‘Academic embarrassment’: Prof. Jon Krosnick Exposed for ‘faulty’ climate polls — ‘Skewed, propagandized and presented intellectually dishonest and shallow polling analysis’ (Krosnick@Stanford.edu)


By: - Climate DepotJune 21, 2010 1:06 PM

Climate Depot Editorial

Stanford University’s Jon Krosnick (Krosnick@Stanford.edu) has either been distorting climate polling to suit his ideological position for years or he is an utterly incompetent pollster. The solid bet is on the former.

Professor Krosnick’s polling results are so woeful that both Pew Research Center Survey and Gallup polling recently took the time to harshly reprimand him for his shoddy work.

See: Warming propagandist Prof. Krosnick exposed: Pew research ‘says that Krosnick’s survey is marred by faulty methodology. …used words that encourged a positive response’

Polling propaganda Prof. Krosnick slapped down by Gallup Polling! Recent polling ‘shows demonstrable drops in Americans’ acknowledgment of and concern about global warming’)

Krosnick has been skewing polling results on global warming for years and has been getting caught every time.

See: Flashback 2008: Krosnick’s long history of climate propaganda: ‘Krosnick invents a consensus position: climate change is occurring. But this is a meaningless assertion, devoid of any scientific value the public can expect psychologists to be engaged in brainwashing them into accepting political propaganda’ — ‘Krosnick conducted a poll amongst the public, to see if their beliefs match those of the scientists, but neglected to poll scientists to establish their views’

The latest Krosnick academic embarrassment started with his June 8, 2010 oped in the New York Times. (See: Huh? Stanford U. Prof. Krosnick: ‘Huge majorities of Americans still believe earth has been gradually warming as result of humans & want gov’t regs to stop it’)

Krosnick’s apparent eagerness to skew, propagandize and present intellectually dishonest and shallow polling analysis, simply stuns anyone with even a rudimentary familiarity with recent global warming polls.

The Financial Post’s Lawrence Solomon reveals some of Krosnick’s tactics in a June 21, 2010 article. According to the Financial Post, Krosnick did not release his full report for public scrutiny nor did he show the public the context for his questions.

The Financial Post reports that Krosnick lumped the phrase “global warming” in with “the environment.” Here is the question Krosnick asked: “What do you think will be the most serious problem facing the world in the future if nothing is done to stop it?” According to the paper, when put this way, 25% of the public responded with “Global warming/the environment.” But Krosnick doesn’t tell us how many of that 25% choose global warming versus the myriad of other environmental issues.

What is most shocking about this point is that for two years running, all major polling has consistently revealed that not only is global warming/climate change the issue of least concern, but it is the lowest concern among all ENVIRONMENTAL issues!

See: 1) March 2010: How could Americans show less concern?! Gallup Poll: Americans rank global warming DEAD LAST (8 out of 8) among ENVIRONMENTAL issues — Not all issues! — Only 28% of Americans worry ‘a great deal’ about global warming — Water and air pollution, extinctions, deforestation, toxic waste, all rank among higher concerns;

2) March 2009: Gallup survey found global warming ranked dead last in the U.S. among ENVIRONMENTAL issues – 8th out of 8 Env. Issues; —

3) Climate Fears Fading: International Survey: ‘People around the world view fresh water crisis as planet’s top environmental problem’ – August 18, 2009

4) March 2010: Rasmussen: 72% of American voters don’t believe global warming is a ‘very serious problem’

5) Gallup: Environmental concerns hit 20-year low in U.S – March 2010

6) Gallup Polling: ‘It may be that the continuing doubts about global warming put forth by conservatives and others are having an effect’

7) Gallup Poll: ’48% of Americans believe ‘global warming is generally exaggerated’ — ‘Americans now less convinced than at any time since 1997!’ – March 2010 — Gallup: Concern is ‘reverting to levels recorded when Gallup began tracking global warming measures more than a decade ago’ — ‘In 1997, 31% said global warming’s effects had been exaggerated; last year, 41% said the same, and this year the number is 48%’

8) I’m a free fallin, I’m a free fallin: Rasmussen Poll: ‘Only the Democrat base (35%) now thinks climate change is man-made’ – Feb. 2010 — ’47% now think global warming is naturally-occurring, cyclical phenomenon’ — ‘Belief that human activity is the primary cause of global warming has declined significantly’

9) Zogby Poll: More Americans Have Little or No Concern About Climate Change

10) Climate Depot’s (Pre-Climategate) Polling Fact Sheet: ‘More Americans believe in haunted houses than man-made global warming’ – 37% vs. 36%

(Note: The above are a very, very small sample of recent polling. For a more complete list see below)

For Krosnick to try to pull this low-brow tactic of combining climate and environment as though the public treats them identical, reveals that he is either ignorant of wealth of recent polls or he is deliberately trying to con the public and his own Stanford University.

The Financial Post further explains some of the sleazy polling tactics Krosnick regularly employs:

Krosnick gets different results than other pollsters do by asking questions that some might consider bizarre. For example, when people told him that they didn’t believe global warming was happening, he asked them to pretend they did by asking them, “Assuming that global warming is happening, do you think a rise in the world’s temperature would be caused mostly by things people do, mostly by natural causes, or about equally by things people do and by natural causes? He then lumped the pretend response from people who don’t believe in global warming with a similar question asked of people who weren’t pretending about their belief in global warming. The result of the merger of these two groups was: 30% blame global warming on humans, 25% blame global warming on natural causes, and 45% believe humans and natural causes are about equally to blame. In the New York Times oped, Krosnick summarized this finding by pretenders and believers as “75% of respondents said that human behavior was substantially responsible for any warming that has occurred,” even though many of those 75% didn’t believe that global warming was happening at all. [End excerpt]

Poor Professor Krosnick. One headline last week said it all: Krosnick’s Polling Con Job: ‘When you don’t like the poll numbers, make up your own poll’

The poor professor has not only been caught apparently manipulating data, but his methods have now been exposed for the entire world to see. Krosnick’s academic integrity has now been elevated to the level of the “used car salesman” tactics of the UN IPCC and the Climategate professors.

Shame on you, Mr. Krosnick.

Krosnick has to be given credit for one thing — the man was ambitious to even think he could hoodwink his colleagues, Stanford University, other polling organizations, the blogosphere, and the public. But Krosnic has failed – utterly and embarrassingly failed.

The Financial Post also revealed: “[Krosnick] also chastises the press for interviewing global warming skeptics along with global warming advocates, saying this creates in the public mind the impression that the science is not settled on global warming. 6% of articles on global warming last year included the views of skeptics, a percentage Krosnick evidently views as too high.”

Krosnick’s ideology has sadly clouded his academic integrity.

Roger Pielke Jr. Duped By Krosnick?

The one surprise out of all of this is the only man Krosnick appears to have duped is Prof. Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado in Boulder. Pielke Jr. approvingly cited Krosnick’s “faulty” polling in a June 9, 2010 blog titled “The Battle for Public Opinion has Been Over.”

Pielke Jr., agreeing with Krosnick wrote: “As I have said for many years, and documented in The Climate Fix, the battle for public opinion on climate change has been won by those who argue that there is a profound human influence on climate and action is warranted.”

Pielke Jr. has cited Krosnick’s work at other times as well. In a March 15, 2010 blog he wrote: “Jon Krosnick of Stanford University argues that the recent issues in climate science have done very little to alter public opinion in the United States on climate change…Those wanting to continue to argue politics through science will find Krosnick’s analysis unwelcome. However, the fact of the matter is that the battle over public opinion on climate change has long been won by those arguing for a human influence and a need for action.”

What say you now of Krosnick’s exposed “faulty” polling rubbish, Professor Pielke Jr.? (Update: Pielke Jr. Responds to Climate Depot:The Climate Fix will help set to you straight on this Marc, I conclude: “Political will for action is and has been plenty strong enough for action to occur” (from p. 43). You can see the full analysis when the book is released shortly.” — Morano Response: “Thanks Roger. “Political will” is “plenty strong” for climate “action?” Hardly. Sen. Kerry is afraid to even utter phrase “global warming.” That “plenty strong” sentiment appears to be hiding very well. But the main point is: Are you willing to defend Prof. Krosnick? He really does appear to be somewhat of a polling charlatan.”)

Climate Depot’s Exclusive Polling Archive: (for the full 21 pages go here)

March 2010: Rasmussen: 72% of American voters don’t believe global warming is a ‘very serious problem’

Gallup: Environmental concerns hit 20-year low in U.S – March 2010

Cheers! Gallup Polling: ‘It may be that the continuing doubts about global warming put forth by conservatives and others are having an effect’

A Victory for Science! Gallup Poll: ’48% of Americans believe ‘global warming is generally exaggerated’ — ‘Americans now less convinced than at any time since 1997!’ – March 2010 — Gallup: Concern is ‘reverting to levels recorded when Gallup began tracking global warming measures more than a decade ago’ — ‘In 1997, 31% said global warming’s effects had been exaggerated; last year, 41% said the same, and this year the number is 48%’

I’m a free fallin, I’m a free fallin: Rasmussen Poll: ‘Only the Democrat base (35%) now thinks climate change is man-made’ – Feb. 2010 — ’47% now think global warming is naturally-occurring, cyclical phenomenon’ — ‘Belief that human activity is the primary cause of global warming has declined significantly’

Zogby Poll: More Americans Have Little or No Concern About Climate Change

Fox News Poll: Majority of Americans Don’t See Warming As Crisis — issue of at ‘bottom of the national to-do list’

Cheers! Rasmussen Poll: 50% Now Say Global Warming Caused by Long-Term Planetary — ‘all-time high among Americans’ — ’34% say climate change is due primarily to human activity — down from 47% in 2008′

Gallup survey found global warming ranked dead last in the U.S. among ENVIRONMENTAL issues – 8th out of 8 Env. Issues – March 2009 – Excerpt: (Air and water pollution, toxic waste, animal and plant extinction and loss of tropical rainforests, all ranked as greater concerns than global warming.) “Since more Americans express little to no worry about global warming than say this about extinction, global warming is clearly the environmental issue of least concern to them. In fact, global warming is the only issue for which more Americans say they have little to no concern than say they have a great deal of concern.”

Yet Another Poll: Politico Voters Poll: Global Warming ranked dead last again! ‘Just 4% ranked climate change as the top issue’ – Oct. 20, 2009

Yet Another New Poll: FT/Harris Poll: Nearly 3 of 4 US adults not buying man-made climate fears – Oct. 22, 2009

Rasmussen Poll: ‘Belief in ghosts’ and ‘Belief in global warming consensus’ now in statistical tie? — 59% Say Scientists Disagree ‘Significantly’ Over Global Warming – April 2010

Gallup Poll Editor: Gore has ‘Failed’ — ‘The public is just not that concerned’ about global warming – May 5, 2009 – Excerpt: Gallup Poll Editor Frank Newport says he sees no evidence that Al Gore’s campaign against global warming is winning. “It’s just not caught on,” says Newport. “They have failed.” Or, more bluntly: “Any measure that we look at shows Al Gore’s losing at the moment. The public is just not that concerned.” [...] Ask people to name their biggest concerns, and just 1 percent to 2 percent cite the environment. “The environment doesn’t show up at all,” says Newport. “It’s Al Gore’s greatest frustration,” says Newport. “We seem less concerned than more about global warming over the years.”

Gallup Poll: ‘Record-High 41% of Americans Now Say Global Warming is Exaggerated’ – March 11, 2009

Pew survey: Global warming ranks dead last as priority for Americans – Ranked 20th out of 20 issues – January 2009

NPR survey: ‘Climate Change’ finishes dead last in yet another voter poll – 12th out of 12 issues! – July 29, 2009

Bloomberg News Poll: 58% of Americans view global warming as ‘minor threat’ or ‘no real threat at all’ – September 15, 2009 – Excerpt: 31 percent [of Americans] say climate change is a minor threat and just 27 percent saying it’s no real threat at all.

‘Climate Change’ ranks dead last [again] in nationwide Bloomberg poll — Only 2% of Americans call it ‘most important issue’ – September 22, 2009

Polling: ‘More Americans believe in haunted houses than man-made global warming’ – 37% vs. 36% – October 2009

Gallup: ‘Number of Americans who say media exaggerated global warming jumped to record 41% in 2009′

Pew Poll Eye Opener: ‘The small minority that has heard a lot about cap-and-trade opposes carbon emissions limits by two-to-one (64% to 32%).’ (Oct. 2009)

Pew Poll: Decline in belief in global warming ‘has been particularly pronounced among independents’; 22% drop in 1 year!

Pew Poll: Even Democrats growing more skeptical; 8% drop in Dems who are convinced of global warming since 2008

MIT Climate Scientist: ‘Ordinary people see through man-made climate fears — but educated people are very vulnerable’ – July 2009

Global Warming beaten out by ‘humane treatment of farm animals’ and ‘obesity in America’ — global warming finishes last in yet another poll

Fading Fast: ‘Climate Change’ ranks dead last in nationwide Bloomberg poll — Only 2% of Americans call it ‘most important issue’ – Sept. 2009

Na na na hey hey hey goodbye! Pew Survey: Global warming ranks dead last as concern for Americans — 21 out of 21 – Jan. 2010 – ‘Global warming ranks at the bottom of the public’s list of priorities; just 28% consider this a top priority, the lowest measure for any issue tested in the survey’

Poll: 70% of Americans Don’t Blame Global Warming for Extreme Weather

Survey: Concern in Europe about global warming plunges from 30% to 18% in less than a year

Pew Survey: Only 6% of Scientists Self-Identify as Republicans

Poll: Just 37% Call Global Warming High Priority — ‘Significant drop from 2007′ (CBS/NYT Poll Dec. 2009)

CNN Poll: Majority of Americans (53%) now skeptical of man-made global warming – Dec. 2009 — 22% ‘believe global warming is caused natural changes unrelated to man’ — 31% say man-made global warming is still an ‘unproven theory’ — ‘Only 45% believed global warming is a proven fact…down from 56% in 2007′

Pre-ClimateGate Poll: Harris Poll: ‘Big Drop in Those Who Believe That Global Warming Is Coming – ‘lowest number recorded’ — Only 41% think it is ‘a very serious problem’ — ‘Only 17% of GOP and 38% of Independents believe global warming should be treated as a very serious problem’

March 2010: How could Americans show less concern?! Gallup Poll: Americans rank global warming DEAD LAST (8 out of 8) among ENVIRONMENTAL issues — Not all issues! — Only 28% of Americans worry ‘a great deal’ about global warming — Water and air pollution, extinctions, deforestation, toxic waste, all rank among higher concerns

Et Tu? California Poll: ‘Fewer people think global warming is a serious threat to economy and quality of life’

Florida Poll: ‘Entire premise of [cap-and-trade] legislation might be misguided in the public mind’ — ‘Only 35% believe global warming is proved, while 57 percent say it isn’t an established fact. By a 34-50 percent spread, voters oppose the cap-and-trade legislation’

Climate Fears Fading: International Survey: ‘People around the world view fresh water crisis as planet’s top environmental problem’ – August 18, 2009

’73% of Canadians want climate policy delay for economic reasons or doubts over scientific certainty’

Germans lose fear of global warming after long, hard winter: Worry over warming drops 20% to 42%

Uk Poll: Sharp decline in public’s belief in global warming — Only 1 in 5 believe it is man-made

BBC: ‘Dramatic shift’ — Climate skepticism ‘on the rise’ — 73% say man-made warming is ‘not yet proven’ or ‘propaganda’ or ‘not happening’ – Feb. 2010′

Et Tu? Most French — 74% — oppose idea of carbon tax

Science is prevailing: ‘Less than half of UK population believes human activity to blame for global warming’ — ‘Ministers have failed in their campaign to persuade the public that the greenhouse effect is a serious threat requiring urgent action’

Poll: Half of UK public believes there is no proof global warming caused by humans – Dec. 2009

UK Greenie George Monbiot: ‘We’re losing. Climate change denial is spreading like a contagious disease’

Canadian concern over climate change plummeting

UK ‘is less concerned about climate change than any other country in the world’ — ‘Just 15% worry about climate change…lowest figure for any of the 12 countries surveyed…down from 26% last year’

Moment of Clarity down under: ‘Australians care less about climate change — concern dropped 14% — ‘The largest drop among the developed nations surveyed’

Dem Sen. Nelson ‘My mail is running about 99-to-1 against’ climate bill

‘Phones are quiet’: Congresswoman admits she’s ‘so disappointed’ at lack of phone calls in support of climate bill

Liberal Senators Dodge Tough Climate Votes…’signaling that global warming is quickly becoming a political third rail’

Flashback 2008: Krosnick’s long history of climate propaganda: ‘Krosnick invents a consensus position: climate change is occurring. But this is a meaningless assertion, devoid of any scientific value the public can expect psychologists to be engaged in brainwashing them into accepting political propaganda’ — ‘Krosnick conducted a poll amongst the public, to see if their beliefs match those of the scientists, but neglected to poll scientists to establish their views’
Warming propagandist Prof. Krosnick exposed: Pew research ‘says that Krosnick’s survey is marred by faulty methodology. …used words that encourged a positive response’ (Krosnick@Stanford.edu) — Pew: ‘This is known in the polling world as acquiescence bias…almost all (surveys), except Mr. Krosnick’s, show a significant decline in belief in climate change’Reality Check: Climate Depot’s (Pre-Climategate) Polling Fact Sheet: ‘More Americans believe in haunted houses than man-made global warming’ – 37% vs. 36%

Polling propaganda Prof. Krosnick slapped down by Gallup Polling! Recent polling ‘shows demonstrable drops in Americans’ acknowledgment of and concern about global warming’ — Frank Newport, Editor in Chief, of The Gallup Polling: ‘At a time of concerted effort by those concerned about climate change to raise Americans’ consciousness about its existence and dire potential consequences, American public opinion on the issue has moved in the exact opposite direction’

Huh? Stanford U. Prof. Krosnick: ‘Huge majorities of Americans still believe earth has been gradually warming as result of humans & want gov’t regs to stop it’

Krosnick’s Polling Con Job: ‘When you don’t like the poll numbers, make up your own poll’