012

https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2022/6/3/715-am-arctic-sea-ice-showing-some-resiliency-in-recent-years Arctic sea ice extent is running at levels in the middle of the pack since the 1980’s to the present time period as measured by satellite observations. Plot courtesy EUMETSAT OSI SAF Overview Arctic sea ice extent has been running at below-normal levels since the middle 1990’s at which time there was a shift in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to one featuring warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean.  The Arctic sea ice extent headed downward after that shift and reached its lowest point about ten years ago in 2012. Since then, the Arctic sea ice has shown some resiliency and is actually not all that far from normal for this time of year. There are long-term oceanic cycles that feature different sea surface temperature patterns. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMO can be used to track the water temperature patterns in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean. There was a significant phase shift in the middle 1990s with North Atlantic Ocean temperatures generally running at warmer-than-normal levels since that particular time period and this has been associated with below-normal Arctic sea ice extent. Arctic sea ice extent There are long-term sea surface temperature trends in the oceans around the world and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) helps track patterns in the North Atlantic.  This index flipped in the middle 1990’s from a negative phase (i.e., colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures) to a positive one and Arctic sea ice extent trended downward for nearly the next two decades. In fact, one of the lowest points with respect to Arctic sea ice extent took place in the late summer of 2012 which is the usual peak of the melting season.  At this time, Arctic sea ice extent reached low levels not seen before in the satellite era going back to the late 1970’s. The melting season in the Arctic region is the summer season and temperatures have been running nearly normal for the past many years in June, July and August. In fact, while temperatures have often run at above-normal levels during the cold seasons, the summer temperatures have been nearly normal for the past couple of decades. These yearly plots going back to 2017 show the daily mean temperature north of the 80th northern parallel as a function of the day of year. Data plots courtesy Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) In recent years, however, the sea ice has held its own and summertime melting seasons have generally featured nearly normal temperatures in the Arctic region.  In fact, while the cold season has often featured warmer-than-normal temperatures, the trend of nearly normal temperatures in the summer months across the Arctic has been taking place for much of the past couple of decades. The timing of this is important since the summer is the ice melting season in the Arctic region and as long as temperatures remain nearly normal during this period, the chances of Arctic sea ice disappearing completely – as feared by some – will be greatly diminished.  The latest observations from satellite observations (EUMETSAT) show Arctic sea ice extent is actually in roughly the middle of the pack for late May in the period from the 1980’s to the present. One possible explanation of the behavior of temperatures in the Arctic region during the past many years has to do with water vapor in the atmosphere. Overall water vapor content has been higher-than-normal in the Arctic region during the past couple of decades largely as the result of warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in both the North Atlantic and the northern Pacific Ocean. Given the warmer-than-normal water temperatures, there has been increased evaporation and this, in turn, generates more water vapor in the atmosphere. An increase in water vapor can have a much bigger impact on temperatures in cold, dry atmospheric conditions and less of an impact in more humid, warmer surroundings. As a result, an increase in water vapor in the Arctic region during the past couple of decades could very well produce warmer-than-normal temperatures during the winter, spring seasons when it is cold and dry and it can have little impact during the warmer, more humid summer (melting) season. Arctic sea ice extent reached a low point at the height of the melting season in 2012 (indicated by arrow) and has been in an overall sideways trend in recent years. Sideways trend in Arctic sea ice volume since 2012 In addition to sea ice extent, an important climate indicator to monitor is sea ice volume as it depends on both ice thickness and extent. Arctic sea ice volume cannot currently be observed on a continuous basis as observations from satellites, submarines and field measurements are all limited in space and time. As a result, one of the best ways to estimate sea ice volume is through the usage of numerical models which utilize all available observations. Arctic sea ice volume from the University of Washington’s PIOMAS numerical model (Note – this model output data is updated on a monthly basis, details on the PIOMAS model are available here. One such computer model comes from the University of Washington and is called the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003). This model derived Arctic sea ice volume shows a downward trend from the middle 1990s to the low point that was reached in 2012.  Since then, the trend of Arctic sea ice volume has generally been in a sideways fashion and we’ll continue to monitor this in coming months and years. Meteorologist Paul Dorian Arcfield arcfieldweather.com

New Study: The 2016-2020 Antarctic Sea Ice Decline May Be Traced To Natural Processes

https://notrickszone.com/2022/05/30/new-study-the-2016-2020-antarctic-sea-ice-decline-may-be-traced-to-natural-processes/ By Kenneth Richard Defying climate models, the sea ice surrounding Antarctica steadily increased during the 37 years from 1979-2015. Even after many decades of studying climate processes and a supposed “consensus” that hemispheric-scale sea ice should decline in a rising CO2 concentration world, climate models cannot simulate the causative mechanisms for sea ice variability. “Over recent decades Antarctic sea-ice extent has increased, alongside widespread ice shelf thinning and freshening of waters along the Antarctic margin. In contrast, Earth system models generally simulate a decrease in sea ice.”  – Ashley et al., 2021 “Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has slightly increased over the satellite observational period (1979 to the present) despite global warming. [F]ully coupled Earth system models run under historic and anthropogenic forcing generally fail to simulate positive SIE trends over this time period.”  – Blanchard-Wrigglesworth et al., 2021 Not just around Antarctica, but the sea ice in the entire Southern Hemisphere steadily increased from 1979-2015, in concert with the trends (cooling) in Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (Comiso et al., 2017). Image Source: Comiso et al., 2017 New Study: Ice-Breaker Ship Saved By Cyclones In contrast to the rising sea ice trends from 1979-2015, there were “record low” values of Antarctic sea ice recorded from 2016 to 2020. This short-term decline likely excited those who have a penchant for attributing any warming or decreasing sea ice trend to human activity (as they dismiss 37 years of cooling and sea ice increases). But as a new study (Jena et al., 2022) once again shows, natural processes dominate as the causal mechanism driving sea ice variability in the Southern Hemisphere. In April, 2019, a cargo ship was perilously stuck in sea ice in the Southern Ocean’s Lazarev Sea. The ice was so thick the ship’s ice-breakers could not forge a way out. A causal mechanism analysis affirms that an anomalous series of “explosive polar cyclones” led to about a 10°C sea surface temperature increase (17-25 April) in the region, melting the ice surrounding the ship sufficiently enough to free it from the ice trap. “We show that the anomalous sea ice variability was due to the occurrence of eastward-moving polar cyclones, including a quasistationary explosive development that impacted sea ice through extreme changes in ocean-atmospheric conditions. The cyclone-induced dynamic (poleward propagation of ocean waves and ice motion) and thermodynamic (heat and moisture plumes from midlatitudes, ocean mixed layer warming) processes coupled with high tides provided a conducive environment for an exceptional decline in sea ice over the region of ship movement.” Nowhere in the paper do the authors mention anthropogenic CO2 emissions as a factor determining sea ice trends. Image Source: Jena et al., 2022

New Study: There Was Less Arctic Sea Ice In The 1700s-1800s Than From 2002-2006

https://notrickszone.com/2021/11/15/new-study-there-was-less-arctic-sea-ice-in-the-1700s-1800s-than-from-2002-2006/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=new-study-there-was-less-arctic-sea-ice-in-the-1700s-1800s-than-from-2002-2006 By Kenneth Richard Paleoclimate data indicate there was less Arctic sea ice during the pre-industrial period than in modern times, or when CO2 concentrations were 100 ppm lower than today (280 vs. 380 ppm). Scientists (Diamond et al., 2021) assert that during the 18th and 19th centuries Arctic sea ice extent minimum (September) values averaged 5.54 million km². Though modern sea ice losses are often characterized as dangerously low, satellite data indicate the 2002-’06 five-year average minimum sea ice extent was 5.92 million km², which is 0.38 km² above the 1700s and 1800s or pre-industrial (PI) levels. This would not appear to be consistent with claims of unprecedented sea ice losses in recent decades. Also, CO2 peaked at only ~280 ppm during the Last Interglacial (LIG), which is approximately the same as the PI CO2 concentration.  And yet due to the additional 60-75 W/m² shortwave Arctic forcing during that interglacial relative to today, there was “a consistently ice-free LIG Arctic from early August until early October” from about 130,000 to 115,000 years before present (Diamond et al., 2021). (Polar bears – thought to be dependent on summer sea ice presence to hunt seal – nonetheless survived an ice-free Arctic for millennia.) With both an ice-free Arctic summer and 5.5 million km² sea ice coverage minima at 280 ppm, as well as 5.9 million km² sea ice coverage minima values for 380 to 390 ppm (2002-’06), the CO2 concentration’s effect on Arctic sea ice extent seems to be entirely non-determinative. Image Source: Diamond et al., 2021 Image Source: NASA Image Source: Diamond et al., 2021 and NASA Several other studies also affirm the sea ice losses observed via satellite in recent decades are not unusual or unprecedented when compared to past centuries. For example, the sea ice duration in the Western Arctic lasted 7 to 9 months per year during the 1500s, 1600s, and 1700s, but from about 1820 to today, sea ice coverage has steadily lasted 11 to 11.5 months per year (Porter et al., 2019). Image Source: Porter et al., 2019 Beaufort Sea temperatures were “up to 3°C” warmer than the 2000s between about 1885 and 1935 (Durantou et al., 2012), and thus the duration of the sea ice coverage averaged 1.1 months per year less than observed in recent decades. Image Source: Durantou et al., 2012 The modern West Greenland regional sea ice extent “during the last ~0.3 kyr (0.2 years BP to present)” has spring sea ice last through May, whereas “before 0.3 years BP (2.2-0.3 years BP)” there was “lower than present sea ice conditions” and no sea ice present during the months of April and May (Kolling et al., 2018). Image Source: Kolling et al., 2018

Arctic sea ice extent sees ’14-year plateau with a slight gain’ in ice

    https://rclutz.com/2021/09/23/arctic-ice-in-perspective-2021/   Arctic Ice In Perspective 2021 by Ron Clutz Excerpt: I will use the ever popular NOAA dataset derived from satellite passive microwave sensors.  It sometimes understates the ice extents, but everyone refers to it and it is complete from 1979 to present.  Here’s what NOAA reports (in M km2): We are frequently told that only the March maximums and the September minimums matter, since the other months are only transitional between the two.  So the graph above shows the mean ice extent, averaging the two months March and September. We have 8 more days to go in September 2021, so that number is a low-ball estimate (4.9M km2) that will likely go higher. If I were adding this to the Ice House of Mirrors, the name would be The X-Ray Ice Mirror, because it looks into the structure of the time series.   For even more clarity and simplicity, here is the table: NOAA NH Annual Average Ice Extents (in M km2).  Sea Ice Index v3.0 (here) Year Average Change Rate of Change 1979 11.697 1996 11.353 -0.344 -0.020 per year 2007 9.405 -1.949 -0.177 per year 2021 9.773  +0.368 +0.026 per year The satellites involve rocket science, but this does not.  There was a small loss of ice extent over the first 17 years, then a dramatic downturn for 11 years, 9 times the rate as before. That was followed by the current 14-year plateau with a slight gain comparable to the beginning loss.  All the fuss is over that middle period, and we know what caused it.  A lot of multi-year ice was flushed out through the Fram Strait, leaving behind more easily melted younger ice. The effects from that natural occurrence bottomed out in 2007. Kwok et al say this about the Variability of Fram Strait ice flux: The average winter area flux over the 18-year record (1978–1996) is 670,000 km2, ;7% of the area of the Arctic Ocean. The winter area flux ranges from a minimum of 450,000 km2 in 1984 to a maximum of 906,000 km2 in 1995. . .The average winter volume flux over the winters of October 1990 through May 1995 is 1745 km3 ranging from a low of 1375 km3 in the 1990 flux to a high of 2791 km3 in 1994. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261010602/download Conclusion: Some complain it is too soon to say Arctic Ice is recovering, or that 2007 is a true change point.  The same people were quick to jump on a declining period after 1996 as evidence of a “Death Spiral.” Footnote: No one knows what will happen to Arctic ice. Except maybe the polar bears. And they are not talking. Except, of course, to the admen from Coca-Cola

20% Increase In Arctic Sea Ice Volume from 2020

  https://realclimatescience.com/2021/08/20-increase-in-arctic-sea-ice-volume/ by Tony Heller Arctic sea ice volume is up 20% from last year and is just below the 2004-2013 average. FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20210830.png (1337×1113) Antarctic sea ice extent is close to a record high. OSI-420 | osisaf.metsis.met.no NOAA says earth just experienced the hottest month ever. But the ice forgot to melt. NOAA

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